Sorry John, that was a computer hick up on my PC and my clicking went to the thread and not to what I was attempting to fix.
About a year and a half ago, I posted this thread:.
www.abovetopsecret.com...
The thread included a powerpoint by the Atlantic Monthly think tank on Iran Scenarios. Pretty interesting read if you have time, some major players
were involved.
Anyways, 1200 targets in 3 days is more then doable. The article and info in the above threads indicated that when the Isreali move into Lebanon last
summer was going to hell, the Pentagon was drawing up plans to hit 10,000 targets across the Mid East in an hour if Syria and Iran started getting
involved. An hour, 10000 within an hour. It sounds impossible, but when you add up deployable T-LAM's, JDAMs, and ALCMs, not to mention Army systems
like MLRS/TACMS it could be done, if all the delivery systems were in place. The organized Iranian Armed Forces along with its nuclear program would
be obliterated.
Doable, achievable, and overwhelmingly successful. And then many of you have asked "then what???". Good question.
I don't think we will invade Iran, we can pull off the above with little or no US/Allied casualties, and actually since most of the sites hit would
be away from population centers, civillian casualties in Iran could be kept relatively low as well. I could forsee possibly three ground actions that
might accompany this action.
1. Actions on and possibly across the border of Iran/Iraq, in order to prevent arms and Iranian special ops/light infantry from coming into Iraq and
playing havoc inside the country. Not to mention the training and supply of the insurgents in Iraq is in large part why things in Iraq are so sour.
This is a whole other topic I am sure we could debate, but I'll move on
.
2. An accompying move into SW Iran where Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait converge. This would help protect the Allied supply lines back to Kuwait/Saudi Arabia
and (just for all you "its just about oil types") we could sieze and secure the port and the oil fields and facilaties in the area. This helps
prevent Iran from turning off the oil tap and screwing the entire Western Economy.
3. Someone mentioned sending the Marines to secure the litoral areas of the Straights of Hormuz to prevent it's closure. This would also help to keep
the oil running, and prevent naval retaliations in the gulf. The positions held would be covered by air power if any of these ground ops were
attempted, and since the missioin would be to hold key strategic areas there would be little of no "nation building" involved like in Iraq.
3 limited ground ops, but none occupying Iran proper, so it avoids most of the problems in Iraq, because there would be no (or very limited) use of
ground troops in the same role as in Iraq. Essentially an Air Campaign only.
This takes care of any Iranian Nuclear threat, (real, perceived, capable or otherwise). Most rational people in both the US, Europe, and Isreal see
that this will be a necessary event at some point. In fact a previous poster mentioned that it isn't just a "Bush thing", that most of those
running for US president have stated, on or off the record, they would attack Iran if necessary. The new German and French leaders have expressed
similar positions. For good reason, their countries are in range of Iranian missiles, and those countries are experiencing their own problems with
radical islam.
THE CONSEQUENCES:
And of course there would be. Most have been mentioned on the thread already. A quick recap.
a. Major offensives by the Taliban, Al Quedia, and insurgent forces in Iraq and Afgahnistan.
b. Probably revolts in the "moderate" Muslim states. Pakistan, Saudi, Egypt, the Gulf States, and Syria all likely to expereince problems at the
very least. ove throw (or flat out siding with Iran) at the extreme.
c. Probable activation of Iranian Revolutionary Guards cells in Western Europe and the US, most likely going after soft and civillian targets,
casualties will likely be high. Not to mention plenty of Al Quieda types as well.
d. Hamas and Hezbollah will have a field day in Isreal to say the least. So Isreal likely gets pulled into this one way or another.
e. There is no telling what China and Russia might do, as several have expressed. I don't think they would jump in militarily (initiating a full on
WWIII, oh heck even a US/Europe vs Islam would already be WWIII which is where this almost certainly leads). However; China could threaten Tiawan.
They could also dump US Treasury reserves. The Russians could move troops West towards NATO in a threatening manner, cut off gas supplies to Europe
and they could jack up their nuclear forces to high state of alert.
So the consequences of an Iran attack (no matter how succsesful) could bring on a downpour of dangerous and costly reactions.
The problem is: are those consequences any better or worse then Iran having the bomb??? That's the question. Because if Iran sells it, or uses it,
(which they have indicated they would) they push Isreal into attacking. And then the same sets of consequences listed above unfold anyways. Puts the
world in a real "damned if we do, damned if we don't" situation, and one that I don't see diplomacy solving either.
Which leads too something else I want to add personally. This scenario essentially results in the (depending on your particular interpritation of)
prophecied war of Ezekiel 38 and 39 which is the beginning of the end of this current age, according to Judeah Christian eschotology (and incidently
the muslims would see as the events of their 12th Imam).
Note this is an observation; I am not directly "pushing" a belief as many will undoubtly suggest. Nor do I beleive there is anything at this point
that will slow down, speed up, or usher in these events. My belief, and I know it's not popular, is these events were prophecied and WILL occur.
HOWEVER; even if you don't subscribe to these beliefs, I think we all can admit this whole Iran thing has the world in a pickle, with no good
options. Even putting all the various relgious aspects the play into this to the side, this situation is bad, and I personally have yet to formulate
an opinion on what any course of action is best. But because of my beliefs, I just don't see one. We are in for a rocky ride soon I fear, one way
or the other.
