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With Oil At Record Highs, Talk Of $200 A Barrel

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posted on Sep, 18 2007 @ 05:26 AM
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With Oil At Record Highs, Talk Of $200 A Barrel


www.247wallst.com

24/7 Wall St. has run three or four pieces recently that suggested there are strong cases for $100 a barrel oil. With the $80 mark reached last week, some oil industry experts do not discount the possibility that crude make get close to $100 this year. Jeff Currie, head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, describes it as "a cyclical bull market for oil". "There is a risk that the oil price will spike to $95 per barrel by the end of this year if the market remains in significant deficit," he told The Telegraph.
(visit the link for the full news article)


Related News Links:
en.wikipedia.org
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
money.cnn.com

Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
$200 Dollar a Barrel Oil Is Bilderberg Plan To Destroy Middle Class

[edit on 18-9-2007 by UM_Gazz]




posted on Sep, 18 2007 @ 05:26 AM
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It is starting to look like we have crossed the barrier into the world of Peak oil. To justify a 8x increase in the price of oil over the last 10 years, there has to be problems with the long term supply. The peak oil theory states, that there will be a decline in production over a few years before it can be proven. I disagree, I believe that with the worlds growing economies that its going to be the needed increases to such oil productions, that will prove peak oil is fact, when the production of oil will not meet demand. This does not include effects of future wars or terrorism related to oil prices.

It might be time to invest in a bike.



www.247wallst.com
(visit the link for the full news article)



posted on Sep, 18 2007 @ 05:36 AM
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When you say "To justify a 8x increase in the price of oil over the last 10 years...", LDragon, the idea that Peak Oil has already been hit makes a lot of sense...

I remember buying petrol at $0.58 per litre in 1998, now it gets as high as $1.30 per litre...

Sure demand has massively increased over this period, but supply doesn't seem to be keeping up. Whether thats due to a lack of will on behalf of oil producing nations, or lack of the resource itself, I don't know...

It makes me wonder whether OPEC and other oil producing nations could even get close to meeting demand at a fair price...

Say $40 USD per barrel of oil or so...

$100 by early next year is a certainty IMO...If the US/Israel pre-empt on Iran, the sky's the limit...Go long oil all the way !


Peace



posted on Sep, 18 2007 @ 05:43 AM
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reply to post by Rilence
 

The thing is there is no justification for the increases in prices of oil. At this time there has been no real decrease in the production of oil, yet the prices just keep going up and up. Then again the demand keeps going up but still not enough to justify the increases in prices we are seeing.

I'm telling ya its a buyers market for bicycles



posted on Sep, 18 2007 @ 08:38 AM
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that fact that 100+ oil is talked about everywhere on the internet makes me believe there is a bubble here and a lot of bad news is already priced into the price of oil. I'm not saying i would bet that oil goes lower, i would rahter bet it does not go as high as everyone thinks.

Oil could trade up to 100 and range from 80 - 100 for a few years. In this scenario , big oil betters would lose huge.



posted on Sep, 18 2007 @ 09:42 AM
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Its a shame that even though the Northern slope of Alaska has more than enough oil to sustain the US for 200+ years, and could cost us a $1.50 or less a gallon at the pump, that we need to monger whats left and jack the prices up. Hell! We would be a self sustaining country with that much oil. but 100+ or less $ a barrel, brought in from other countries is plain rediculous, and its downright robbery.



posted on Sep, 18 2007 @ 10:46 AM
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Originally posted by Xiamen
Its a shame that even though the Northern slope of Alaska has more than enough oil to sustain the US for 200+ years, and could cost us a $1.50 or less a gallon at the pump, that we need to monger whats left and jack the prices up. Hell! We would be a self sustaining country with that much oil. but 100+ or less $ a barrel, brought in from other countries is plain rediculous, and its downright robbery.


I heard that the north slope in Alaska only has like 1 years worth thats easy to get too. I could be wrong, 200 years worth is huge!!! Got any links on that?



posted on Sep, 18 2007 @ 10:49 AM
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Originally posted by psperos
that fact that 100+ oil is talked about everywhere on the internet makes me believe there is a bubble here and a lot of bad news is already priced into the price of oil. I'm not saying i would bet that oil goes lower, i would rahter bet it does not go as high as everyone thinks.

