Mirthful Me's NFL 2007 Football Pool Thread...

Each year I participate (actually I'm co-founder and administrator) in a football pool (for entertainment purposes only) that was created because of one guy... That guy at the end of the bar... That guy who won't shut up and continues to claim that he's smarter than everyone when it comes to betting the line... Especially the Las Vegas book. I can't stand that guy... I (and everyone else) knows he is full of it... But how do you counter this? Well, I came up with a football pool to find out if anyone truly is smarter than those fine upstanding gents in Las Vegas. Pick every game against the line for 17 weeks and in the end, see what the results are (if this doesn't convince you that you can't beat Las Vegas, nothing will). The purpose of this thread is to merely track my progress (more like humiliation), but if anyone wants to join in and pick a week, or all of them; be my guest.

How it works:

Each week the Wednesday morning line is used to pick all games for the week. Here is the site we use:

For entertainment purposes only!

I will bold my picks, and for tie breaker purposes, give a score for the MNF game (in the case of two games, the late game is the one used for tie breaker scores). For a pick to win, the spread must be beat... If a team is favored by three, and wins by three then that game goes in the loss column (I know in Vegas you get your money back, but there's no money involved here, and this is about winning, not breaking even). All picks must be made before the kickoff of the first game of the week (in other words, watch out for those Thursday games).

Winning percentages are calculated by the week, and overall by both individual, and as a pool. (I'll provide my stats, along with my RL participants stats anonymously). There will be ugly weeks...

Sounds easy... Right?

Right. :shk:

Picking one game against the spread is easy... Picking them all is sheer madness.

If anyone has any questions, feel free to ask...

p.s. That "guy" won't join this pool, and that "guy" that you know, who's just like that "guy" I know... He won't do this either.

Pick example using this week's preseason games...

NFL Lines For Preseason Week 4 - NFL Football Line Week Four Preseason - NFL Game Lines 8/30 - 8/31, 2007

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

8/30 7:00 ET At Detroit -3 Buffalo 37
8/30 7:30 ET At New England -3 NY Giants 36
8/30 7:30 ET At Philadelphia -2.5 NY Jets 36.5
8/30 7:30 ET At Jacksonville -3.5 Washington 35
8/30 8:00 ET At Chicago -3.5 Cleveland 37
8/30 8:00 ET At Minnesota -2 Dallas 37
8/30 8:00 ET At Tennessee -7 Green Bay 37
8/30 8:00 ET At Tampa Bay -3 Houston 37
8/30 8:00 ET At St. Louis -3 Kansas City 36.5
8/30 8:00 ET At Carolina -3 Pittsburgh 35
8/30 8:00 ET Miami -1.5 At New Orleans 38
8/30 9:00 ET At Denver -4 Arizona 39.5
8/30 10:00 ET At San Diego -2.5 San Francisco 38.5
8/30 10:00 ET At Seattle -2.5 Oakland 37.5
8/31 7:30 ET Baltimore -3.5 At Atlanta 34
8/31 7:30 ET At Cincinnati -5 Indianapolis 40.5

There isn't a MNF game, but I'll pick the late Sunday night game score as an example:

Cincinnati 26 Indianapolis 17

For further edification on tiebreakers, the first tie breaker is closest to total score (over or under), second tiebreaker is closest to the game winner's score (over or under) and third is closest to game loser score (over or under)... I've never had to go past the second tie breaker.

Oh, one last thing... No editing posts that contain picks... If you make a mistake, you have to post again (before first kickoff).

GAME ON.

reply to post by intrepid


Then I am to expect some forthcoming picks by you?

Originally posted by Mirthful Me
reply to post by intrepid

 

Then I am to expect some forthcoming picks by you?

Yup but I'm waiting until after the final pre-season game. Injuries you know.

PARDON my ignorance, this sounds like fun and all, but can you elaborate on what the spread is? Yeah I know stupid question but seriously I don't know what it means? You know the over and under crap I just don't know.

reply to post by Bunch


If you remove money from the equation (and we have, this is about the science of picking against the spread), it's not hard. The point spread (or line) functions as an equalizer for sports betting. Every sport and league has it's good teams, and it's bad teams... The only way to make a match up between a good team and a bad team interesting is if it is "handicapped." This is done by subtracting a certain number of points from the favorite, or adding them to an underdog. This handicapping is done by experts who can gauge how much of an advantage one team has over another... Factors include team talent, injuries, playing at home or on the road, weather, who needs to win, etc. Here is an example:

Team A is reigning league champ, they play Team B who has been the league joke for years at home. They are favored by three touchdowns or -21 points. By the line, Team B has started the game with a 21 point lead... If they can maintain some of that lead (say Team A only beats them by 20 points) they will have "won" as far as a wager goes. If team A wins by more than 21 points they cover, and have "won." The "half point" you see in lines push you past a certain score difference (it's used to tease) 3 1/2 points is really 4... but most people just see the 3 (kind of like making something cost $9.99, that's ten bucks no matter how you look at it... but people don't).

Here's a primer but it's based on actual wagering (which we aren't doing here):

top-online-sportsbook.net...

