Clinton? Obama? or Edwards? Who Will It Be?

reply to post by xpert11

Civil unrest at the democratic convention wont be a first if I have my facts straight . In 1964 or 68 Vietnam War protesters overshadowed the democratic convention . Returning to the current day or rather near future over zealous law enforcement could well be what sparks the powered keg which in turn causes peaceful protest to become riots.

That was the Chicago convention in 1968. Mayor Daley (father of the current mayor both named Richard but not Jr) was not a man to take insult lightly. When the anti-war demonstrators threatened to block the hotels and the way to the convention hall, Mayor Daley called out the Chicago Police - perhaps ALL white cops - and give them orders to “untangle” the mob. Who said what and who did what is a mystery, but us Liberals called it a POLICE RIOT in Lafayette Park. Captured on live tv, it was not pleasant to watch. Many people including me contend that episode more than any other single event gave the election to Richard Nixon.

that piece of film has been shown so many times that it's become "enshrined" in American society. If today's anti-war movement is any indication, we may NOT see events of that magnitude at the Denver convention. Don? What says you?

reply to post by Justin Oldham

If today's anti-war movement is any indication, we may NOT see events of that magnitude at the Denver convention. Don? What says you?

Agreed. If my memory serves, the US KIA in Vietnam by late '68 was 30,000 range. Today in Iraq we're at just under 4,100. In '68 the men doing most of the dying were black and poor whites. today, we have a well balanced Armed Forces with blacks, Hispanics and whites sharing equally in the KIA in the Bush43 Adventure in Iraq.

Plus, despite blacks continuing to LAG BEHIND whites and all others, they are not as openly OPPRESSED or REPRESSED as they were in the 1960s. But we ought to take some caution from the tone of the RAPPERS and the hip-hops. There is oodles of rage pent up in the black psyche.

The electronic media will not let go of Rev. Wright and Obama cannot placate them. This is a deplorable example of how LOW the media will go for Nielsen Ratings. It's Rupert Murdoch's wildest dreams come true.

For those who are interested, I'd encourage you to watch "Meet the Press" this weekend. Senator Barack Obam will be Russert's guest for the first half our. I don't know if he will be on the for whole thing. His performance on MTO could give you some insights in to his own thinking, at this time. If you miss MTP, you can watch it on the net.

reply to post by Justin Oldham

Senator Barack Obam will be Russet's guest for the first half our. I don't know if he will be on the for whole thing. His performance on MTP could give you some insights in to his own thinking, at this time. If you miss MTP, you can watch it on the net.

Excellent commentary is also found on PBS Bill Moyer’s Journal. Kathleen Jamison appears with Bill Moyer. It maybe available on the website. Or it will be rerun a couple times on PBS.

With the Indiana and North Carolina primaries coming on Tuesday, we should expect that any public appearnaces by the Democratic candidates will have some impace on the voting public.

Indiana, in particular, appears to be most decisive. If Senator Clinton loses to Senator Obama--by whatever margin--we should excpect a shift in Super Delegates. DNC party chair Howard Dean has been pushing for that. He may get his wish.

Political strategists including those in the Republican camp will be quietly taking notes . The full extend of the after effects of Super Tuesday failing to be decisive remains to be seen although there have been predictions made in this thread. The stalemate will continue the storm troopers and tanks wont make an appearance until the convention.

reply to post by xpert11

“Political strategists including those in the Republican camp will be quietly taking notes. The full extend of the after effects of Super Tuesday failing to be decisive remains to be seen although there have been predictions made in this thread. The stalemate will continue the storm troopers and tanks won’t make an appearance until the convention.”

OK, Mr X11. Storm troopers and tanks? I say not this time. First, Denver is the MILE HIGH city and that does not refer to Mary Jane or '___'. Denver is 1,637 meters - 5,400 ft - above sea level and that will reduce the oxygen level by a quickly noticeable amount. Chicago OTOH is 186 meters above sea level - 613 feet. W-DC is a mere 3 meters above sea level, about 10 feet. Laziness inspired by oxygen rich environments will be met by thin air which will AUTOMATICALLY reduce the available energy to riot or cause civil unrest. I predict a peaceful convention regardless who is nominated. All the more should it be the once fabled and unstoppable Clinton Obama ticket!

I’ve already explained elsewhere how the most likely people to riot are not so much agitated today as they were at the 1968 Chicago Convention. Don’t overlook the informative book, “1968: The Year That Rocked The World” by Mark Kurlansky, 2004.

J/O Posted.
“With the Indiana and North Carolina primaries coming on Tuesday, we should expect that any public appearances by the Democratic candidates will have some impact on the voting public. Indiana, in particular, appears to be most decisive. If Senator Clinton loses to Senator Obama - by whatever margin - we should expect a shift in Super Delegates. DNC party chair Howard Dean has been pushing for that. He may get his wish.”

