Plane Carrying Aviation Adventurer Steve Fossett Missing

Originally posted by johnlear

Probably NUWC got him, probably accidentally. You know how those things happen......unbelievably at the wrong time and wrong place. Some admiral is getting his butt chewed big time, right about now.

He's in a lake, most likely. And as the VGL doesn't leave marks, even when they find him it will be 'pilot disorientation' or 'pilot error'. Heck, it's a prop plane, if he was flying west at sundown there's always 'flicker vertigo' to bring in as an explanation.

Oh and Tom sorry about calling you a disinformation agent. Not that you aren't...just sorry about calling you one.

So nu? And you worked for Disney yourself? You're wrong, though, I'm a co-owner of a design firm that does government contract work. I never did CA.

Originally posted by Tom Bedlam

He's in a lake, most likely. And as the VGL doesn't leave marks, even when they find him it will be 'pilot disorientation' or 'pilot error'.

OK OK already so he's in the lake. Walker Lake.

Heck, it's a prop plane, if he was flying west at sundown there's always 'flicker vertigo' to bring in as an explanation.

Uh huh. He took of at 9:30 with 5 hours of fuel so he ran out at 2:30. So he got flicker vertigo flying at a 45 degree angle up? With 2 bullets in the back of his head? Nice work Tom.

Originally posted by johnlear
Uh huh. He took of at 9:30 with 5 hours of fuel so he ran out at 2:30. So he got flicker vertigo flying at a 45 degree angle up? With 2 bullets in the back of his head? Nice work Tom.

The up-angle helps the blood drain.

Ok, ok, so he was looking at the planet Venus through the propeller. There, you made me spill the beans.

Then, too, a VGL is unforgettable, but they work best either in the dark or if the pilot's on takeoff or approach. So it's probably not that either.

would you believe he ate the fish?

What is the fallout going to be when questions are asked about the
six unknown plane crashes found in the search?

That is if the fellow members report is true.

Well they can say the search was a success, six successes.

That's ok wenfieldsecret. I know what they are Really Fast BLACK Helicopters! Haven't seen 'em around for quite sometime and was just wondering.... what all of a sudden brings them to my neck of the cacti? I've got Area 51 to the north of me and there's Nellis Airforce Base. Checked some photo's out on the net.... the large plane I seen wasn't a B-52 it was a C-130. Just got a little nervous, after reading that (hopefully it was) a rumor.
This military activity probably has nothing to do with Mr.Fossit. I don't think they extended the search this far south, but who know's maybe they did. If he's being held for some reason then atleast he's alive right?

The flurry of activity on this thread tonight relating to Steve's flight path, VGL, JFK Jr., bullets in the back of the head, Venus, and all makes me think that loam and rumormill may be on to something.

Was Steve flying a modified Red Herring?

Do we have a Broken Arrow out there somewhere?

Should I find a nice deep hole nearby and be ready to hide in it?

reply to post by MountainStar


Those are Blackhawks with refueling probes, Not much to worry about since it is the main chopper in use today. They can push 160mph so yeah they can boogie.

Thanks for the info Skywatcher. Stupid me, didn't know a probe from a gun. Relief off my mind.

I heard about those other plane crashes found, in the search too Teslaandlyne. Ed Dames time is running out. He's suppose to give the location soon. Better tell Noory on Monday. 10 bucks say's he dodges it.

I am beginning to think this is a hoax on Fossett's part. It seems as if he just vanished.

reply to post by MountainStar


No problem.. That was a good picture. I get them flying over my house moveing between MacDill and im guessing Tindal AFB.

Originally posted by Icarus Rising
Was Steve flying a modified Red Herring?

Succinctly put in my very humble opinion... On the prosaic side, I still hold to the belief that Mr Fossett's craft went down due to severe atmospheric conditions, mechanical failure/damage or a him experiencing a sudden medical problem, rather than simple pilot error. On the conspiracy side, I tend towards this version, with Mr Fossett's "disappearance" being used as an excuse to bring in whatever is needed to locate something else. Yes, the other options (shot down/captured due to entering restricted airspace) are also reasonable but in that case it would be pretty easy to "relocate" the plane/wreckage quite quickly then have it "found". Doesn't need such a time span as we are now into.

In *any* case, I still very stubbornly feel that the aircraft could be located near Luning.