Oil could trade up to 100 and range from 80 - 100 for a few years. In this scenario , big oil betters would lose huge.


But if you added War to that or Terrorists attacks, or God forbid a embargo like in the 70's It would skyrocket.

I believe we are witnessing the end of cheap oil.



posted on Sep, 18 2007 @ 11:12 AM
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Alas, this thread is a duplicate of this one: www.abovetopsecret.com... and needs to be closed.


EDIT: nevermind, I see now that this one tackles the peak oil angle whilst that other one is from prison planet and talks about the bilderberg angle.
.

[edit on 9/18/2007 by Gools]



posted on Sep, 18 2007 @ 07:39 PM
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Originally posted by Rilence
When you say "To justify a 8x increase in the price of oil over the last 10 years...", LDragon, the idea that Peak Oil has already been hit makes a lot of sense...


What does the price of oil have to do with how much oil in the ground? Can anyone show me that there is a obvious or direct relationship?


I remember buying petrol at $0.58 per litre in 1998, now it gets as high as $1.30 per litre...


And back in 1997/1998 oil prices per barrel slumped to 8 USD per barrel, go figure.


Sure demand has massively increased over this period, but supply doesn't seem to be keeping up.


Demand has not massively increased and there is no evidence that suppply is not meeting demand despite the unjustifiably high price.

www.eia.doe.gov...


Whether thats due to a lack of will on behalf of oil producing nations, or lack of the resource itself, I don't know...


It's good to pose questions but what have you done to resolve it before sharing your question with the rest of us?


It makes me wonder whether OPEC and other oil producing nations could even get close to meeting demand at a fair price...


Sure they could and they think they could sustain production at around 25-35 USD per barrel for at least fifty years. Since they are not in fact in charge of prices their opinion hardly matters and they WILL take not be crying about a higher price they can not do much to undermine to start with.


Say $40 USD per barrel of oil or so...


Less and at 40 USD per barrel there is a still vast profits involved.


$100 by early next year is a certainty IMO...If the US/Israel pre-empt on Iran, the sky's the limit...Go long oil all the way !


Peace


I can see how such prices will in fact become a reality but at least i know that there are no geological or production reasons for that happening. If oil prices go there it will be pretty clear that the PTB are pressed for time and can't afford to let the prices rise as gradually as they would have liked.


A multitude of analysts consisting of retired petroleum industry professionals hailing from either the geologic or business side of the house, a smattering of physicists, assorted consultants, and less than a handful of economists have predicted at various times over the past two decades, and with increasing frequency, that world crude oil production would peak at times ranging from 8 to 20+ years after their forecast. Dire effects on world oil prices, the welfare of mankind in general, and the United States’ economy and lifestyle in particular are typically alleged to implicitly follow the predicted peaks. The times for many of these predicted peaks have already come and gone, or will soon do so.

In April 2000 the United States Geological Survey (USGS) released results of the most thorough and methodologically modern assessment of world crude oil and natural gas resources ever attempted. This 5-year study was undertaken "to provide impartial, scientifically based, societally relevant petroleum resource information essential to the economic and strategic security of the United States." It was conducted by 40 geoscientists (many with industry backgrounds) and was reviewed stage-by-stage by geoscientists employed by many petroleum industry firms including several of the multinational majors.

www.eia.doe.gov...


The peak freaks will say anything to aid you in the belief that there are 'simply too many people' so you might get the stupid idea in your head that whoever is starving from hunger now will probably starve from lack of something else soon. These people belong in nazi Germany circa 1936 as the same type of Eugenics nonsense got a lot of air time back in those days.

Stellar



posted on Sep, 18 2007 @ 08:04 PM
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Originally posted by LDragonFire
It is starting to look like we have crossed the barrier into the world of Peak oil.


That depends entirely on how much CNN/BBC your watching...


To justify a 8x increase in the price of oil over the last 10 years, there has to be problems with the long term supply.


Why? Explain the relationship between supply and demand in a 'free market' where the creation of entirely artificial shortages is entirely legal?


