The Bin Laden trade: $2 Billion bet markets will crash in less than 3 weeks

Read about the mechanics of the trade on the S&P at the tickerforum.org. Link to the thread that first noticed the trade and analyzed it is provided below. The moderator of the site, Genesis, has dubbed the trade the "Bin Laden Trade" because the only way this enormous trade pays off is if the market crashes more than 30% in less than 3 weeks. This is an investment forum. Traders with 25 years experience (avr8phil) are saying that they have never seen a trade like this one. With such enormous risk and such a large sum at stake it can be surmised that the smart money "knows" something big is coming.

www.tickerforum.org...

The financial markets are useful to study because foreknowledge of attacks is usually there. People in the know often try to take advantage of their inside knowledge. Prior to 9/11 we saw massive trades indicating that an attack was coming.

Huge surges in purchases of put options on stocks of the two airlines used in the attack -- United Airlines and American Airlines
Surges in purchases of put options on stocks of reinsurance companies expected to pay out billions to cover losses from the attack -- Munich Re and the AXA Group
Surges in purchases of put options on stocks of financial services companies hurt by the attack -- Merrill Lynch & Co., and Morgan Stanley and Bank of America
Huge surge in purchases of call options of stock of a weapons manufacturer expected to gain from the attack -- Raytheon
Huge surges in purchases of 5-Year US Treasury Notes

911research.wtc7.net...

I'm not particularly savvy about the inner workings of the markets. But is this is true it would certainly seem to be immensely important. Surely there are ATS experts that can offer some additional info to this.

reply to post by jtma508


Remember, the same thing happened last year around this time,
October surprise? Spike in Put Options...

It was alarming then, but nothing happened.
I would still like to see an ATS 'subject matter expert' tackle this,
or anyone else who can provide some insight.

www.abovetopsecret.com...


[Edit]
I guess I should have added more.

I was mearly linking to another thread which talks about the "Bin Laden" trade a little more indepth, sorry.

[edit on 25/8/07 by Pfeil]

reply to post by Pfeil


This thread is older than that one.

Pretty much EVCERYTHING that is predicted on here never comes to fruition. I wouldnt put too much stock into this (no pun intended).

Mmmmmmmmm

This is speculative the US market is somewhat depressed and with the Fed bank bailing out stocks and bolstering the markets to the tune of 100+ billion a 2 billion gamble is nothing more than a small bet for big (and I do mean big) gambler/s.

It may suprise you to find out that this kind of gamble goes on all the time how else do people get rich

Americans may be a bit daft when it comes to some things but not when it comes to making (and protecting) money, especially their own!!!!!

Munro_DreadGod- I think you have it, wild speculators, but why is this sort of thing in the public. Is transactions not private.

No - its all done at the brokers and on the exchanges anything done behind closed doors is usually illegal - only corporate dealings are private and they then effect stock prices. Anyone in the know and who gets caught is done for insider dealing or trading I believe.

The markets are ment to be open, honest and fair

what of the value of the options from last year? i read the thread but the numbers arent clear.

This was a billionare if it was one person, that makes a difference. the profit on the 911 options was only 24 million i think, a 50 mil total deal... this is like a commitment of a lot more...

Must be nothing to it but...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

on 15th of august, the new launch date of the japanese probe that will map and scan the moon by someone other than Nasa. The new launch date is 18 days from now. The options began to roll in on the 16th of august. So if you really want to stretch for an alternative reason behind the stockmarket option I guess you could consider that before the end of september there will be some new images and data from the moon, with state of the art equipment that does not belong to Nasa.

But yeah in any event, seems pretty interesting...

I guess the only thing we can do is wait and see what if anything happens.

Shameless plug to a dead thread, I know.

Interesting update..

According to www.tickerforum.org thread,
someone has placed similar bets on the European market:

Mystery trader bets market will crash by a third

An anonymous investor has placed a bet on an index of Europe's top 50 stocks falling by a third by the end of September, as world equity markets plunged for a third day and volatility hit a three-year high.

The mystery investor has bought put option contracts on the DJ Eurostoxx 50 index that will result in a profit if it plunges to 2,800 or below by the end of September. Based on the 2,800 strike price, the position covers a notional €6.9bn, and potentially even more using a market price of about 4,100 when the trades were done on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Ok, let's see some ATS discussion on this!

[edit link]

[edit on 8/25/2007 by aecreate]

Mystery trader bets market will crash by a third Renée Schultes
16 Aug 2007
www.financialnews-us.com...

it is clear that the vicious, self-reinforcing, downward spiral we were worrying about is already firmly established."

Markets to plunge 30% by the end of September?
www.uglychart.com...


ommercial Paper Has Biggest Weekly Drop Since 2000 (Update3)
By Darrell Hassler
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg)
www.bloomberg.com...

the commercial paper market, in terms of the asset-backed commercial paper market, is basically history

Bank of China Holds $9.7 Billion of Subprime Assets (Update2)
By Luo Jun and Bei Hu
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg)
www.bloomberg.com...

China's currency regulator this week said it will let Chinese citizens with a Bank of China account in the northern city of Tianjin buy Hong Kong stocks for the first time, opening the gate for China's $2.2 trillion of household savings to flow offshore.

www.efinancialnews.com...

Lisa Haines
23 Aug 2007
An influential bond manager has called for the Bush administration to bail out US homeowners hit by the sub-prime mortgage fallout, rather than the Federal Reserve.

www.libertypost.org...

Check comment nine (9) at libertypost:

Let me suggest a non-tinfoil hat explanation for the $1.7B call selling. Let's say I'm a hedge/mutual fund facing $1.7B of customer redemptions. I need to raise some cash, but I'm so big I'm afraid of roaching the market by selling.

not sure... but its headed towards 2 am... time for sleep

I am,

Sri Oracle

US Troops are DEPLOYING To Washington, I know its most like caught in a similar thread, but it seems directly related to this puzzle of the puzzling trading that is going on??

WTF is going on??

www.wesh.com...

(Mod Edit: Don't Insult Your Fellow Members)

[edit on 26-8-2007 by WyrdeOne]

This gets even more worrying.

There are lots of little movements and uncomfortable tidbits of news that seem to point to something bad on the horizon.

While the Fed meets every year in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for its annual symposium, this year they're apparently meeting in the secret Continuity of Government facility (Aug. 31). Never have they met there, if indeed these reports bear truth.

The COG aspect seems to be rumor at this point. And if it's not true, than this is nothing but business as usual. What's especially noteworthy is that its the Board of Governors who are meeting in COG -- they would be the ones fleeted to there in the event of an attack on America.

If you are seriously worried about the market crashing then get out of debt by September 21st, 2007 (the day the puts and calls expire) and buy lots of camping gear and cases of clean water. Is it that hard to figure out?

Don't get skeered, get smart. You thought yourself into this state of mind now think your way out. Getting out of debt and paying off all credit cards is a good place to start regardless if the market crashes or not.

What i find interesting is in that traders forum one of the posters makes the point that only a terrorist attack or a major assasination in September could make the market lose 30%.........which makes me think of the APEC meeting being held in my hometown Sydney, Australia.

George W Bush is attending.

Pure speculation, but it has me thinking "what if".....

Found this interesting video interview of
Stevie Smith

Something is up. People with that kind of money don't bet like that without some kind of inside info.