I don't know grover? Things have a tendency to just vanish out here. If it's a publicity stunt I would think Mr. Fossett would lose a lot of fans. It's not funny. Someone asked about the birds we have here. The only really big fellow is the Golden Eagle certain times of the year. I suppose a California condor could fly over these parts, but I've never seen one. We get birds from all over tho. 00p's, forgot to mention the vultures and ravens. If he's down... you'd think you would see some of them circling around. Unless he's in water, like some think.

Some thoughts on the disappearance of Steve Fossett.


That Steve Fossett was a professional and not given to ‘fooling around’ in airplanes is a fairly well established fact.

World records are risky but very well prepared.

Steve took off around 9:30 in the morning after probably enjoying breakfast the Barron Hiltons Flying M ranch.

According to reports he carried no food but had plenty of water.

He wore no parachute but did not enjoy aerobatics so would not need one.

The flight was to look for possible dry lakes for a land world record attempt.

As previously stated he would not go north because he already knew about the Black Rock area. He would not have gone to the west because there are no dry lakes to the west of the Flying M Ranch, only the Sierra Nevadas. He did not go south because he would have quickly run into the Sierra Nevadas which run northwest/southeast.

He probably headed southeast to look at Luning, Mina, Coaldale, Silver Peak and Mud Lake. A flight ending up at Mud Lake (about 150 miles) would have taken about an hour and a half. Then return to the Flying M about another hour and a half for a total of three hours. Although he had 5 hours of fuel he probably only intended less than 3 hours because he took no food.

He didn’t file a flight plan because to do so would have required a telephone call to Reno FSS or a call in flight and the route of flight would not have been known exactly because he was looking for any area for his record land run. Therefore the flight plan would have been filed ‘out and return’, 3 hours planned, 5 hours fuel. No sense in filing that because the people on the ground at the Flying M would know he hadn’t returned in 5 hours. No point in filing.

After takeoff he would have headed southeast towards Luning, Mina, Coaldale. The only mountains of any consequence (other than the Wasuk Range directoy to the east of the Flying M) would have been between Coaldale and Mud lake but nothing over 7000 feet. High but no big deal.

The only water along the way would have been Walker Lake. The opinions of my esteemed fellow poster Tom Bedlam notwithstanding it is extremely unlikely that Steve flew over and then crashed into the lake.

First of all, reasonably careful pilots do not fly a single engine airplane over water at a height less than the height from which, in case of total engine failure would enable a glide to the shore. Second there is no reason to fly over water.

In the unlikely event that Steve did fly over water, and the water was Walker Lake, there would have been plenty of people that would have noticed it. People are very observant and people are always looking. Highway 95 is well traveled and there is very, very unlikely that you could crash into Walker Lake and not be noticed by people in cars along the highway or people along the shore. Possible of course, but very, very unlikely.

Someone on this thread mentioned the possibility that Steve would be found within 5 miles of the Flying M Ranch his departure point. I find this suggestion very likely. Maybe in the mountains just to the east of the ranch. He may have taken off and noticed the cut through the Wasssuk range just to the left of Pike Peak and then following the Cottonwood Creek that drains into Walker Lake.

The trouble with that theory is that no ELT was heard. There is no damage severe enough that could have disabled a properly functioning ELT.

That Steve himself was very seriously or fatally injured is not in doubt. He had a watch with an ELT that had he been physically able he would have activated.

But the lack of an ELT signal is the one thing that does not make any sense, however consider the following information from the NOAA Satellite and Information service.

Different types of ELTs are currently in use. There are approximately 170,000 of the older generation 121.5 MHz ELTs in service. Unfortunately, these have proven to be highly ineffective. They have a 97% false alarm rate, activate properly in only 12% of crashes, and provide no identification data. In order to fix this problem 406 MHz ELTs were developed to work specifically with the Cospas-Sarsat system. These ELTs dramatically reduce the false alert impact on SAR resources, have a higher accident survivability success rate, and decrease the time required to reach accident victims by an average of 6 hours.

Presently, most aircraft operators are mandated to carry an ELT and have the option to choose between either a 121.5 MHz ELT or a 406 MHz ELT. The Federal Aviation Administration has studied the issue of mandating carriage of 406 MHz ELTs. The study indicates that 134 extra lives and millions of dollars in SAR resources could be saved per year. The only problem is that 406 MHz ELTs currently cost about $1,500 and 121.5 MHz ELTs cost around $500. It's easy to see one reason for the cost differential when you look at the numbers. However, no one can argue the importance of 406 MHz ELTs and the significant advantages they hold.

www.sarsat.noaa.gov...