The peak oil theory states, that there will be a decline in production over a few years before it can be proven.


Everyone one of the peak freaks has a different theory and a different time and they have been consistently wrong for near three decades now.


I disagree, I believe that with the worlds growing economies that its going to be the needed increases to such oil productions, that will prove peak oil is fact, when the production of oil will not meet demand.


How will you know that it is not just market manipulation of oil supply when it's a well proven fact that they are manipulating gasoline prices by strictly regulating the construction of new refineries? What objective set of rules will you apply to tell the difference?


This does not include effects of future wars or terrorism related to oil prices.


Sure it does not and those who like to think of themselves as your masters will do their best to bring about such terrorism and wars. They have already given us the presence of Israel and those numerous wars, the completely artificial Iran-Irag war that upset oil prices for near a decade, first gulf war ( where it was in my opinion the USAF that set fire to the Kuwaiti oil wells) to keep everyone in a blind panick, ten years of sanctions and bombing to ensure that the Iraqi's could not expand or rebuild their devastated infrastructure and then a additional invasion and occupation that is further destroying Iraqi infrastructure.

Beside that they have kept firm control of South American expansion trough the CIA installing dictators that tows the CIA line, terrorist and murderous civil wars to destroy production along the west coast of Africa and upheaval in eastern Europe by their sponsorship of the breakup of Yugoslavia into tiny fascist republics, the western sponsorship of the Chechen criminals and a few dozen other minor events i can probably document given the time or interest to do so. Despite all their criminal activities there is in fact still enough oil in on the market largely showing that we are physically swimming in the stuff and that they shear market manipulation might not be enough hence their current interest in telling us that oil will run out and that half of us will simply have to stop living...


It might be time to invest in a bike.


So you can get run by people in hummers that are better informed than you?
You made some good posts on many other subjects so i am surprised that you are being taken in by something as obvious as 'peak oil'...


Originally posted by LDragonFire
The thing is there is no justification for the increases in prices of oil. At this time there has been no real decrease in the production of oil, yet the prices just keep going up and up.


There has never been physically shortages in recent years but through their machinations they have kept the excess supplies relative low while doing their best to divert such excess into stockpiles ( the US strategic supply storage is FULL and their thinking of expanding it) thus causing artificially high trading volumes.


Then again the demand keeps going up but still not enough to justify the increases in prices we are seeing.


Never has been and even at 70 USD per barrel oil, adjusted for inflation, is still cheaper than it was back in 1981... How can we have a peak when oil was recently still trading for 30 USD?


I'm telling ya its a buyers market for bicycles


Thanks for confusing the issue.


Stellar



posted on Sep, 19 2007 @ 01:25 AM
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Thanks for the good posts remark StellarX, the feeling is mutual
. On this subject we are not in agreement. I do believe in Peak Oil, in the way that we have reached the end of Cheap oil.

This is a cool Interactive Oil Depletion Atlas Lists all countries on Earth


There are currently 98 oil producing countries in the world, of which 64 are thought to have passed their geologically imposed production peak, and of those 60 are in terminal production decline. A few countries such as Iran, Libya, Peru, and Russia are anomalous in that although they are thought to have passed their production peak, their output is growing at the moment. However they are not expected to regain their previously-established highs. Other post-peak producers may also grow their production temporarily within a long-term downward trend. According to analysis by Energyfiles.com, another 14 countries could peak within the next decade. The numbers given here are a snapshot, and Energyfiles' forecasts are continuously updated in the light of emerging data.


Another good source on Forecasting oil and gas production, consumption and activity

This is a older site asking Has global oil production peaked?

Pro peak oil

• Production has peaked for more than 50 oil-producing nations, including the US (1970) and Britain (1999). China, second to the US in the consumption of oil, was a net exporter of oil until five years ago.
• The Department of Energy predicts world demand will reach 119 million b.p.d. in 2025, with huge increases in China, India, and other developing nations.
• In 2002, the world used four times as much oil as was newly found.
• The rate of discovery of worldwide oil reserves, after declining for 40 years, has slowed to a trickle. In 2000, there were 16 large discoveries of oil, eight in 2001, three in 2002, and none last year, notes James Meyer, director of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in London.
• All the giant fields, such as those in the Middle East, have already been discovered, some experts say. These giants are relatively easy to find. The last major oil field, Cantarell, off Mexico's shore, was discovered in 1976.