Hope that helps.

Results so far

Originally posted by Mirthful Me
NFL Lines For Preseason Week 4 - NFL Football Line Week Four Preseason - NFL Game Lines 8/30 - 8/31, 2007

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

8/30 7:00 ET At Detroit -3 Buffalo 37
8/30 7:30 ET At New England -3 NY Giants 36
8/30 7:30 ET At Philadelphia -2.5 NY Jets 36.5
8/30 7:30 ET At Jacksonville -3.5 Washington 35
8/30 8:00 ET At Chicago -3.5 Cleveland 37
8/30 8:00 ET At Minnesota -2 Dallas 37
8/30 8:00 ET At Tennessee -7 Green Bay 37
8/30 8:00 ET At Tampa Bay -3 Houston 37
8/30 8:00 ET At St. Louis -3 Kansas City 36.5
8/30 8:00 ET At Carolina -3 Pittsburgh 35
8/30 8:00 ET Miami -1.5 At New Orleans 38
8/30 9:00 ET At Denver -4 Arizona 39.5
8/30 10:00 ET At San Diego -2.5 San Francisco 38.5
8/30 10:00 ET At Seattle -2.5 Oakland 37.5

8/30 7:00 ET At Detroit -3 Buffalo 37

Detroit lost outright... 13-16 L

8/30 7:30 ET At New England -3 NY Giants 36

New England covers easily... 27-20 W

8/30 7:30 ET At Philadelphia -2.5 NY Jets 36.5

Philadelphia loses outright... 11-13 L

8/30 7:30 ET At Jacksonville -3.5 Washington 35

Jacksonville covers big... 31-14 L

8/30 8:00 ET At Chicago -3.5 Cleveland 37

Chicago loses outright... 9-19 L

8/30 8:00 ET At Minnesota -2 Dallas 37

Minnesota covers big... 23-14 W

8/30 8:00 ET At Tennessee -7 Green Bay 37

Tennessee covers big... 30-14 L

8/30 8:00 ET At Tampa Bay -3 Houston 37

Tampa covers... 31-24 W

8/30 8:00 ET At St. Louis -3 Kansas City 36.5

St. Louis covers... 10-3 W

8/30 8:00 ET At Carolina -3 Pittsburgh 35

Pittsburgh wins outright... 19-3 W

8/30 8:00 ET Miami -1.5 At New Orleans 38

New Orleans wins outright... 7-0 L

8/30 9:00 ET At Denver -4 Arizona 39.5

Denver covers big... 21-3 W

8/30 10:00 ET At San Diego -2.5 San Francisco 38.5

San Diego just covers... 16-13 W

8/30 10:00 ET At Seattle -2.5 Oakland 37.5

Seattle covers... 19-14 W

8-6... Not bad for preseason, and I can't do worse than .500 for the week.

Originally posted by Mirthful Me
NFL Lines For Preseason Week 4 - NFL Football Line Week Four Preseason - NFL Game Lines 8/30 - 8/31, 2007

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
8/31 7:30 ET Baltimore -3.5 At Atlanta 34
8/31 7:30 ET At Cincinnati -5 Indianapolis 40.5

8/31 7:30 ET Baltimore -3.5 At Atlanta 34

Atlanta wins outright... 13-10 W

8/31 7:30 ET At Cincinnati -5 Indianapolis 40.5

Cincinnati covers... 14-6 W

10-6 overall for the week!

In the spirit of Sunday, I submit my picks:

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

9/6 8:30 ET At Indianapolis -5.5 New Orleans 51
9/9 1:00 ET At Houston -3 Kansas City 38
9/9 1:00 ET Denver -3.5 At Buffalo 37
9/9 1:00 ET Pittsburgh -4.5 At Cleveland 37
9/9 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -6.5 Tennessee 37.5
9/9 1:00 ET At St. Louis PK Carolina 42
9/9 1:00 ET Philadelphia -3 At Green Bay 43
9/9 1:00 ET At Minnesota -3 Atlanta 36
9/9 1:00 ET At Washington -3 Miami 35
9/9 1:00 ET New England -6.5 At NY Jets 41
9/9 4:15 ET At Seattle -6 Tampa Bay 41.5
9/9 4:15 ET At San Diego -6 Chicago 42.5
9/9 4:15 ET At Oakland -2 Detroit 39.5
9/9 8:15 ET At Dallas -5.5 NY Giants 44
Monday Night Football Line

9/10 7:00 ET At Cincinnati -3 Baltimore 40.5
9/10 10:15 ET At San Francisco -3 Arizona 45

Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh FOOTBALL SEASON!!

