reply to post by infinite
Most of us are not aware of the geographic location in Iran and it’s constraints. Let’s look at a few simple facts. As an introduction, a brief
cite from Wikipedia:
“The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow, strategically important waterway between the Gulf of Oman in the southeast and the Persian Gulf in the southwest.
On the north coast is Iran (Persia) and on the south coast is the United Arab Emirates and Musandam, an exclave of Oman.
The strait at its narrowest is 21 miles wide, having two 1-mile-wide channels for marine traffic separated by a 2-mile-wide buffer zone, and is the
only sea passage to the open ocean for large areas of the petroleum exporting Persian Gulf States. Some 40 percent of the world's oil supply passes
through the strait. For this reason, the strait is an important strategic military location in the Middle East.”
What does all of this suggest? Initially, since Iran fully intends to dominate the Middle East, it will do so by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s military industrial complex should be flattened to stop production of :
!) Their new medium- range land-to-sea missile, dubbed "Kowsar", which is capable of resisting electronic jamming systems and is equipped with
remote- control and searching systems. As I previously mentioned, it appears that Iran has the capability to mass-produce the new missiles.
2) Iran’s new cruise missile called SSN4, or Raad, capable of hitting targets 300 kilometres away in the sea of Oman and northern Indian Ocean. The
SSN4 missile has the final range of 350 kilometers, can carry a 500 kilo warhead and can fly at low altitude. It appears capable of evading radar
jamming and may withstand electronic measures.
3) Iran’s new surface-to-surface missile called Saegheh or lightning in Farsi, which has a range of between 80 and 250 kilometers (50 and 155
miles). The Iranians also are said to be developing a stealthy airborne missile, so just pick one of the above).
4) Iran’s new Azarakhsh, or "Lightning," a home grown, Iranian produced jet fighter, reportedly modeled on the U.S. F-5 jet. The Iranian military
also redesigned an F-18 fighter jet and dubbed it Saegheh, or "Thunder," which was publicly test-flown earlier this year.
5) Iran’s new " sonar-dodging, hyper-speed underwater missile-torpedo," (The “Hoot”) made of radar absorbing materials, which news reports say
was tested during recent military exercises in the Persian Gulf area.
As of late 2003, Iran possesses the second largest ballistic missile force in the third world (behind that of the DPRK) and is on the verge of
developing a space launch vehicle and intercontinental ballistic missiles. See www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran/Missile/index.html
The preceding list left out submarines, shipping, explosive production, etc. We all know how many ordinances the Iranians are shipping to kill our
boys in Iraq, so why belabor the obvious?
Having observed the preceding, there are artillery shells that can fire further than 21 miles, the width of the Strait at its narrowest point. Iran
wants to be able to close the Strait indefinitely, and that’s obviously why they are going to such great lengths to enhance conventional and nuclear
capabilities. Any normal person can easily discern that they are preparing to fight a protracted war. And all the while, we negotiate, which buys
them more and more time to build up further. Iran is not far from their objective; they just need time.
Clearly, Iran intends to dominate the geopolitics of the Middle East, and is presently the premier Arab power in the region.
Now becomes the question as to why Iran want’s to dominate the geopolitics of the Middle East. Essentially, the Iranians’ appear to be ruled by
fanatical Muslims. They embrace a holy book we think of as the Koran, or Qar’an. The Qar’an is not friendly to Christians or Jews.
The following are two illuminating cites from the Qar’an.
"But when the forbidden months are past, then fight and slay the Pagans wherever ye find them, and seize them, beleaguer them, and lie in wait for
them in every stratagem (of war); but if they repent, and establish regular prayers and practice regular charity, then open the way for them: for
Allah is Oft-forgiving, Most Merciful”. [Qur'an 9:5]
“Fight those who believe not in Allah nor the Last Day, nor hold that forbidden which hath been forbidden by Allah and His Messenger, nor
acknowledge the religion of Truth, (even if they are) of the People of the Book, until they pay the Jizya with willing submission, and feel themselves
subdued. The Jews call 'Uzair a son of Allah, and the Christians call Christ the son of Allah. That is a saying from their mouth; (in this) they but
imitate what the unbelievers of old used to say. Allah's curse be on them: how they are deluded away from the Truth!” [Qur'an 9:29-30]"
The bottom line appears to be that the Qur’an requires world domination, and we are part of the world they want to dominate. They might settle for
destroying Israel, but their holy book requires them to rule the world under an Islamic system of government.
Of equal importance is balancing the power vacuum we have left by invading Iraq.
Having declawed Iraq, when we leave there will be absolutely nothing to stop Iran from invading Iraq outright, or more likely from manipulating Iraq
vis-a-vis Islamic theocracy. In the latter event, we will be faced with a greater threat than before we arrived on the Iraqi scene. Wouldn't that
be a terrible waste?
I really don't have the answers, but do comprehend that we have imbalanced the region by declawing Iraq. Washington may eventually recognize that it
will be necessary to restore the geopolitical balance by decimating the Iranian military industrial complex. However, by viewing an extremely
abbreviated list of Iranian hardware being manufactured, it would not be a simple matter to flatten the Iranian military industrial complex. While we
were negotiating, the Russians recently sold Iran an advanced missile defense system. Defeating Iran may now be a most onerous task indeed. Iran
builds up more, and we talk more. Who’s making progress?
On the bright side, the House of Saud is still intact, and is probably more concerned about Iran than we are at the moment. During this brief time
(should the radicals be defeated) the House of Saud has a chance to retain power. Saudi Arabia is admittedly a primary exporter of Islamic terrorism,
and a huge backdoor financier of terrorism. The House of Saud is between a rock and a hard place, since their Imam’s require their financing of
global terrorism, sort of like tithing to them. If the House of Saud were to be not at all compliant, they would lose power, since the Imams control a
lot of power there. Under a best case scenario, should the House of Saud not assist with decimating the Iranian military industrial infrastructure,
they won’t survive longer than five to ten years. Like the Palestinian saying goes, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
All this having been noted, a single Iranian atomic weapon will decimate Israel, and would cripple America, and the Iranians may have one by 2008.
They appear fanatical enough to use it when they have it
America must become energy self-sufficient, the importance of which cannot be overstated. The question is whether there is time for America to
achieve energy self-sufficiency prior to neutralizing Iran’s capabilities? Looks like we better get busy on all fronts.
As a practical matter, a dominant Iran is a huge liability to oil exports going through the Strait, so big business will hopefully make the call to
neutralize the Iranian threat. Eventually, this may not be perceived as a moral issue, but as a business issue. If Iran remains unchecked, they will
close down the Strait when they are ready. I’d merely opine that Iran’s closing down the Strait is a guarantee, should they remain on course. By
the time the Iranians are done, that may be the least of our worries.
Well they say Rome burned while Nero fiddled and that history repeats itself.