Against peak oil

For example, with scientific advances, oil companies have boosted their drilling success, which means they don't need to drill as many wells. Last year, nearly 40 percent of exploration and wildcat projects located oil, gas, or gas condensate, according to IHS Energy.
Besides conventional oil, there are huge amounts in Canadian oil sands, Venezuelan heavy oils, and Rocky Mountain shale. If oil prices skyrocket, oil in deep offshore fields and in polar regions would become economically feasible to extract. And there's oil from natural gas, which experts see as lasting longer than conventional oil, outside North America.



This is a pdf link New GEO Peak Oil Report Provides Urgent Call to Action

This is just highlights of the report from March 2007.

[edit on 19-9-2007 by ElmerFudd]

[edit on 19-9-2007 by joedonbillybobbaker]



[edit on 19-9-2007 by LDragonFire]



posted on Sep, 19 2007 @ 01:41 AM
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As for the rising demand for oil China And India: A Rage For Oil from SEPTEMBER 5, 2005


American attention has lately been focused on China's emergence as a competitor for dwindling oil supplies -- witness the uproar over CNOOC Ltd.'s failed bid for California's Unocal Corp. But a different, yet equally intense, energy rivalry sure to have a dramatic effect on geopolitics has been playing out on the far side of the globe. Asia's other emerging powerhouse, India, is just as hungry for supplies as China. The two are battling each other in oil patches from Sudan to Siberia as they try to secure the resources to fuel their growing economies. So far, the Chinese have the upper hand in the competition.



The upper hand
Both of Asia's rising powers desperately need energy. China today imports roughly half its oil. Consumption rose by 15% last year and is forecast to jump by an additional 9% this year. By 2025, China will burn through 14.2 million barrels a day, double this year's level, the U.S. Energy Dept. predicts. India's oil imports are expected to rise to some 5 million barrels a day by 2020, from around 1.4 million barrels at present.


The demand for oil is rising faster now than at any other time in history. This will explain some of the recent increases in the price of oil, but not the 8x increase that has occurred, even if you add inflation it still doesn’t make since that oil has risen so sharply in the last ten years.





[edit on 19-9-2007 by LDragonFire]



posted on Sep, 19 2007 @ 05:48 PM
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Originally posted by LDragonFire
Thanks for the good posts remark StellarX, the feeling is mutual
. On this subject we are not in agreement. I do believe in Peak Oil, in the way that we have reached the end of Cheap oil.




The chairman concluded: "So far this year, the rise in the value of imported oil--essentially a tax on U.S. residents--has amounted to about three-quarters of one percent of gross domestic product. The effects were far larger in the crises of the 1970s. But, obviously, the risk of more serious negative consequences would intensify if oil prices were to move materially higher."

www.eia.doe.gov...


So howcome oil was still cheaper a year ago than it was in the 1970 crisis ( when there was no in the ground shortages) if there are now simply no more supplies?

Why do so many agencies still tell us that supply and discovery is still far oustripping demand?


At 2003 consumption levels [2], the remaining reserves represent 44.6 years of oil and 66.2 years of natural gas. Does this mean that the world will be out of fossil fuels in 50 years or so? That theory has been around since the 1970s. In fact, the figures for years of remaining reserves have remained relative constant over the past few decades as the industry has replaced consumption with newly discovered oil and gas deposits and has developed technologies to increase the amount of oil and gas that can be recovered from existing reservoirs.

No one can know for certain how much oil and gas remains to be discovered. But geologists sometimes make educated guesses. For example, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts periodic assessments of U.S. mineral resources. In its most recent assessment (1995), the USGS estimated that the onshore U.S., including Alaska, has undiscovered, technically recoverable resources of 112.3 billion barrels of oil and 1,074 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In a separate assessment of offshore resources completed in 2000, the U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) estimated that 75 billion barrels of oil and 362 trillion cubic feet of natural gas underlie the areas off the coasts of the U.S. The USGS and MMS resource assessments make clear that, despite being a very mature producing area, substantial resources still exist in the U.S.

