Dangerous Hurricane Dean..UPDATES

Originally posted by Viszet Oki
i'm wondering why the noaa is missing a frame in the sat loop?
link to my thread

Probably because someone was having a donut break and missed it... ha ha!

Originally posted by Indy
I am puzzled. The NHC reports the storm as having 145mph sustained winds. Yet Kingston which should have gotten the full brunt of this storm reported sustained winds of 80mph.

I think there are mountains around Kingston that helped block the winds.


Here's the 2AM info:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE TODAY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DEAN COULD
REACH CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

[edit on 8/20/2007 by djohnsto77]

[edit on 8/20/2007 by djohnsto77]

Stop believing it is going to Mexico. It is all what the people want. Every day the official track keeps going farther south. They want the people to think it farther south. Sooner or later they will make it track backwards...

It's worth repeating :

Jamaica declares state of emergency



Jamaica declares state of emergency

Dean was already a powerful Category 4 storm as it raked the Cayman Islands. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said it could grow into a monstrous Category 5 hurricane before slashing across the Yucatan Peninsula and emerging in the oil-rich Gulf of Campeche

Source:Associated Press

This says it was added 28 minutes ago. Says it should head towards Yucutan.

Originally posted by pyrolimeade
Stop believing it is going to Mexico. It is all what the people want. Every day the official track keeps going farther south. They want the people to think it farther south. Sooner or later they will make it track backwards...

I'll take that bet... what's the stakes?

5 PM Update

Still listed as Cat 4, but pressure is dropping:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN EXPECTED TO STRIKE THE YUCATAN
TONIGHT...COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE LANDFALL...
...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...AND DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.
...
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.
...
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB.

I wonder if Dean will be one of the few storms that successfully makes a jump from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

[edit on 8/20/2007 by djohnsto77]

reply to post by sp00ner


The thing is that after it crosses the Yucatan, the storm loses a massive amount of energy, this makes it more susceptible to even the most minor steering currents in the Gulf.
Check out the track that Hurricane Roxanne took in 1995, it completely defied the forecasts for it and pretty much did what she wanted to do, sounds like most women I know
Even though she eventually went on to hit close to its predicted path, you can see by this image that it took a couple of completely unexpected turns and twists before getting there.


upload.wikimedia.org...


If Dean does come off of the Yucatan in good area, with plenty of water surrounding him, then it could very well alter its predicted path and theres no telling where he would hit.
I am very biased though because I do want it to track more towards the North and hit somewhere on the US Gulf Coast (I have my own reasons for this)

Btw, theres no need to post the entire reports from NOAA or the NHS, just the relevant information and then a link to the entire report would be fine.



[edit on 8/20/2007 by Kr0n0s]

mod edit, remove tags, image skewing page

[edit on 20-8-2007 by DontTreadOnMe]

Originally posted by Hellmutt
Jamaica declares state of emergency



Jamaica declares state of emergency

I have a feeling that it will be at least a few days until we really know the extent of damage/injuries/deaths in Jamaica.

Originally posted by Kr0n0s
I am very biased though because I do want it to track more towards the North and hit somewhere on the US Gulf Coast (I have my own reasons for this)

You have reasons for desiring this?

Either you're just a sadistic person who wants to see his own countrymen die, or you own a bunch of petroleum futures and/or options.

That sucks - I just applied for a student loan, and my school's financial firm (that processes disbursement of funds) is in Jamaica. I'm never getting my check.

I sure hope all the Rastas found shelter from the hurricane. Their modest housing isn't quite hurricane rated.

Originally posted by Kr0n0s
reply to post by sp00ner

 

The thing is that after it crosses the Yucatan, the storm loses a massive amount of energy, this makes it more susceptible to even the most minor steering currents in the Gulf.

Sure, but from all indicators, the steering variables are going to push it due west, this has been the original track all along (basically), at least as I've been following it.

I do want it to track more towards the North and hit somewhere on the US Gulf Coast (I have my own reasons for this)

Ya know, reading your posts i though I was talking to someone worthy of respect. Apparently you learn something new every day... I can only assume that it's related to your work... I have family that lives all along the gulf coast. I can only hope that was a misformed statement that you'll be explaining, else, I have my own reasons for hoping for a tornado to come visit your family while they're caught on a highway...

Originally posted by Kr0n0s
Btw, theres no need to post the entire reports from NOAA or the NHS, just the relevant information and then a link to the entire report would be fine.

It appears you mean this for me?

I'm not posting the entire reports, just the highlights and the map. These links are not persistent on the NOAA/NHC webservers, so it's good to have a record here of what was said, especially in the case of a big storm where questions could arise later (such as Katrina).