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

9/6 8:30 ET At Indianapolis -5.5 New Orleans 51
9/9 1:00 ET At Houston -3 Kansas City 38
9/9 1:00 ET Denver -3.5 At Buffalo 37
9/9 1:00 ET Pittsburgh -4.5 At Cleveland 37
9/9 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -6.5 Tennessee 37.5
9/9 1:00 ET At St. Louis PK Carolina 42
9/9 1:00 ET Philadelphia -3 At Green Bay 43
9/9 1:00 ET At Minnesota -3 Atlanta 36
9/9 1:00 ET At Washington -3 Miami 35
9/9 1:00 ET New England -6.5 At NY Jets 41
9/9 4:15 ET At Seattle -6 Tampa Bay 41.5
9/9 4:15 ET At San Diego -6 Chicago 42.5
9/9 4:15 ET At Oakland -2 Detroit 39.5
9/9 8:15 ET At Dallas -5.5 NY Giants 44
Monday Night Football Line

9/10 7:00 ET At Cincinnati -3 Baltimore 40.5
9/10 10:15 ET At San Francisco -3 Arizona 45

well, atleast one person hasnt forgotten oakland,but i can understand why people arent picking them to win, its not like they can do any worse than last year

So it begins...

I'll have my picks up soon. Some of my new RL pool members are having technical difficulties.

My hat in the ring...

NFL Point Spreads For Week 1 - Week One NFL Football Spread - NFL Game Spreads 9/6 - 9/10, 2007

Date & Time Favorite Spread Underdog

9/6 8:30 ET At Indianapolis -5.5 New Orleans
9/9 1:00 ET At Houston -3 Kansas City
9/9 1:00 ET Denver -3.5 At Buffalo
9/9 1:00 ET Pittsburgh -4.5 At Cleveland
9/9 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -6.5 Tennessee
9/9 1:00 ET At St. Louis -1 Carolina
9/9 1:00 ET Philadelphia -3 At Green Bay
9/9 1:00 ET At Minnesota -3 Atlanta
9/9 1:00 ET At Washington -3 Miami
9/9 1:00 ET New England -6.5 At NY Jets
9/9 4:15 ET At Seattle -6 Tampa Bay
9/9 4:15 ET At San Diego -6 Chicago
9/9 4:15 ET At Oakland -1.5 Detroit
9/9 8:15 ET At Dallas -6 NY Giants


Monday Night Football Point Spread

9/10 7:00 ET At Cincinnati -2.5 Baltimore
9/10 10:15 ET At San Francisco -3 Arizona

31 - 27

Ugh, favorite heavy in the first week.

Can't help but notice that you both took New Orleans and the points tonight in Indy.

I think the points will be immaterial. I can't shake the feeling that tonight is going to be a blowout one way or another. I can see one of those great offenses getting on a roll, forcing the other to push a little.

We'll see...

reply to post by Essedarius


My gut feeling on Indianapolis is that they will be unstoppable on offense, and will be equally incapable of stopping anyone on defense. Barring injury to key players, they will outscore their opponents during the regular season, but not by much. New Orleans is just good enough to hang, even in Peyton's house.

It should be a great game.

FWIW, my gut tells me San Diego may fall on it's face... I just don't have any faith in Norv Turner as a head coach.

Originally posted by Mirthful Me
Barring injury to key players, they [Indy] will outscore their opponents during the regular season, but not by much.

I agree with that...with a little trepidation...I think a lot of people are glossing over the fact that the Colts swapped out a pro bowl left tackle for a rookie this offseason. If Ugoh can't hang, and the Colts find themselves throwing 40 times a game, that could spell trouble.

That said, I think Manning gets rid of the ball fast enough and has a good enough run game that the offense won't completely tank.

FWIW, my gut tells me San Diego may fall on it's face... I just don't have any faith in Norv Turner as a head coach.

Funny you say that. I completely agree. I figure the Chargers must have DEEP, GREAT talent because everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that Norv Turner was HORRIBLE in Oakland and Washington.

I'm not saying Marty was FANTASTIC...but is Norv Turner better...really?

Oh you guys are gonna be SO SURPRISED at the Indy defense this year. Sanders is healthy, and even though they've lost a couple of starters to free agency, the DBs coming in are superior to who they're replacing, and the linebackers are going to be better as a unit.

McFarland being out doesn't help, but just wait. This D will not look much like the group from last year. Much improved.

Ugoh sure isn't Glenn (yet) but the draft acquisition of Gonzalez at slot receiver gives them a quick strike capability at least as good as what we had with Brandon Stokley.

Ohh yeah. Colts will be tough. Tougher.

Originally posted by yeahright
Ohh yeah. Colts...

I was wondering when you would show up.

I figured the bat-signal would go up as soon as two people picked against the Colts on the same thread...you know, a big horseshoe in the sky.

I love Gonzalez. I'm penciling him in for '04 Stokley numbers...70 catches, 1000 yards, 10 TDs.

Originally posted by Essedarius
I figured the bat-signal would go up as soon as two people picked against the Colts on the same thread...you know, a big horseshoe in the sky.

I'm too predictable.

The city's rockin'. I can see the Circle from an office window. Traffic's closed off, people milling around. Stages set up, booths, light towers, tour busses, a six story picture of Reggie Bush & Peyton Manning on the side of a building. It's already huge and the game's still 5 hours away. I'm surprised it's Bush instead of Brees, who played his college ball up the road at Purdue, but anyway...

Gonzalez is the real deal. And I can't wait for tonight's game.