World oil resources to 2025 may be more than two times current reserves, based on an estimate from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) using USGS data. Reserve growth of 730 billion barrels accounts for new discoveries and the expansion of what can be recovered from known reservoirs due to advances in technology and improvements in economics. But EIA estimates that in 2025, countries around the globe will still have more than 900 billion barrels of oil remaining to be discovered. EIA estimates total world oil resources at more than 2.9 trillion barrels of oil.

How much oil and natural gas i left?



"In 1947, proven oil reserves were 68 billion barrels. Between 1947 and 1968, 783 billion barrels were used —and proven reserves in 1998 stood at 1,000 billion (1 trillion) barrels.

"In 1966, world reserves of natural gas were 1 quadrillion cubic feet. Between 1966 and 1998, we used 2 quadrillion cubic feet — and reserves in 1998 stood at 5 quadrillion cubic feet.

"In 1949, world coal reserves were 256 billion short tons. Between 1949 and 1998, we used 168 billion short tons — and coal reserves stood at 1,000 billion (1 trillion) short tons."

www.oism.org...



WASHINGTON, DC, June 21 -- BP PLC tried recently to quell renewed concerns by some industry observers that world oil reserves are running out sooner than expected.

"2003 was a turbulent year in the world's energy markets, with supply disruptions, strong growth in both demand and production of oil and coal, and the highest prices in the oil and gas markets for 20 years," said BP Chief Economist Peter Davies.

However, he said, "The high prices were not driven by fundamental resource shortages: In 2003, the world's reserves of oil and natural gas continued their long term trend of growing faster than production."

BP: World oil and gas reserves still growing at healthy pace


So i think that makes it quit obvious that we have absolutely no reason to suspect supply problems within fifty years.


This is a cool Interactive Oil Depletion Atlas Lists all countries on Earth


Might be 'cool' by it's not exactly' evidence!



There are currently 98 oil producing countries in the world, of which 64 are thought to have passed their geologically imposed production peak, and of those 60 are in terminal production decline


Evidence, beside the 'though to have' ?



A few countries such as Iran, Libya, Peru, and Russia are anomalous in that although they are thought to have passed their production peak, their output is growing at the moment.


Maybe that should serve as a clue to the fact that there is no real in the ground problems?



However they are not expected to regain their previously-established highs.


Based on what evidence?



Other post-peak producers may also grow their production temporarily within a long-term downward trend.


So there is no evidence and if it contradicts the claim it must be a 'short term' thing?



According to analysis by Energyfiles.com, another 14 countries could peak within the next decade.


And according to other websites the alien invasion will be begin next week.. The peak claims have come and gone for decades now with never the remotest evidence presented as to why the last claims were in fact inaccurate.



The numbers given here are a snapshot, and Energyfiles' forecasts are continuously updated in the light of emerging data.

Another good source on Forecasting oil and gas production, consumption and activity


Thanks for nothing...


This is a older site asking Has global oil production peaked?



Pro peak oil

• Production has peaked for more than 50 oil-producing nations, including the US (1970) and Britain (1999). China, second to the US in the consumption of oil, was a net exporter of oil until five years ago.


Production peaks do not equal what can be produced and all of these countries could at current prices far exceed their so called 'peak' production.

China's oil production has expanded since 2004

www.eia.doe.gov...

www.uofaweb.ualberta.ca...

The US still has tonto.eia.doe.gov... around 22 million barrels in proven reserves ( always a very conservative estimate) and while it's proven reserves stood at around 40 million barrels in 1970 it's produced about 90 million barrels from them. So basically you have 40- 90 = - 50 million barrels but since the US now still officially has 22 million barrels 70 million barrels appeared from 'somewhere'? Can you explain why this is true for all countries and why i should thus believe this blatant peak oil nonsense?

Why can i show that the US has far more than that 22 million barrels worth of proven reserves to boot?