[edit on 8/20/2007 by djohnsto77]

reply to post by sp00ner


Sure, id be happy to clarify. first of all i didnt wish for anyone person to be hit, not your family or anyone else. Secondly, I to live on the coast, thousands of us do. I live in Corpus Christi, which is on the South Central Tx coast and so does my family, so I know exactly what is at stake and Ive personally been in a couple of storms since 04.
When a storm hits, I arrive on scene within 24 hours and am usually there for a few months and more than once, after arriving on scene, I've been in the path of another hurricane that hits.
After arriving for Charley in 04 I started working on claims and was very close to the landfall of Frances and Jeanne. Then in 05 after arriving in La to work claims for Katrina, Rita came in and made landfall within just a few miles of the hotel I was in, evacuation was not an option. Ive posted this info in this thread on one of the previous pages.
So to answer your questions, no im not mean or wish harm on anyone.
The type of work I do, heavily relies on where a storm hits and how much damage it does. Believe me, ive seen the worst these things have to offer and lived through them first hand not via CNN or Fox. I know its kind of like being a "grim reaper" or something but someone has to do it and I do provide a service to people. I dont actually work for an insurance company, so I am never pressured to "low ball" people, I do my best to get a person every penny they are owed and do it as fast as humanly possible.
Usually, I have up to 2 weeks to arrive on site but I like to get in with the first responders and begin work immediately, sometimes peoples lives depend on how fast they get their money and by showing up within a day, im sometimes able to get a check in peoples hands within 24-48 hours, way before business and their banks even open.
I put my life at risk as well by showing up so quickly, I face no electricity, running water, limited gas and very unsafe conditions, right along with the poor people that were in its path.
So, if that makes me a horrible person then so be it but I've met many people that would argue otherwise. Some people are so happy to see me, theyve offered me their first born (but grown), virgin daughter to keep me company while away from home.. ok thats a slight exaggeration but I have been offered a bed and daily meals by some lonely but grateful women
lol

By the way, for the record; I couldn't care less if I have your "respect" or not, I dont even know you but if i did I still wouldnt worry what you thought of me.
Im a single father and I know what has to be done to provide food, clothes and shelter for my son and if that makes me an immoral person in your eyes, then so be it..
no offense intended, thats just the way it is.

[edit on 8/20/2007 by Kr0n0s]

Originally posted by Kr0n0s


... and if that makes me an immoral person in your eyes, then so be it..
no offense intended, thats just the way it is.

[edit on 8/20/2007 by Kr0n0s]

Well, sometimes having an offensive outlook isn't intentional...just the way it is. Yeah, you're pretty pathetic. No offense intended, that's just the way it is.

reply to post by Valhall


And your opinion means what? It means nothing to me and thats all that counts.
its reality so grow up, if you dont like the type of work that I do, then dont go into to the insurance industry. While your at it, stay out of the construction/repair industries and anything to do with clean up. Theres a company called service masters that went from just having a few franchises to being a multimillion dollar business all along the gulf coast because of the four huge storms that hit Florida in 04
If you want an imaginary life thats tailored to fit your ideal world, then
totally immerse yourself into Sims and leave this world to the realists.


Anyway, enough of the OT comments, need to focus on the topic that the OP intended on which is Hurricane Dean.
There are no real change to the storm, it is a really good looking hurricane with nice symmetry and a very clear eye and is expected to hit a Category 5 status sometime tonight or early tomorrow morning.
The forecast models havent changed to much, with all of them still putting the Dean into the western coast of Mexico but like i said, once it crosses the Yucatan, well have a better idea.

Source

Hurricane Dean is intensifying. The latest Hurricane Hunter data and satellite intensity estimates both show an intensifying storm, and the 3:54pm EDT eye report showed a 6 mb pressure drop in less than two hours, which is a big fall. The pressure now stands at 918 mb, which is the lowest pressure Dean has attained thus far. The storm is over waters with very high heat content, and is under light wind shear, so continued intensification is probable. Landfall is expected near Chetumal, Mexico, just after midnight local time. Dean will be a tremendously destructive storm for southern Mexico. Dean is powerful enough to be able to survive the crossing of the Yucatan as a hurricane, and hurricane advisories have been posted for cities on the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The only hurricanes on record that survived crossing this portion of the Yucatan and maintaining hurricane intensity were Hurricane Roxanne of 1995, which hit just south of Cozumel as a Category 3, and emerged near Campeche as a Category 1; and Hurricane Janet of 1955, which hit near Chetumal as a Category 5 storm, then weakened to a Category 2 storm when it popped out into the Gulf of Mexico south of Campeche. We can expect Dean will carve out a path of great destruction all the way across the Yucatan Peninsula, then potentially re-intensify before hitting Mexico again along the Gulf Coast in the Bay of Campeche.

[edit on 8/20/2007 by Kr0n0s]

Originally posted by Kr0n0s
reply to post by Valhall

 

And your opinion means what? It means nothing to me and thats all that counts.
its reality so grow up, if you dont like the type of work that I do, then dont go into to the insurance industry.

I didn't.

anyway, theres no real change to the storm,

bummer for the people of Mexico, you and Service Master...it's just a real sucky day isn't it?

The Missing Mile

Hurricane Dean's winds are only one mile per hour short of making him a category 5 storm; pressure still dropping:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

...HURRICANE DEAN VERY NEAR CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH...
...OUTER BANDS ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW
NEAR 155 MPH...245 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...AND DEAN IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

Why is it that i get the feeling that this will somehow aid the North American Union in some way, shape or form. Does any one else have the gut feeling that part of this will be exploited to push it? what if all along the border between Mexico and U.S.A gets ravaged by the storm? Anyone like to stretch this further......i could be makin a fool of myself here!