Why there will NOT be a war with Iran

You would virtually have to be living under a rock not to notice that there has been a ton of speculation about whether or not there will be a war with Iran via the US or Israel - and while there is certainly a lot of talk about it - I am nearly certain that it is ONLY talk.

Are the US and Iran headed for war?

"If ever [US officials] got a smoking gun, where they could directly trace a line between a dead American military person and an Iranian official – my guess is their first inclination would be: 'How do we use this to get the Russians, Chinese, and Europeans to agree to harsher sanctions? How do we use this as leverage to force the Iranians to get serious in these talks?' " says Mr. Pollack, author of "The Persian Puzzle." "I don't think their first inclination is: 'OK, now we can unleash the strike on the Iranians that we have wanted to unleash.' "

While it is way too early to tell if there will be no conflict, and while any variety of things could change in a heartbeat, here are some things to consider.

• China would not pay for a war with Iran
  
• Where would the US get the troops to do this?
  
• Would the US population support this? Probably not.
  
• Will the GOP risk this political suicide?
  
• To many complicated ties in the ME to execute a war like this.
  

Some would say though that the US has already drawn up plans to strike Iran.

MSNBC Article

Most people outside the Pentagon don’t realize that the Defense Department makes plans for every conceivable national security contingency — and quite a few that are almost inconceivable. And by law these plans are reviewed and re-certified every year. There are plans to defend the island of Taiwan if China attacks it. There are plans to attack North Korea in a wide variety of scenarios. What happens if Russia attacks Western Europe? Well, we have a plan for that.

The reality is that this war would be a catastrophe for all involved. Unless there is a dramatic shift in SOMETHING from either side, I do not see this turning into a war.

I think that China is using economic pressure to force the US to reconsider this war. China has major interests in Iran as far as oil goes. They can't allow the US to take control of those oil interests. That would put them in a bad position.

On your things to consider:

"China would not pay for a war with Iran"

As I said, I think they're also threatening to dump their dollar reserves.


"Where would the US get the troops to do this?"

I agree. I think the US military is too far stretched to have a ground war in Iran, especially since they have a 12 million man paramilitary force.


"Would the US population support this? Probably not."

But, what would the US population do about it? Probably nothing.


"Will the GOP risk this political suicide?"

That doesn't matter. Both parties are controlled. The next President, if there is a next President, has already been decided by "them".


"To many complicated ties in the ME to execute a war like this."

I think the Chinese tie is the big one.


If China wasn't a major player in this, I'm sure we would have long since been at war with Iran. But there are clearly some behind the scenes happenings going on to stall this war.

I truly hope you are right, though, and we don't go to war.

I certainly agree the USA will not go to war with Iran, but mainly for economic reasons. Iran is well integrated into the international economic system, an attack on the country will have huge market repurcussions. The Iranians would also almost certainly respond via economic warfare (mine the straits of Hormuz, sink a few oil tankers etc), making the situation worse.

Part of the reason why the administration was so blase in its attitude towards war with Iraq was knowing how cut off it was from international trade and finance. Any war would have minimal economic consequences (it was thought), which is most certainly not the case with Iran.

But, on the other hand, logic has hardly been a strong point for the US leadership since 2001.