Reluctantly I agree that we need to END this nightmare as quick as we can. Dems that is. I see NO gain in extending the process. Each - Clinton and Obama - has endured UPS and DOWNS. But both are “making” GOP 527 sound bites that will KILL either in the Fall. It is unbelievable! How so many really smart pols could have missed this situation in their planning. Absolutely missed it! With Rupert Murdoch in control of the electronic media, no voice of reason can be heard. (Rupert Murdoch joins J. Edgar Hoover as probably the TWO men I HATE most). A heck of a lot more than I hate Charlie Manson and Ted Bundy who pose no risk to society in general or civil liberties in particular.

reply to post by donwhite


Oh well if the Superdelegates go with Hillary which would be prediction there decision can be put down to a lack of air. Certainly the result would be felt in the air (to)night . My apologies to Phil Collins .

After all of this will the dems stick with the warped Superdelegates system ?

Cheers xpert11.

reply to post by xpert11

. . if the Superdelegates go with Hillary which would be prediction there decision can be put down to a lack of air. Certainly the result would be felt in the air (to)night. After all of this will the dems stick with the warped Superdelegates system? Cheers xpert11.

Regrettably, if you will recall, I said at the beginning of ‘07 that America is not OVER its racism. That evil side of us has co-existed in its entire history. It is our albatross. There has never been a time here when the white inhabitants of North America were not racists. As you witnessed in the PA polling, 37% of white Dems said they would not vote for a black for pres.

The superdelegates MUST weigh that ugly fact in making their decisions. That points to a Hillary and Barack ticket with Barack as No. 2. The whites will accept that. One spoonful of medicine at a time!

Yes on sticking to the proportional representation of delegates. Until this plan was adopted in the1980s, it had been the usual “winner take all” delegates. Because so many states - like our country - voted 51% to 49%, it seemed grossly out of character to be claiming democracy as your mantra but to deny a voice to the minority, regardless of how large it was. You know that in your NZ Mixed Member Proportional system.

Can you offer another plan?

reply to post by donwhite


Clearly the problem is that the Superdelegate system isnt doing what it is designed to do unless the intention is to give political junkies a good supply of drama or rather a Soap Oprah . There is no threshold(SP?) that allows the majority of candidates to get past the stage of a token bid at the nomination. Having said that the Single transferable vote system would fit into the primary's much easier then any variation of MMP . MMP would be more suitable to the actual elections .


The way to go seems to be to have two or three rounds of voting well that is my point of view off the block anyway.

Naturally there are other issues such as the media desire only to cover one or two front runners .

[edit on 4-5-2008 by xpert11]

[edit on 4-5-2008 by xpert11]

reply to post by xpert11

Clearly the problem is that the Superdelegate system isn’t doing what it is designed to do unless the intention is to give political junkies a good supply of drama or rather a Soap Oprah. There is no threshold that allows the majority of candidates to get past the stage of a token bid at the nomination.

Are you including the idea that Superdelegates - all elected officials - are expected to be politically mature, who can remove themselves from the excitement of the moment and cast a ballot free of aroused emotions but based on calm deliberations? The restraining hand of maturity! Perhaps voting against their own favorite if good judgment indicates another candidate will run better?

Having said that the Single transferable vote system would fit into the primary's much easier then any variation of MMP. MMP would be more suitable to the actual elections .

OK, so help me. In Florida we had 4 candidates on the ballot. Both Edwards and Kucinich had dropped out but not in time to get OFF the ballot. Clinton and Obama remained on the ballot but neither campaigned in Florida. Clinton, 857,000 (50%); Obama, 569,000 (33%); Edwards, 248,000 (14%); Kucinich, 9.500 (1%). Aside: John McCain in a hard fought 4 way primary polled 693,508 votes to win. www.cnn.com...

There were 211 delegates to be chosen. Based on the Dems plan Clinton would get 108, Obama 71, Edwards 30, and Kucinich, 2 votes.

Please explain how the STV system would have allotted the delegates between Clinton and Obama.

The way to go seems to be to have two or three rounds of voting well that is my point of view off the block anyway. Naturally there are other issues such as the media desire only to cover one or two front runners.

Well, inside the convention that is the system. Ballots are taken until someone has the required majority. Because of the HYPE of the media - advertising revenue is based on viewers - they want it decided BEFORE the convention convenes. Rupert Murdoch is in charge! Sweet Jesus, Save Us.

But in Chicago in 1920, Republican leaders adjourned to a room in the Blackstone Hotel, where at 2 A.M., they summoned Senator Harding for an interview and liked his answers. The next day, the Harding vote rose steadily on succeeding roll calls, and he was nominated on the 10th ballot.
query.nytimes.com...