The Department of Energy predicts world demand will reach 119 million b.p.d. in 2025, with huge increases in China, India, and other developing nations.


That might very well be so unless the oil price are driven up by more propaganda and blatant market manipulation.



n 2002, the world used four times as much oil as was newly found.


As the earlier links shows this is just a bald faced lie. We are finding about 5 barrels for every 3 used and we are not really looking either.



• The rate of discovery of worldwide oil reserves, after declining for 40 years, has slowed to a trickle. In 2000, there were 16 large discoveries of oil, eight in 2001, three in 2002, and none last year, notes James Meyer, director of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in London.


More blatant lies that must go completely unchecked to be at all believable.

Continued



posted on Sep, 19 2007 @ 05:49 PM
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16 May 2007
Agence France Presse

"The one-billion-tonne (7.35-billion-barrel) reserve announced earlier is not the final figure. As our explorations deepen, we expect to discover more reserves."

Corroborating Jiang, Zhai Guangming, Jidong Oil field's first general manager, said that even half of Bohai Bay's resource has not been tapped.

Zhang Anping, spokesman of PetroChina, confirmed with AFP that more reserves are likely with further explorations and technological improvements.

www.uofaweb.ualberta.ca...



three years of exploration has enabled Pemex to map oilfields that the state-owned oil monopoly believes will more than double the nation's known crude oil reserves.

Luis Ramírez Corzo, Pemex's director for exploration, told EL UNIVERSAL that on a "conservative" estimate, almost 54 billion barrels lie underneath the oilfields. That would take Mexico's reserves to 102 billion barrels, more than the United Arab Emirates (which has reserves of 97.8 billion barrels), Kuwait (94 billion) and Iran (89.7 billion), and almost as much as Iraq (112.5 billion).

The official also said the discovery could enable Pemex to increase Mexico's oil production from the current level of 4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 7 million bpd.

www2.eluniversal.com.mx...




• All the giant fields, such as those in the Middle East, have already been discovered, some experts say. These giants are relatively easy to find. The last major oil field, Cantarell, off Mexico's shore, was discovered in 1976.


Mexico just found some more and many producers are revising their estimates upwards given that price are rising far, FAR in excess of extraction costs of even marginal reserves.



This is a pdf link New GEO Peak Oil Report Provides Urgent Call to Action

This is just highlights of the report from March 2007.


www.eia.doe.gov...

Shows that there just isn't any reason to worry about how much oil in the ground. If there are shortages they will be entirely artificial and i do not doubt that they will continue to do their best to create such.


Originally posted by LDragonFire
As for the rising demand for oil China And India: A Rage For Oil from SEPTEMBER 5, 2005


American attention has lately been focused on China's emergence as a competitor for dwindling oil supplies -- witness the uproar over CNOOC Ltd.'s failed bid for California's Unocal Corp.


That was a strictly a issue of national security....



But a different, yet equally intense, energy rivalry sure to have a dramatic effect on geopolitics has been playing out on the far side of the globe. Asia's other emerging powerhouse, India, is just as hungry for supplies as China.


Intense rivalry by what measure?



The two are battling each other in oil patches from Sudan to Siberia as they try to secure the resources to fuel their growing economies. So far, the Chinese have the upper hand in the competition.


What battle? Where do China have the upper hand?



The upper hand
Both of Asia's rising powers desperately need energy. China today imports roughly half its oil. Consumption rose by 15% last year and is forecast to jump by an additional 9% this year. By 2025, China will burn through 14.2 million barrels a day, double this year's level, the U.S. Energy Dept. predicts. India's oil imports are expected to rise to some 5 million barrels a day by 2020, from around 1.4 million barrels at present.


So basically India is not going to pose serious competition for China in world oil markets which will easily be able to meet this demand if left to function as they want to?


The demand for oil is rising faster now than at any other time in history. This will explain some of the recent increases in the price of oil, but not the 8x increase that has occurred, even if you add inflation it still doesn’t make since that oil has risen so sharply in the last ten years.


Well the oil in the ground can not decline by half in two or three years ( or by 1998 standards ten times ) and it did not as production and proven reserves estimates clearly proves.

There is no evidence for peak oil and there never was.

