Asteriod to Strike Earth

Hi im new here, well ive been reading ATS and finding it fascinating for around 5 months now. Not much of a poster on these types of forums but felt compelled to post this up.

I was watching the news tonight which showed a report on an asteroid heading for earth. Now i cant find anything on the web yet but im sure it'll pop up soon.

It is said it will pass earth in the 2030's (sorry cant remember the precise date, but it was 2030 something), it will past earth 36,000km away from it, which is closer than some satellites we use. Now many scientists/nasa are worried, and its a big possibility that the earths gravity could pull it in.

When/if it hits, it will unleash energy/force 1000 times the hiroshima nuclear bomb.

Proposals on how to stop this have included missiles and even suggestions that what you see happen in the film Armageddon could be a possible solution (landing on it, drilling big hole, planting bom, RUN< DETONATE).

Now i know this isnt loads of info, but i couldnt dig up much on the net. But it certainly is interesting.

If this has been discussed, or ive done something wrong im sorry. Im new, so please dont flame

Your thoughts on this

That would be 1997 XF11.

Here is NASA'a page on it.
neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

On October 26, 2028, the near-Earth asteroid 1997 XF11 will make a close approach to Earth. Although initial reports indicated an extremely close passage, the current analyses predict an approach distance of 0.00636 AU (951,000 km, 591,000 mi) or about 2.5 times farther than the moon. The probability that the asteroid will impact the Earth is effectively zero. (See JPL's press release.)

1997 XF11, an Apollo type asteroid, was discovered by Jim Scotti of the Spacewatch group at the University of Arizona's Lunar and Planetary Laboratory. The asteroid's orbit was derived from about 100 observations taken since that time as well as 4 pre-discovery observations taken in 1990 by Eleanor Helin, Ken Lawrence, and Brian Roman as a part of the Palomar Planet Crossing Asteroid Survey.

Key points:

* probability of Earth impact is zero with and without the 1990 pre-discovery observations
* effect of the 1990 pre-discovery observations moved the 2028 close-approach distance farther away and reduced the approach distance uncertainties
* the same uncertainty analysis used here for 1997 XF11 was used for the Galileo spacecraft flybys of asteroids 951 Gaspra and 243 Ida --- at encounter, both asteroids were found to lie well within their error ellipsoids.

Only 1000 times more powerful? We've detonated weapons over 4000 times as powerful as that primitive piece of WW2 junk.

I wonder how it would look from Earth as it passed by, I can imagine that it would be pretty cool

At least I will still be around to see it

No offence to you oldies

reply to post by OzWeatherman


Yeah we can see it and it will look pretty cool.
I watched an episode of "The Universe" and they talked about it.

The Universe : The End of the Earth: Deep Space Threats to Our Planet Airs on Sunday September 02 07:00 PM

Asteroids, comets, gamma ray bursts and the sun all combine to make the Earth a dangerous place to live. NASA's top brass and other scientists are arming themselves with the latest technology to pre-empt an apocalyptic attack. Watch and investigate bizarre, and terrifying apocalyptic scenarios and the ways that scientists are racing against the clock to develop technology to defend our planet.
www.history.com...

Try to watch this episode if you can. They describe what it will look like.

Ill be about 50 when this comes by, so if it does hit I wont be to concerned.


Im hoping that by that time we still have the resources to deal with a closer than expected encounter.


Will NASA be sending up any people to observe it? I would much rather be under the impact on earth than watching it impact from space. Would the astronuats be stuck in space if this were to happen?



Can the resident experts give their opinions on how truthfull NASA and the government would be if it is expected to hit earth. If they knew this would they tell us???

Actually I think he's talking about Apophis. It will come near in 2029 and if it passes through a certain region it could come around again and hit in 2036 or 2037. However, it's not large enough to wipe out life, but it would seriously mess up a rather large area, and if it hits it will most likely hit near the equator.

He is correct^^ Apophis is the one they were talking about. Certainly it will look cool when it passes close buy, we will be able to see it. But what wont be cool if for some reason it gets bigger when your watching it, and bigger and then BAM.

If it hits, wherever it hits its going to cause serious problems. People will most certainly be killed, food/crops sources will be depleting/depleted in the area. Buildings such as hopspitals, fire stations etc.. could/will be destroyed.

If it hits a third world region, it will be even worse.

What do you think we could do to stop it (if it becomes a bigger threat). Ive heard suggestions of missiles and even landing on it and blowing it up. But who knows. What do you think we could do to try and stop it?

