posted on Aug, 31 2007 @ 03:29 PM
I would like to mention a couple of things because I have been sort of keeping up with this whole mess.
For it 2 be an official recession they are using the formulas, GDP(gross domestic product) down for two straight quarters, we are already in a housing
recession, once that is equaled on the consumer spending side, I think that would sort of put the official seal on the deal and we can call it one.
Someone mentioned credit and subprime, yes that is one of the problems but it is my understanding this was about to happen anyhow and the market could
not sustain itself, and I read that the whole concept of the way a bank extends credit was really put into full effect because of the depression, most
people had no money to pay for anything immediatly after the depression so it became business practice to extend credit to consumers for both large
and small purchases.
One BIG problem that no one really is talking about is the personal savings rate, people are not saving any of their income, or really making enough
to have any real savings, yet for the market outlook to remain positive, consumers spending their money is a plus not holding on to it, in a way it
looks like they do not want you to save, because if you saved you really would't need credit would you??? you would have the money to buy what you
need outright and wouldn't have to make loans and have a credit card.
As far as the mortgage lending problems are concerned, if the banks would have kept the 15% - 20% downpayment rules in effect in order get a mortgage,
for the most part no one would have been able to buy a house because they have NO savings....this entire thing is more complex as it has played out,
yet so simple to have avoided, they became greedy and wanted to get as many mortgages as they could and turn them into securities and make money
exponentially off of the consumers making the interest only payments where they essentially rented money.
And then this month all of these things started to ramp as far as the problems coming to a head, the Fed said everything was pretty much ok at the
meeting before they cut the Fed Funds Rate for Banks earlier in the month, then about 2 weeks later they found themselves making that cut, injecting
or pumping money into the banking system almost every day for about 2 weeks straight in order to keep them afloat and try and keep the market from all
out crashing, and then on top of that the 4 largest banks ask for 500million each, some analysts say these are very bad signs of the shape the banks
are in, this did not all come from subprime, I am not convinced of it, yet is is a part of the whole problem and the people are not hearing the real
story or getting the full impact of this yet.