Stellar



posted on Sep, 19 2007 @ 06:26 PM
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Try this conspiracy theory...

Rising oil prices lead to less mobility in a general population (can't afford the gas to get around!)

Less mobile populations are much easier to control.

Oil -> energy -> life!

We need energy, so are forced to 'buy' it. The more expensive the energy, the more we are enslaved to our economic survival activities - less time and inclination for free thinking and anti-establishment activity.

Perhaps oil prices have little to do with availability of the black stuff and more to do with manipulation by NWO types, attempting to get us all travelling to work on bicycles



posted on Sep, 20 2007 @ 08:42 AM
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The chairman concluded: "So far this year, the rise in the value of imported oil--essentially a tax on U.S. residents--has amounted to about three-quarters of one percent of gross domestic product. The effects were far larger in the crises of the 1970s. But, obviously, the risk of more serious negative consequences would intensify if oil prices were to move materially higher.

www.eia.doe.gov...


Originally posted by StellarX:
So howcome oil was still cheaper a year ago than it was in the 1970 crisis ( when there was no in the ground shortages) if there are now simply no more supplies?
Why do so many agencies still tell us that supply and discovery is still far oustripping demand?


This also is a interesting report Living on the edge: OPEC spare capacity by Dave Cohen on September 19, 2007.:

On September 12th the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced that they would raise production 522,000 barrels per day (b/d) to alleviate demand-side pressures in the 4th quarter of this year.

But

What is remarkable about this latest spike in oil prices is not the usual knee-jerk reaction, but the fact that it comes on the heels of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' pledge to raise output to take some of the heat off prices.

Energy traders aren't buying it...

No, the skepticism has ... to do with production capacity or lack thereof. The guys on the Nymex trading floor are questioning whether OPEC has the ability to lift output by another 500,000 barrels a day, the number they agreed on at their meeting Tuesday in Vienna.



"In 1947, proven oil reserves were 68 billion barrels. Between 1947 and 1968, 783 billion barrels were used —and proven reserves in 1998 stood at 1,000 billion (1 trillion) barrels.

"In 1966, world reserves of natural gas were 1 quadrillion cubic feet. Between 1966 and 1998, we used 2 quadrillion cubic feet — and reserves in 1998 stood at 5 quadrillion cubic feet.

"In 1949, world coal reserves were 256 billion short tons. Between 1949 and 1998, we used 168 billion short tons — and coal reserves stood at 1,000 billion (1 trillion) short tons."

www.oism.org...


This article above: The Last Word
Posted Nov. 30, 2001
By Ralph de Toledano is out of date IMHO And I haven't mentioned Paul Ehrlich as far as I know.



WASHINGTON, DC, June 21 -- BP PLC tried recently to quell renewed concerns by some industry observers that world oil reserves are running out sooner than expected.

"2003 was a turbulent year in the world's energy markets, with supply disruptions, strong growth in both demand and production of oil and coal, and the highest prices in the oil and gas markets for 20 years," said BP Chief Economist Peter Davies.

However, he said, "The high prices were not driven by fundamental resource shortages: In 2003, the world's reserves of oil and natural gas continued their long term trend of growing faster than production."

BP: World oil and gas reserves still growing at healthy pace




So i think that makes it quit obvious that we have absolutely no reason to suspect supply problems within fifty years.

So the rising gas problems are a fairy tale, its just a figment of our collective imagination. And we went to war in Iraq for Democracy and Spreading Freedom. It may be obvious to you but I'm not living in 2001 or 2004.

This link here Energy supply : From Expansion to Contraction C.J.Campbell (Chairman, Association for the Study of Peak Oil) August 06, 2007 States:


Many people ask: Are we running out of oil? The simple answer is; Yes, we started doing that when we consumed the first gallon. But running out is not the main point when what matters much more is the onset of decline which now dawns as we enter the Second Half of the Age of Oil. Britain’s energy policy begins to attract much comment, mainly in connection with the threats of climate change, but the underlying issue of oil supply may deserve more urgent attention.