[edit on 1-9-2007 by Proto]

I'm not 100% certain but I think the asteroid in 2029 has little chance of hitting Earth, it'll just be a close passing. I don't think NASA is worrying about this asteroid- more likely of an still 'unknown' one.

The problem is they don't know what effect Earth gravity will have on its course after it passes by Earth. It can go further away or make a bee-line to hit us. But I read somewhere that the best way to divert a asteroid hit is to fly a spacecraft near it affecting gravity that given time world alter it trajectory. You just need to locate all the big asteroids in our solar system and keep track of them.....

Ok its off topic a little but i just been reminded of a little game on another site. its a bit of a messed up site called the "Kill everyone project" but they have some cool games on there. This game allows you to try and judge the velocity and gravity affect of said asteroids. Have a play

homokaasu.org...

I read this last night, it is Britain that has to monitor this asteroid. They are sending out a satellite to rendevous with this asteroid. They want to reach it
by 2014, study and and send back the info. If this asteroid is on the collision
course with earth, they can probably deflect it.
They said we have nothing to worry about, but I say what if? what if this
asteroid is heading towards Earth, and it is too big to deflect or re-navigate.
I say we start trying to find a solution to problems like this.

Yep thats true also, britain has been given the task to build a satellite to go check it out.

What if: Yes what if, theres still a chance it could hit earth, who knows what the earths gravity could do to it, maybe even the moons gravity could affect it a little. Will be very interesting when the satellite gets some more info on it.

So whats everyone elses thoughts of Apophis. Anyone feel scared or worried about this. Anyone able to dig up any more info on it?

I've heard about plans to send something up to have a look at these near Earth passes, but are there any plans to plonk something actually on the asteroid its self? You to get a free ride round the solar system - and either return to earth on the next pass or just do a download and go off for another trip.

Its making a near pass in 2028 but if it passes the gravity could send it off in a patern that it could come back and strike in the 2030's.

The UK are building satellite to take a look at it, hoping to reach it in 2014. but not to actually do anything to it. There is suggestions/plans of latching onto it, or similar methods seen in Armageddon (the film). Missiles have also been suggested.

But maybe this could be NASA's response to the threat it poses.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

No one is much worried about Apophis. The first pass will have 0 chance of a hit, and in passing, the 2036 trajectory will be plotted exactly. Current plans include a small craft to "nose" into it, and nudge it just slightly. Done years in advance of it's next pass, only a slight effect is needed to make a huge change in it's orbit. It's the ones we don't know about yet that are worrisome.

Welcome to ATS, Proto!

I can tell you a story. About 10 years ago (I think it was around that time), I was watching a national news program. They made a breaking news "break-in" to their normally scheduled reporting. They announced that an asteroid about 10 - 13 miles wide (which they are know saying is only 1 mile wide... sureeeeeeeee) will hit the Earth on October 26, 2028. About 10 minutes later, in almost an act of scared desperation, they recalled their statements with confused looks upon their faces, as if some government agents were looking at them from behind the camera. They said to their audience that they had made a mistake and had been given wrong information, and didn't want to cause a panic.

What kind of information could be so important that the network made them recall their statement in only 10 minutes? Sounds to me like someone from the government got to the network. I don't remember which network it was. But I sure as heck remember the whole incident happening and I couldn't believe what I was seeing. This was long before I was into "conspiracy theory" so it shamed me to know that this type of thing could happen.

It was never mentioned again. To this day, I have not heard of an asteroid or comet with that timetable of impact slated to hit the earth. But I remember the date, clear as day. October 26, 2028. If there is some secret projects going on that the government doesn't want you to know about, this might be why. Just as a safety precaution for all you good folk, I would mark your calendar with that day. If nothing happens, super. But if it does, at least you now have warning.

October 26, 2028 10 - 13 mile wide asteroid to impact the Earth,
which they are now reporting it as a 1 mile wide asteroid.

Best wishes, and keep your family safe and alert.

PRESS INFORMATION SHEET:
ONE-MILE-WIDE ASTEROID TO PASS CLOSE TO THE EARTH IN 2028
Produced at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA), Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S.A.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Recent orbit computations on an asteroid discovered last December indicated that it was virtually certain that it would pass within the moon's distance of the earth a little more than 30 years from now. Refined computations, based on prediscovery images from 1990, show that the miss distance is now a rather comfortable 600 thousand miles.

The asteroid, known as 1997 XF11, was discovered by Jim Scotti in the course of the Spacewatch program at the University of Arizona. This program utilizes modern electronic technology on a 36-inch telescope at Kitt Peak that was built 77 years ago.

