Originally posted by SkepticOverlord
The conspiracy-inspired hysteria seems focused on the belief that "someone" is aware of another big attack coming. While this might be a sound knee-jerk response from "Tin Foil Hat Brigade," I'm not so sure... these trades are very traceable. I just can't buy the idea that these trades are initiated by someone with information about a new attack.

Yeah, perhaps they will try and trace them just like they did with the airline options taken out just before 911. Oh wait, they didn't bother.

I really have no knowledge of how the stocks work or anything like that, but since this is a conspiracy forum, heres my opinion...

Whoever is behind these bets has some type of inside knowledge, and as was mentioned, these would be very traceable, so perhaps they either don't care or what they know is so deep that it does not matter if its traced back to them.

In reality, I think its just some rich person/group trying to make even more money off of an uncertain market. Still something to keep an eye on. Keep me updated, you guys really seem to know what you're talking about

I smell "boiler room" bs.

Originally posted by uberarcanist
I smell "boiler room" bs.

That's ridiculous. We are not talking about some boiler room pump job on a penny stock with a few million in volume traded, we are talking about a multibillior dollar trade, that has to move down 30% or the person/group who bought the contracts loses everything.

Originally posted by pompano
... that has to move down 30% or the person/group who bought the contracts loses everything.

Not true, the title of this article is wrong. If you read the text, they are talking about writing in-the-money calls, not buying puts. Actually this is a fairly low-risk trade if you believe the markets will be down or at least flat.

If you had inside information of an upcoming market crash, this is not the type of trade you would normally make. You'd most likely buy puts of the SPX futures outright. That would give you the most return for your initial investment/margin requirement.

[edit on 8/26/2007 by djohnsto77]

My second guts tell me this purchase event is in place to offset what is actually really gonna happen, and where the money is really gonna be made.

My bets are on the latter.



edit-in other words, the puts are being covered in the event interst rates are bumped up.

If you are betting on a longshot with a huge payoff, you also bet on the other side to reduce your losses in the event it doesnt happen.

Know what I mean?

[edit on 26-8-2007 by smirkley]

DJ, do you think the calls could be the opposite side to some of the puts on the same stock, like in some of the more complicated option strategies?
(Straddles, strangles, spreads etc....) I think I may understand straddles and stangles, but don't have the confidence or bankroll ( or risk tolerance if i did) to really concentrate on those strategies that much. I see lots of short interest on the put side on the S&P as well could these be the other side to that trade (if it's a spread)?

I honestly can't tell if whoever put this on is expecting a boom or a crash. The transaction costs must be huge. Over at the tickerforum they are saying that the transaction was coded as a spread.It boggles the mind.

I have heard thursday 20th Sep refered to as "triple witching thursday" due to options expiration, the fed meeting, and 3Qearnings forcasts (not sure about that last one,but 3 market moving events falling close together).

Anyone have any Idea what the signifigance is of the 245,000 !!!put options against the DJ Eurostoxx 50 is across the pond? I understand that European options differ from American options in that they can only be exercised on the day of expiration wheras American options can be exercised at any time.

It's confusing and seems ominous especially with big bets against both the S&P and the biggest 50 European stocks. What events, could affect both that dramatically? Bigger war in mideast, China dumping the $, a big moneycenter bank failing(or more), or what?

The unwinding of the yen carry will definately affect both but 30%. I know that something like 20% of the S&P are financials anyone know what the DJ Eurostoxx 50 percentage is financial?

I wish I had something more than questions a ttheory or something but something just seems odd. The transaction costs would be huge, the amount of stock that the S&P trade would tie up is rediculous.

[edit on 26-8-2007 by jefwane]

[edit on 26-8-2007 by jefwane]

Originally posted by jefwane
DJ, do you think the calls could be the opposite side to some of the puts on the same stock, like in some of the more complicated option strategies?

Certainly. Not on an individual stock, but on the stock index.

IMO, this really could be almost anything, including computer arbitrage program trading.

It looks to me like someone took some esoteric data on options positions and blew it way out of proportion.

[edit on 8/26/2007 by djohnsto77]

all i got to say is china

This is all very interesting, and a little worrying.

I don't think anything is going to happen at all though, but if it does lord help us because we are going to be in some deep s**t.

By the way, what would happen if something like the Stock market falls, besides some guy getting rich off of it?

Originally posted by Duzey
SPX 700 is the S&P 700 - S&P Global 1200 minus the S&P 500.

correct,

now just how is the speculation that the USA market is going to melt down or the homeland to get attacked arising out of this??

A: the SPX 700 is that group of non-USA
(which means the EU & Asian stocks)
that are in a Standard & Poor Index

B: the SPX 500 is only the USA component of companies.


so, in straight logic, someone is shorting the 700 big corporations in
EU & Asian stocks, not the 500 big corporations of U.S. stocks.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~


on the other hand, maybe its not that the S&P 700 (outside of the USA)
is going to suffer a major correction.

It may be more along the lines of revaluing the EU & Pound & Yen & Yuan against the USA 'petro'Dollar...

if the dollar gets a major surge in value then the value of those non-USA stocks take a tumble.?


[edit on 26-8-2007 by St Udio]

SkepticOverlord
I just can't buy the idea that these trades are initiated by someone with information about a new attack.

they tracked back a cia member reguarding put options after 9/11

I'm not believing any of the "sky is falling" hype. I've been saying these boards are wrong for the past month. In fact, I just put a large portion of my money back into the stock market.. I feel it has hit bottom. To any naysayers, one of the stocks I just bought finished up 21.60% on Friday (!!!) Several others are up 4% or more this week as well. I will provide the charts if needed, but I don't want to type out a big disclaimer. Simply saying... the stock market is not coming to a halt.. there are still people happily in it, and quite bullish.

Terrorist attacks will not ruin the stock market, it will drive the price for gold, oil, defense stocks, etc. through the roof. And even if someone hit a stock exchange building directly, it might shut it down for a few days, but so much trading is digital now that I don't think it would have a very big impact.

The next 3 weeks or so are going to be good, then the stock market will re-test it's lows and everyone will panic, and then things will start heading back up for a while.

[edit on 8/26/2007 by Yarcofin]