He also said this:

The OPEC countries for their part faced difficulties on how to share the burden of cutting production to support price. They decided to base their individual production quotas on what they reported as Reserves. In the mid 1980s, low oil prices were putting them under pressure, prompting Kuwait to break ranks in 1985 when it increased its reported reserves from 64 Gb (billion barrels)? a number consistent with the long prior trend ? to 90 Gb, although nothing particular had changed in the oilfields. Two years later, it announced a possibly valid small increase of 2 Gb. But it exhausted the patience of the other OPEC countries, which were forced to announce massive increases to protect their quotas. Abu Dhabi announced 92 Gb (up from 31 Gb) to exactly match Kuwait; Iran went one better at 93 Gb (up from 49 Gb), while Iraq capped both with a rounded 100 Gb (up from 47 Gb). Venezuela increased from 25 to 56 Gb by the inclusion of heavy oils not previously counted, and Saudi Arabia came in with a massive increase from 170 to 258 Gb in 1990, evidently not being able to match Kuwait because it was already reporting more. It is possible that Kuwait had started reporting the total discovered, not the amounts remaining. Its oil minister, Sheik Ali Jarrah Al-Sabbah, has however recently confessed to reserves of only 48 Gb, far below the reported number, no doubt having good political reasons for doing so in the new situation that unfolds as the Middle East countries no longer have spare capacity to control.


Do you Agree that oil is a Fossil Fuel? if so then


There are three major forms of fossil fuels: coal, oil and natural gas. All three were formed many hundreds of millions of years ago before the time of the dinosaurs - hence the name fossil fuels. The age they were formed is called the Carboniferous Period. It was part of the Paleozoic Era. "Carboniferous" gets its name from carbon, the basic element in coal and other fossil fuels.

Also from the same source

Fossil fuels take millions of years to make. We are using up the fuels that were made more than 300 million years ago before the time of the dinosaurs. Once they are gone they are gone.
So, it's best to not waste fossil fuels. They are not renewable; they can't really be made again. We can save fossil fuels by conserving energy.




Production peaks do not equal what can be produced and all of these countries could at current prices far exceed their so called 'peak' production.

Based on prices?? so as long as they equal the dollar amount that equals production in the past??...huh?












[edit on 20-9-2007 by LDragonFire]

[edit on 20-9-2007 by LDragonFire]



posted on Sep, 20 2007 @ 08:47 AM
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Its hard to post replies to your post because of the character count, and I have limited time on here for the next few days, I have more to say and to post but it will have too wait.....

As for counties that have produced more oil in the past, Just why are they not producing More or the Same amount Today When oil is at record high prices, Believe me if they Could they Would!!!

[edit on 20-9-2007 by joedonbillybobbaker]

[edit on 20-9-2007 by LDragonFire]



posted on Sep, 20 2007 @ 08:56 AM
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Originally posted by RogerT
Try this conspiracy theory...

Rising oil prices lead to less mobility in a general population (can't afford the gas to get around!)

Less mobile populations are much easier to control.

Oil -> energy -> life!

We need energy, so are forced to 'buy' it. The more expensive the energy, the more we are enslaved to our economic survival activities - less time and inclination for free thinking and anti-establishment activity.

Perhaps oil prices have little to do with availability of the black stuff and more to do with manipulation by NWO types, attempting to get us all travelling to work on bicycles




Nice post
interesting theory. I do however thing that oil is more limited than they are letting on, I believe thats why we invaded Afganistan and Iraq, and I don't think we are done yet.



posted on Sep, 22 2007 @ 05:25 PM
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Originally posted by LDragonFire

I do however thing that oil is more limited than they are letting on, I believe thats why we invaded Afganistan and Iraq, and I don't think we are done yet.


Perhaps the Iraq/Afghan invasions were more aimed at disrupting oil production and supply, rather than securing it. A further war with Iran would guarantee an oil crisis, with the Straits of Hormuz carrying 40% of current oil supply.

I don't believe for a second that the US gov/neocon elite is interested in empowering the US, and the big boys that are making money off oil have far more money than they could ever dream of needing in 1000 lifetimes, so the profit motive is a moot point imo. However, if you're bent is on power and control, nwo style, it all fits nicely


Just a thought




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