[edit on 5/4/2008 by donwhite]

Don I will get back to you concerning STV but it may be a day or day .
Cheers xpert11.

reply to post by xpert11

Don I will get back to you concerning STV . . Cheers xpert11.

On reflection X11, I doubt you (or anyone) can do that. STV would require the voter to make 1st, 2nd and 3rd choices on the ballot. Up here it is strictly choose one from the list of candidates.

In the Florida delegate primary, the actual delegates - 211 of them - were not listed on the ballot. After the voting, each candidate would name the actual people LATER, and would name as many from his or her camp as "delegates" they had "won" in the primary. The actual delegates are chosen AFTER the voting in numbers consistent with the number of votes garnered in the primary election.

Okay, folks. Indiana and North Carolina primaries are 24 hours away. Waht are your bets? I say:

North Carolina, Obama by 6 points.

Indiana, Clinton by 3 points.

reply to post by Justin Oldham

North Carolina, Obama by 6 points.

Indiana, Clinton by 3 points.

Let me weigh in!

Clinton will carry IN by double digits!

North Carolina will be a DEAD HEAT!

As I write this, we’re one day out from the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. Senator Clinton must win Indiana to justify staying in the Democratic race. Senator Obama seems likely to win North Carolina. If he wins Indiana as well, we could be looking at the end of the Democratic contest.

There are two vital factors in play, which can influence voters in both States. The simple fact is that Barack Obama is losing the battle of perception, and Hillary Clinton has got her groobe back. Has the old Clinton Magic returned, or are we seeing something else? I think we are seeing something else, other than old school charm.

Barack Obama began his career on the national stage when he was approached by wealthy party leaders and Democratic supporters. They convinced him to leave the Illinois State Senate and run for Congress. He won election to the Senate by a wide margin. He’s a naturally positive person. “Positive” is something that you have…or…you don’t have. He’s got a lot of ideas, but he lacks the experience that allows veteran politicians to be effective chameleons and vampires.

Obama continues to make rookie mistakes because he is new to the game that is our national politics. He’s made a number of socially genuine statements that have turned out to be politically damaging. His failure to lock down the Reverend Wright controversy would be the textbook example. The media very nearly turned on him before this scandal harmed his chances for the White House. The knives are out again, and its not looking good for the boy from Illinois.

Why? Because Hillary got her groove back. It may be too little, too late, but she’s back in the zone with a message that Obama seems unsure of. He’s just not sure how to be…THAT. The honest truth is that Senator Clinton forgot a valued lesson that veteran politicians know. It’s a lesson that they often learn the hard way. She has re-learned how to associate herself with the average working person.

The absolute truth is that politicians learn how to be chameleons. It’s a skill that Obama hasn’t mastered yet. He’s recently been seen on camera holding a can of beer like it was a stinky diaper full of poo that needed to be tossed out. He’s obviously not comfortable in a blue-collar bar. Senator Clinton portrays a very different image. She’s been seen time and time again in various watering holes, knocking back the beers and down the shots. Very “working class.”

The most adroit of politicians are social vampires. They can read the mood of a crowd, and draw energy from it. The Clintons were once famous for this rare skill. Their arrogance lead them to believe that this election was a slam dunk, so they got blind-sided by the new guy. It must’ve taken one helluva a reality check to humble them. Now, they’ve back in their zone, using all of their old school skill to good effect.

It’s been said that 90% of politics is perception. Only 10% is leadership. If that’s true—and I have no reason to think it isn’t—Barack Obama had better get his own wake up call. His generalist stance on everything-everything isn’t going to work against the Clintons for too much logner. If he LOSES one or both States in tomorrow’s elections…he could be in trouble.

reply to post by donwhite


Don since STV is off topic see your inbox for my reply .
There isnt much as I can say without repeating what I or someone has as said on this thread. I have to agree that the remaining battles will be for the public perception and support in the polls rather then winning the war out right before the convention . While I wont be there in person I am and will take some satisfaction from following events from behind my keyboard .

And...the results are in. Obama wins North Carilina, 56% to 42%. Clinton wins Indiana by 51% to 49%. So, what are we seeing here? Senator Clinton has cleared her schedule for the next 24 hours. Is she going to throw in the towel? Or, does she have something else in mind?

Originally posted by Justin Oldham
Senator Clinton has cleared her schedule for the next 24 hours. Is she going to throw in the towel? Or, does she have something else in mind?

Assuming I am wrong about Hillary staying in the race for first prize the only reason she would drop out now is if she was seeking the VP spot . Hillary would have stayed in the race this long in order to sweet talk the delegates into pressuring Obama to choose her as his VP pick rather then Richardson . It may be also that Hillary wanted to show that she is still a viable candidate in 2012/16 .

Then again perhaps the most simple explanation is the most likely Hillary probably just needs to unwind for a short while .