The Voice of Osama bin Laden: Faked?

"Osama�s voice on tape proves that the leader of al Qaeda is still alive. Or does it?"
Link:
www.technologyreview.com...

Found this interesting article.
No, it wasn't done by the CIA or any other intelligence organization, but it is from MIT.
It gives a few fairly indepth analysis and three possibilities:

"That�s good enough to detect some kinds of deception, but not all. Here are three possibilities:

1. The tape was made by an impressionist trying to imitate bin Laden�s voice. Good impressionists can mimic the tone and pacing of their subject, but they often overemphasize obvious quirks, much as a caricaturist exaggerates dominant physical features. That makes it amusing to hear, but it won�t fool an analyst. Impressionists are not good at catching the more subtle features that even simple voice recognition software uses. This kind of counterfeit can almost certainly be ruled out.

2. The tape was made by cutting and pasting true excerpts from bin Laden past speeches. Much of the tape could be unchanged from a prior recording. The tough part for the counterfeiter was adding mention of Saddam�s capture, where words and phrases had to be rearranged. To detect such a forgery, a good analyst would listen for discontinuities in the background noise, or small blips indicating the tape was spliced. Digital processing by the tape maker can remove such artifacts, but they leave behind their own; low-pass filters, for example, create easily detected changes in the spectrum of the background hiss. (That�s why true audiophiles dislike noise suppression filters. It is readily noticed by a trained ear.) Such cutting and pasting, even with digital filtering, would have been detected by the CIA. Digital processing can be detected in other ways; for example, it sometimes generates false frequencies (called aliases). Such tampering would have raised suspicions. Therefore this scenario can probably be ruled out as well.

3. The tape was a recording of one of Osama bin Laden�s sons, who was deliberately trying to sound like his father. This is, in my mind, the most likely hypothesis."


I think its all mainly theory and hypothesis.
What do you folks think? Probable? Possible? Maybe? No? Yes?

The author goes on to give his opinion/scenerio:

"Here is my scenario:

Osama bin Laden was killed at Tora Bora�or his dialysis machine was destroyed and he died shortly afterwards. The strongest evidence for this is the absence of new videos. Al Qaeda fears that news of his death will shock and discourage many of its supporters. There is no other leader who can hold together this diverse and contentious organization, so they believe that they need to keep the news secret. The initial tapes they released were old recordings of former speeches. But many supporters were concerned. They, like me, noticed the absence of videos, and of speeches with clear date indicators. Al Qaeda knew a video counterfeit would be detected, but they noticed that Saad sounded a lot like his father. They had him listen to his father�s speeches, and practice enunciating them with a similar style. It took many attempts, but Saad's voice on the final tape was good enough to deceive not only al Qaeda�s foreign legions, but even some analysts at the CIA.

And if my personal experience is indicative, the tapes may even have fooled one or more of Osama bin Laden�s wives."


Here's another thought....it may be quite possible that 'sources' within and outside the US know that OBL is indeed dead but do not want to publically CONFIRM this, being that it would be counter-productive in finding and locating members of Al Qaeda and terrorist organization that are associated with Al Qaeda, and would 'strangle' any type of information (ie: internet chatter, etc.) that would help thwart any possible Al Qaeda planned activities in the US or abroad.

What you folks think on this article and the information and hypothesis's given?


regards
seekerof

[Edited on 23-1-2004 by Seekerof]

i agree Seekerof, I've been telling people that Bin Laden is dead....probably from kidney failure or a bunker bomb (check where in the world is binladen thread)

your theory is totally plausible to me.

It has allways been hard for me to believe a six and a half foot tall arab on a kidney machine would be that hard to find

I agree. Most likely already a gonner. All thats left is a fingernail in a pile of ruble at the back of a cave. But they cant say that, support would vanish.

Originally posted by dreamrebel
I agree. Most likely already a gonner. All thats left is a fingernail in a pile of ruble at the back of a cave. But they cant say that, support would vanish.

exactly!!! support would definitely vanish!

Not that I'm sad that Bin Laden is dead, but if he IS dead, and the news is released, we can expect Bush for another term. NOOOOO! **Starts to cry**

Although I do hope Bin Laden is dead.

[STAY COOL)
-prophetmike

Killing or capturing bin laden would be the WORST thing to happen to bush, or really those that pull his strings

Strangely, wouldn't it make a good ploy or gambit for the US and the UK to come out officially and publically say that Bin Laden IS dead? Think of this way....in doing so, wouldn't it force him to 'surface' with a video, instead of his "timely" video releases, and proclaim otherwise? Maybe even give further details as to his where abouts?


regards
seekerof

[Edited on 23-1-2004 by Seekerof]

Whats best for Bush and cronies is to never find Bin Laden and always assume he is alive and threatening the US. That provides endless justification. He is probably living large somewhere drinking a vodka tonic.

Whats best for Bush and cronies is to never find Bin Laden and always assume he is alive and threatening the US. That provides endless justification. He is probably living large somewhere drinking a vodka tonic.

Not really. It's been well established that it's not one man doing the terrorism. It's terrorists. Capturing or killing the boss would be a good thing, but it wouldn't be the end.

Would probably loose quite a bit of what little world support we have too.

Since I haven't seen any convincing evidence that Bin Laden is alive, I think that its very possible that his voice is being faked in some fashion. Depending on the quality of the audio tape or the quality of the audience listening, I doubt you'd need much in the way of a sound-alike to continue the fakery.

Having worked at a recording company in the true 'cut-n-tape' splicing era, this can be easily detected on playback as edit 'pops' and abrupt background noise changes are verily apparent to the trained ear.

Digital editing provides much additional challenges to hear the edits. But it can be done in a modern studio.

It would be interesting to review a study by a pro with documentation and examples, to demonstrate any possible edits.

Is it a definite possibility though smirkley?
The US has released only one Bin Laden tape...the one after 9/11....and prior to Tora Bora.
The rest have been released by Arab news sources....



regards
seekerof

Im thinking his gray matter has been splattered.

Originally posted by Seekerof
Is it a definite possibility though smirkley?
The US has released only one Bin Laden tape...the one after 9/11....and prior to Tora Bora.
The rest have been released by Arab news sources....

Of course it is very possible, but lack of the example recordings in an 'un-touched' format, does nothing to provide evidence of any possibility or otherwise.


The most recent original 'virgin' copy is the only way to give any substance to any sampling analysis results. Any other 're-copy' of the original broadcast would only negatively add to the possibility of 'other' edits being added or modified.



[Edited on 23-1-2004 by smirkley]

Strangely, wouldn't it make a good ploy or gambit for the US and the UK to come out officially and publically say that Bin Laden [bIS dead? Think of this way....in doing so, wouldn't it force him to 'surface' with a video, instead of his "timely" video releases, and proclaim otherwise? Maybe even give further details as to his where abouts?

Seekerof's logic seems so obvious that you have to wonder.

[Edited on 23-1-2004 by deevee]

but deevee, the US/UK didn't do that!

Don't tell me they didn't have chances to (and still do have chances) to bomb someplace (anywhere in mountains of afghanistan) and say that they got Bin Laden...

but they can't because then the whole "war on terrorism" would lose momentum.

that's what i was getting at. Since they didn't do the obvious, there must be something sinister going on.

I know this is gonna sound really lame and I am skeptical of whether I believe this or not but, I worked with a gentleman whose nephew was a army ranger and the nephew (after many drinks) stated that they had OBL in their sights in the begining of the war and they could not get the green light for the kill. Like I said I dont know how much I believe this but I thought I'd pass it along.