After the discovery observations on December 6, observations made by two Japanese amateur astronomers during the following two weeks showed that the minimum distance between the orbits of 1997 XF11 and the earth was very small. Given also that the object was quite large as earth-approaching asteroids go, perhaps one mile across, it was added to the list of "potentially hazardous asteroids" (PHAs) that need to be monitored, lest they are destined to come dangerously close to the earth over the course of the next several centuries. There are currently 108 PHAs.

As astronomers continued to gather data on 1997 XF11, it slowly began to become apparent that there would be a particularly close approach to the earth in October 2028. A computation from observations spanning 60 days suggested that the miss distance would be 500 thousand miles. This distance may seem large in human terms, but it was less than had previously been predicted in advance for any other known asteroid during the foreseeable future.

Observations made on March 3 and 4 by Peter Shelus with a 30-inch telescope at the McDonald Observatory in western Texas extended the observed arc of 1997 XF11 to 88 days. This time, the orbit computation indicated a miss distance of only 30 thousand miles from the center of the earth; the earth's radius is about 4 thousand miles. The time of encounter would be around 1:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, October 26, 2028.

There was still some uncertainty to the computation. On the one hand, it was possible that 1997 XF11 would come scarcely closer than the moon. On the other hand, the object could come significantly closer than 30 thousand miles. Further observations were necessary in order to refine the figures. It was also possible that prediscovery observations of 1997 XF11 could be located on archival photographs. Particularly favorable opportunities for recording the object would have occurred in 1990, 1983, 1976, 1971 and 1957. Ephemerides for these times are available, as is a current ephemeris.

Prediscovery images of 1997 XF11 were located by Ken Lawrence (JPL) on films taken at Palomar in 1990 during the Planet-Crossing Asteroid Survey by Eleanor Helin, Lawrence and Brian Roman using the 0.46-m Schmidt. The observations, on 1990 Mar. 22 and 23, were consistent with each other and allowed a much improved orbit to be derived for 1997 XF11. These latest computations show that the nominal miss distance will be 600 thousand miles on 2028 Oct. 26 around 2:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time. Although the chances for an actual collision with the earth in 2028 can now be discounted, the orbit of 1997 XF11 will continue to come close to the orbit of the earth for the forseeable future. Furhtur future notable close approaches to the earth will occur in 2002 (5.9 million miles), 2078 (7.5 million miles), 2090 (4.2 million miles) and 2095 (1.3 million miles).

The predicted 2028 approach distance of 600 thousand miles will be the closest predicted for any PHA up to that time. In 2086 the substantially smaller asteroid (2340) Hathor will come to a distance of 550 thousand miles from the earth.

A list of the closest known minor-planet approaches to the earth is available, as is a list of closest known approaches by comets. Also available is a list of predicted approaches to the earth within the next 33 years.

Brian G. Marsden (1998 March 11, updated March 12)
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An orbit diagram for 1997 XF11 showing the orbit in relation to the orbits of Venus, Earth and Mars is available. The view is from the north ecliptic pole and all objects revolve about the sun in a counter-clockwise direction (the vernal equinox is off to the right). The portion of the orbit of 1997 XF11 that lies below the ecliptic plane is shaded. The positions of the planetary bodies, marked by colored dots, are for 2028 Oct. 26--aalthough 600 thousand miles separate them, at the scale of this diagram the dots for the earth and 1997 XF11 overlap.
Source Article

[edit on 9/3/2007 by pjslug]

I definately remember them saying how big it was in the news report. Cant remember the exact numbers but it was i think above 10

They said Apophis 99942 is i think it was between 10-20. Now ive searched apophis and they are saying its 1 mile/under a mile wide?? Maybe i was just wrong, maybe not.

Maybe this is the same thing, who knows. But here is why they are so worried. If you take a look at earths orbit path in green and then look at Apophis's path they cross at least twice, and are close at times aswell.

The plan runs like this: Siz years from now, if there's still a chance of a collision in 2036 (not the pass in 2028 which also could cause a threat, but is virtually zero. Its the gravity that effects it to swing back round in 2036), NASA would start drawing up plans to put a probe on the space rock or in orbit around it in 2019. Measurements sent back from the probe would characterize Apophis' course to an accuracy of mere yards (meters) by the year 2020. Although the british are building probes/sattelites to reach it (hopefully) by 2014.


Just read the precise date for the pass by also, is apparently April 13 2029.Which it will be visible to the naked eye, darting across our skies. I am hoping on thsi date, some of the satellites get some pictures/video of it if possible. Now that would be cool, although i doubt they would release them to not spark off fear.


[edit on 3-9-2007 by Proto]

[edit on 3-9-2007 by Proto]