posted on Feb, 3 2006 @ 11:19 PM
Who would win obviously depends on the scenario.
You've got to consider morale, terrain, politics, etc.
Let me see if I can cook up a plausible scenario for the conflict first and foremost... nope.
The nature of the conflict will dictate where the war is fought, how the people on each side feel about it, what other nations get involved, and how
quick either side is to take the offensive.
Scenario One: Shattered Union. Probability Factor: 0.0001%
The year is 2028. Since the Bush impeachment in 2007, the Republican Party has virtually ceased to exist. The Libertarian party fills the void in
Mid-Western and South-Western State Governments but is virtually powerless on the national level. As globalism squeezes the American economy, Liberals
embrace the idea of a North American Union, in the model of the now full federalized European and African Unions. They believe that a global
federation is the only way to cure currency disparities and reign in America's debt problems.
The Democrats easily pass the necessary amendments to the Constitution. Talks between Canada, Mexico, and the United States begin in Ottawa, but an
impasse almost immediately results over economic matters involving Mexico and portions of the United States. Canada would prefer to seek membership in
the more prosperous EU, but is interested in the Northern-most states, and the East and West coasts. From the North-West Border of Arizona to the
North East border of North Carolina, the Canadians see only an economic liability. Talks adjourn briefly, until the EU grants admission to Canada,
with an open door to any territories annexed by Canada within 180 days.
Anti-globalists and Conservative Americans panic. Every state south of the so called "Ottawa Line" mobilizes it's national guard, Mexico, heavily
insulted by events at the Ottawa talks also mobilizes in support of the Southern States.
Overnight, federal troops enter Austin, Texas and arrest the governor, the seniormost Libertarian governor in America and leader of the anti-globalist
camp. Within hours of the news, the Joint Chiefs of Staff stage a coup. By nightfall, an emergency session of the New York state legislature has voted
for secession and applied for annexation by Canada. Massachusetts and Vermont follow suit overnight, and the next morning so do Maine, Rhode Island,
New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and California.
The Provisional Military Government declares the secession illegal and orders the seceeding states occupied. Canadian troops are ordered in to
America ups the ante by invading the Ontario Province, cutting Canada in half.
The European Union, which has already admitted Canada, immediately declares war on America.
China makes a secret pact with Canada- they will invade Alaska and then support the liberation of Ontario, but Canada must demand possession of Alaska
as reparations and then sell it to China.
Russia, not economically strong enough for a large mobilization provides logistical support for the Chinese operation and sends advisors to help China
deal with the cold conditions in Alaska.
Mexico sides with America in return for a promise of union between the two after the war. They will attack South, attempting to secure Venezuela's
oil for their ally.
America will attempt to cut the Atlantic in half with it's Submarine fleet and win a quick victory in Eastern Canada.
The Europeans will attempt reinforce the Canadians by air and send empty convoys. They hope to send American submarines back to port for munitions,
where they can be destroyed from the air, if only they can keep Canada on its feet long enough. Once the seas are open, the Europeans believe they
will be able to land enough armor and artillery to free Ontario and break into the Great Plains.
China has no interest in ending the war. No matter who wins, nobody will be able to stop them from taking Alaska, and if America is disarmed at the
end, and that will give them the oil leverage they need to make a peaceful conquest of Japan.
By this time, the Europeans have parity in the air thanks to earlier downturns in the US economy, however the US remains superior at sea- there simply
hasn't been enough time to overtake us in all fields. It all comes down to who wants it more on the ground, and that proves to be Canadians and
American forces are plagued by mutinies and desertions, and volunteer forces, while fiercely loyal, prove tactically inproficient and simply waste
American forces in Ontario are shattered first and run South in disarray. Shortly thereafter, American forces in the Northern Appalachians, with their
Western flank wide open, surrender. Mexico Texas quickly hammer out an annexation deal- the Autonomous Republic Of Texas becomes defined on it's
Eastern border by the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers, as far North as Topeka, Kansas, with it's Eastern border at the foot of the Rockies. It's
widely (and correctly) believed that Texas and Mexico have not so much achieved peace as merely an armistice for 20 years.
Scenario 2: The Pillars of Hercules. Probability Factor: 0.0%
The date is December 1st, 2012. The Democratic party has just lost control of the Congress and Presidency again, having been saddled with the blame
for a major economic downturn beyond any administration's control. America needs to reduce the price of oil to get it's economy turned around. The
new administration immediately has the CIA cook up an Arab-Israeli War. Israel, acting on faulty intelligence supplied by the United States, makes a
series of major mistakes and quickly finds itself clinging to existence. America then declares war on Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Jordan. A CIA sponsored
Coup takes place in Saudi- Saudi declares war on America.
Our Islamic pawns realize what has happened and blow the whistle. The European Union declares the Straits of Gibraltar closed to American warships.
The UN withdraws from New York in protest and meets elsewhere- The US is kicked off the Security Council.
The US calls Europes bluff, sending fighters from the USS Reagan to test the Europeans over Gibraltar. A fight ensues, and several European aircraft
are downed. US Marines land in Southern Spain, securing a small buffer zone near the Strait so that the battlegroup can enter the med- they meet no
immediate opposition. The Marines continue to hold their positions however to keep an open line of supply. Europe Issues an ultimatum- withdraw your
troops and leave the Med. When the United States balks, the USS Ronald Reagan is attacked. The ship simply cannot come with the size of the attack,
and is destroyed, along with several troop carriers.
American forces in Europe attempt to take the cities hosting them and mount a defense. The Europeans are slow to make a strong reaction, but the issue
is not seriously in doubt. Both sides declare war.
The UK is deeply divided, some rather ridiculously believing that the war is somehow a French/German idea; they declare neutrality but pledge to
commit forces if an EU nation faces a full-scale invasion. Turkey is subverted by Islamic radicals who immediately declare war on Israel.
Russia sees a chance to play both sides against the middle and does so- they go into Turkey to put down the Revolution, pledging to stay neuteral and
return Turkey to self government when the war is over.
China stays quiet, examining the angles, trying to decide whether the invade Japan, Siberia, or neither.
As Israel begins to lose thanks to the delays, and America realizes that the simple plan has gone horribly wrong, their first priority is getting out
of the war with Europe and getting the Arabs back under control. To accomplish this, they'll stay off the continent, going for North Africa, bound
for Egypt, and try to pressure the Europeans from the air.
The Europeans, anxious to assert the strength of international law without making the war too costly, will feigh disinterest in the war, keeping it to
an aerial standoff over the Med, until American forces have reached Egypt, then they'll spring an invasion across in the American rear, to cut our
forces off and force a surrender.
America will crush the Europeans in North Africa, utterly shocking everyone yet again with the ferocity of American firepower. Unfortunately, it will
be the single greatest pyrrhic victory in history, with America's relationships with most of it's best friends going straight to hell, Russia ending
up in control of Turkey and the E. Med, America having lost a lot of troops and equipment at it's European bases, etc etc. Nobody will really be
toast afterward, but nobody will be happy.