To believe that 1200 sortees will resolve the situation, several (but not all) of the following assumptions are necessary:
Either:
1. That the Iranians are cowards and will defect from the military en masse or even coup after just a few units have suffered 10-30% casualties.
or:
2. That some of the strikes will be nuclear, and will completely obliterate major hubs of transportation and communication, as well as the Iranian
government.
And in addition to one of those:
3. That the Chinese and Russians have tacitly agreed because they want to spike the price of oil and natural gas, or that it has been agreed that
there will be an invasion to secure Iran's energy resources and keep them flowing to China.
and:
4. That the US will either prepare for a ground engagement in advance of the strikes, be prepared to use nuclear weapons to prevent one, or for some
nefarious purpose desires to prompt an Iranian attack on Iraq which will likely result in over 1,000 US casualties.
Remember, at the beginning of Desert Storm we flew over 1,000 sortees daily, and that did not utterly destroy Iraq's military. Yes, the Iraqis began
retreating or surrendering, but not to airpower alone. The airpower was only a foreshadowing of what would happen if they stayed put to duke it out
with a force of half a million.
1,200 conventional sortees that do not fit into a massive combined arms operation will not crush Iran.
My guess is that with Bush at the helm it would just be a Texas-sized version of what Israel did to Osirak. The problem of course is that the problem
addressed by Osirak was a lot simpler: Israel and Iraq don't share a border and Israel wasn't trying to stop an insurgency.
There'd be a day or so spent on taking out air defenses and missiles that Iran could respond with, then they'd target the nuclear facilities, a few
clerics, intelligence facilities, and the Revolutionary Guard.
Bush would then declare victory, claiming that he'd finally done something right and had halted the Iranian nuclear program without an invasion and
that he'd even brought France on board for it. He would completely ignore the fact that he'd failed to put a dent in the insurgency.
Bush may be under the illusion that he will be remembered somewhat like LBJ- who in some circles gets a pass on Vietnam because he inherited the
problem at a much lower level from a predecessor, and because he had other things going.
Perhaps he believes that Republicans will remember him fondly for the War on Terror, changing the balance of the SCOTUS, and strengthening the
executive branch, and that Bill Clinton will become the Kennedy who bequeathed Iraq to him and Hillary Clinton will become the Nixon who, if poisoned
by a few scandals, will make him look good in some ways and share an equal portion of the blame for Iraq.
Of course that will never happen- the breakdowns in the analogy are damning- if Bush is anyone he's Nixon, without the trip to China- but the man
does not have a sound grip on reality and he may not see it that way.



