posted on Oct, 16 2007 @ 09:53 PM
Russia is not a true ally of Iran, nor is it much concerned with Iran's oil, nuclear and military ambitions, or political system. In fact in my
opinion for Russia this is not about Iran at all. This whole conflict of words is about the US, and its rising influence and involvement in Southwest
Asia - this is what truly concerns the Kremlin. Russia is espectially concerned with the Caspian sphere, and the implications of its vast oil
resources and unstable governments.
US has been rapidly encrouching on the Caspian region, and around Russia as a whole. On one side you got the US-sponsored revolt in Ukraine and the
missile shield in Poland and Czech Republic. Ok - the Eastern Europeans are lured to the US side and want to suck up to the US and US wants to suck
up to them - I can understand that.
But then in the East you got Georgia, which fell to a pro-US dictator in a coup-disguised-as-a-revolution. Azerbaijan has suddenly changed its
political stance to pro-US soon after as well - and as a result you now got a Caspian oil pipeline operating for the US and Team. Furthemore US has
been snitching around Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan ever since the start of the War on Terror. It even tried to fire up a few color-coded
revolutions there to, alas with no success. And now Iran is surrounded by the US - and you got an equivalent of two rabid dogs staring at each other
and thinking God-knows-what.
All this maneuvering around the Caspian must have Putin pretty concerned. Only a decade ago Russia had the region under its influence - there was a
nice balance and everyone had more of less of an agreement about who gets what resources in the Caspian.
Now that US arrived to the show, everything changed. The pro-US Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan and sparring with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Iran about the
Sea and its resources. Except for Iran and Russia, political situation in these countries is very shaky, and you can bet there would be several coups
or revolts there in the next decade - in large part thanks to US lobbying local interests. It is a very complex situation, but these are the basics
as I understand it.
And now Russia understands that if Iran gets taken down or severly weakened, US will dominate the Caspian region. Russia will be even more surrounded
by the US-Bloc, and the Middle East will be out of its reach. This is what it boils down to - US is quickly trying to get the largest slice of the
natural-resources pie and create a buffer around Russia at the same time, even if it is biting off more than it can chew (Iraq). US has been setting
its sights on nearly all countries surrounding Russia. Just look at the map:
The Baltics join NATO and become outspoken critics of Russia.
Accusations against Belarus.
Missile shield in Poland and Czech Republic.
Pro-US uprising in Ukraine and NATO military exercises in the Black Sea.
Pro-US coup in Georgia.
Sudden and unexpected change to pro-US stance in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
Invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan and US positioning its forces in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, solidifying ties with them.
US grinding its teeth at North Korea.
If this does not set a pattern, then I don't know what would. Iran and China are the last strong powers left between Russia and the US buffer.
Russia's growing alliance with Iran is out of necessity, and if US maintains its aggressive behavior than Russia might just elevate its friendship
with Iran and China into a true military alliance. This is out of necessity more than anything, and Iran couldn't be happier. Everyone is focused
on oil and terrorists, but there is more to the War on Terror than this.
I am not implying that US is trying to invade or directly threaten Russia, but it might be preparing for the next Cold War, or least insuring that it
has a hold on considerable oil resources for the near future. The Caspian region is being dragged into war. I would watch Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan carefully, not just Iran.
[edit on 16-10-2007 by maloy]