Since the airplane belongs to the Flying M Ranch and since Barron Hilton runs the Flying M Ranch I would assume that the Decathalon had a 406.

I find the suggestions that Steve flew over or violated a restricted airspace and/or was captured or detained ridiculous in the extreme. First he could never have gotten close enough without a friendly warning. In the unlikely event that he did violate some airspace he would have been radioed to call upon landing. If in the extremely unlikely event that he would have been forced down he would have been debriefed and sent on his way.

To continue any further speculation I need to know for certain if Steve’s airplane had a 406 ELT or not. Any help and/or comments would be greatly appreciated

Originally posted by loam
I just ran across this webpage raising a very interesting question:

TO ME THIS IS PRETTY MUCH PROOF THAT THE OFFICIAL STORY IS A LIE

Has anyone looked into this?

Thanks for the link loam

This is certainly something to think about.

although I hope it isnt true, I think there is more to this story than meets the eye, I really do hope Steve Fosset is found safe and well, but its getting increasingly unlikely

Two sources indicate he has the older generation 121.5 MHz ELTs.

need for new beacons

The small plane piloted by Fossett, 63, was equipped with an older emergency beacon that is notorious for failing to operate after crashes, according to federal safety officials and the agencies that monitor the emergency beacons.

Second Source

Mr. Fossett's aircraft was equipped with a 121.5 megahertz ELT that should automatically activate upon impact with the ground, but can manually be activated as well.

I would like to see a good map of the areas they have/are actually searching.




[edit on 9/9/07 by makeitso]

And what about radar? Why wouldnt radar have tracked his plane?

Originally posted by WASTYT

And what about radar? Why wouldnt radar have tracked his plane?

We have 2 possibilities of radar, primary and secondary. Primary radar is one that gets a return from the fuselage itself. Secondary radar receives the signal from an oerating transponder abord the airplane.

Altough Steve would have been squawking 1200 (for VFR flight) on the aircrafts transponder its not likely that at the altitude and area he was operating that the beacon would have been slowing on secondary radar.

If he was not picked up by secondary radar he wouldn't have been picked up on the primary scan of that radar.

With the surveillance techniques available to the government which includes satellite monitoring it is unlikely that someone somewhere in the government doesn't know exactly where Steves airplane is but its unlikely that they would divulge such information the risk of which would compromise how closely we all are watched whatever we are doing.

What about the Fossett missing as a cover story for something more sinister, John? Do you give that any credence at all?

Could the government or the military have said, "We need to have Someone Famous go missing in this area to cover our search for something we really don't want the public to know about?"

Or would they just carry on a search of that nature in total secrecy without the need for a cover story?

This is a map of the area around the Flying M Ranch (left). The Wassak Range extends north and south a few miles to the east (blue line). Steve would have had to cross that range to get to Lunig, Mina and Coaldale. The range averages between 9,000 and 11,000 feet in elevation. Mt. Grant is 11, 239 feet in elevation.

Steve would have probably tried to go through Lucky Boy Pass, the yellow path to the south.

The yellow path to the north is Cottonwood Creek Pass.

All of my flights in and out of the Flying M Ranch were in high performance business jet aircraft. But I know that in light airplanes, such as the Decathalon, if any wind was blowing at all it would have been a demanding flight and the reason is that coupled with the heat of summer and the winds, strong up and down drafts would have been encountered.

The Decathalon is a fine aircraft but was not built to fly in this type of mountainess environment. The treacherous winds may have exceeded both the capabilities of the pilot and the aircraft.

Remember that he had to negotiate this range twice, once going southeast and once coming back.

Originally posted by makeitso
Anybody see this yet? Is it for real, or some scam?

Last I heard it was going to be a few days before DigitalGlobe could get Google the images.

I messed with it for a bit. Using Google Earth found one downed plane at 38.562304, -119.326990 and sent it in.

Was way too obvious, I'm sure someone has seen that one already. Going to check for a bit longer, kind of fun...

You would think a computer looking for pixel patterns and colors in these images could scan all this area in a couple hours at most.

TheMesh