Some thoughts on the disappearance of Steve Fossett.
That Steve Fossett was a professional and not given to ‘fooling around’ in airplanes is a fairly well established fact.
World records are risky but very well prepared.
Steve took off around 9:30 in the morning after probably enjoying breakfast the Barron Hiltons Flying M ranch.
According to reports he carried no food but had plenty of water.
He wore no parachute but did not enjoy aerobatics so would not need one.
The flight was to look for possible dry lakes for a land world record attempt.
As previously stated he would not go north because he already knew about the Black Rock area. He would not have gone to the west because there are no
dry lakes to the west of the Flying M Ranch, only the Sierra Nevadas. He did not go south because he would have quickly run into the Sierra Nevadas
which run northwest/southeast.
He probably headed southeast to look at Luning, Mina, Coaldale, Silver Peak and Mud Lake. A flight ending up at Mud Lake (about 150 miles) would have
taken about an hour and a half. Then return to the Flying M about another hour and a half for a total of three hours. Although he had 5 hours of fuel
he probably only intended less than 3 hours because he took no food.
He didn’t file a flight plan because to do so would have required a telephone call to Reno FSS or a call in flight and the route of flight would not
have been known exactly because he was looking for any area for his record land run. Therefore the flight plan would have been filed ‘out and
return’, 3 hours planned, 5 hours fuel. No sense in filing that because the people on the ground at the Flying M would know he hadn’t returned in
5 hours. No point in filing.
After takeoff he would have headed southeast towards Luning, Mina, Coaldale. The only mountains of any consequence (other than the Wasuk Range
directoy to the east of the Flying M) would have been between Coaldale and Mud lake but nothing over 7000 feet. High but no big deal.
The only water along the way would have been Walker Lake. The opinions of my esteemed fellow poster Tom Bedlam notwithstanding it is extremely
unlikely that Steve flew over and then crashed into the lake.
First of all, reasonably careful pilots do not fly a single engine airplane over water at a height less than the height from which, in case of total
engine failure would enable a glide to the shore. Second there is no reason to fly over water.
In the unlikely event that Steve did fly over water, and the water was Walker Lake, there would have been plenty of people that would have noticed it.
People are very observant and people are always looking. Highway 95 is well traveled and there is very, very unlikely that you could crash into Walker
Lake and not be noticed by people in cars along the highway or people along the shore. Possible of course, but very, very unlikely.
Someone on this thread mentioned the possibility that Steve would be found within 5 miles of the Flying M Ranch his departure point. I find this
suggestion very likely. Maybe in the mountains just to the east of the ranch. He may have taken off and noticed the cut through the Wasssuk range just
to the left of Pike Peak and then following the Cottonwood Creek that drains into Walker Lake.
The trouble with that theory is that no ELT was heard. There is no damage severe enough that could have disabled a properly functioning ELT.
That Steve himself was very seriously or fatally injured is not in doubt. He had a watch with an ELT that had he been physically able he would have
activated.
But the lack of an ELT signal is the one thing that does not make any sense, however consider the following information from the NOAA Satellite and
Information service.
Different types of ELTs are currently in use. There are approximately 170,000 of the older generation 121.5 MHz ELTs in service. Unfortunately,
these have proven to be highly ineffective. They have a 97% false alarm rate, activate properly in only 12% of crashes, and provide no identification
data. In order to fix this problem 406 MHz ELTs were developed to work specifically with the Cospas-Sarsat system. These ELTs dramatically reduce the
false alert impact on SAR resources, have a higher accident survivability success rate, and decrease the time required to reach accident victims by an
average of 6 hours.
Presently, most aircraft operators are mandated to carry an ELT and have the option to choose between either a 121.5 MHz ELT or a 406 MHz ELT. The
Federal Aviation Administration has studied the issue of mandating carriage of 406 MHz ELTs. The study indicates that 134 extra lives and millions of
dollars in SAR resources could be saved per year. The only problem is that 406 MHz ELTs currently cost about $1,500 and 121.5 MHz ELTs cost around
$500. It's easy to see one reason for the cost differential when you look at the numbers. However, no one can argue the importance of 406 MHz ELTs
and the significant advantages they hold.
www.sarsat.noaa.gov...
Since the airplane belongs to the Flying M Ranch and since Barron Hilton runs the Flying M Ranch I would assume that the Decathalon had a 406.
I find the suggestions that Steve flew over or violated a restricted airspace and/or was captured or detained ridiculous in the extreme. First he
could never have gotten close enough without a friendly warning. In the unlikely event that he did violate some airspace he would have been radioed to
call upon landing. If in the extremely unlikely event that he would have been forced down he would have been debriefed and sent on his way.
To continue any further speculation I need to know for certain if Steve’s airplane had a 406 ELT or not. Any help and/or comments would be greatly
appreciated
Relief off my mind.
