Clinton? Obama? or Edwards? Who Will It Be?

reply to post by sy.gunson


Hmm I hadn't thought of things from that angle you certainly have made me think. IMO your points are certainly valid but one of the reasons the Primary process has a place or is workable in the US is that the President is a seperate branch of government from Congress. Although Primary's are held for governors and candidates who want to run for Congress.

To me Primary's would just extend the political process which means the amount of tax payer dollars and relevant laws are in effect is extended. Also you see more divisions amongst the voting population .

I am open to exploring the idea of having primary's in NZ why don't you start a thread on this matter in this forum or on AP or U2U if you my thoughts on this matter ?

Originally posted by xpert11
I am open to exploring the idea of having primary's in NZ why don't you start a thread on this matter in this forum or on AP or U2U if you my thoughts on this matter ?

Actually, I would think that somebody who lives in New Zealand would be ideally placed to give their own opinion on primaries in...New Zealand. You should take your own shot at this.

reply to post by xpert11

" . . in the US is that the President is a separate branch of government from Congress. Although Primary's are held for governors and candidates who want to run for Congress. To me Primary's would just extend the political process which means the amount of tax payer dollars and relevant laws are in effect is extended. Also you see more divisions amongst the voting population.

Aside: Is it not the case that in the UK upon a no confidence vote in Commons that the PM must call an election no sooner than 30 days and no later than 60 days? Over here our election process began in the late 18th century and has not changed much since then. We vote in November because it is just after the harvest and just before the winter snows. Our primaries were for the most part set for the end of August, the hottest time of the year and offered a welcome respite for hard working farmers. There is not much to do about crops after August but wait for the harvest time. Late September running into October. I like Louisiana as it is NOT an FPP state, alone of our 50 states. If a 50% +1 majority is not achieved then a run-off is held between the 2 highest vote-getters, usually in 3 weeks. End.

" . . the amount of tax payer dollars . . are in effect . . extended . . "

Please explain. Unlike the small donors - I give $6 a month to the DNC - those who give 1000s of dollars expect something in return. I have watched this over the years and I can tell you the "rate of return" is commonly in the 100s to 1 or even 1000s to 1. More if you look at Halliburton. This is not to even begin to put a value on putting the FOX in the hen house by awarding key decision making jobs to large donors with personal or corporate interests to protect. In America, I would guess that adding no bid contracts or rigged contracts, 100s of key appointments and NOT enforcing many laws that ought to be enforced, COSTS the US taxpayers $50 b. to $150 b. a year. And clear cutting of old growth trees that cannot be replaced and hence, cannot be valued in mere dollars. A heritage cut and shipped to Japan.

In 2004 each major party collected and spent about $550 million in all races held that year. There is no reason we could not dramatically shorten the time for campaigning and fund public elections 100% with public money at the same level, about $1 b. Add a quarter b. dollars to fund the "off" year congressional elections and you can see the potential for savings is REAL.

I cannot understand why all hard thinking people do not support 100% public financing of public elections.

[edit on 3/14/2008 by donwhite]

Interesting to note that the right wing media is now opening up on Barack Obama's church-going past. Specifically, his pastor. Jeremiah Wright, the pastor, is known to use Pentacostal rhetoric to communicate his harsh views. How relevant is that to a Presidential race?

[edit on 14-3-2008 by Justin Oldham]

Originally posted by Justin Oldham
How relevant is that to a Presidential race?

I do agree with that thought, and dont understand either myself how its relevant. As we could drudge up the same old song and dance with any one of those canidates.
The games being played are just another way for them to make another story to get coverage on the news. More things to keep the population thinking this is a real election.
The more stuff they spew out that makes us ask these questions, are the very things that keeps us busy from looking at the real issues.

What are those "real" issues you may ask.. Well I really am not one to say what is more important than another issue. But when I see non-sense going on in the playing ground I have to think all this mud slinging is just a tactic to keep our eyes on the mud being slung, and not the mud pools on the ground..

reply to post by Justin Oldham

Jeremiah Wright, [Obama's now retired] pastor, is known to use Pentacostal rhetoric to communicate his harsh views. How relevant is that to a Presidential race?

Not at all relevant! But this campaign has been going on for TOO long. After 20 debates, there is nothing of VALUE to learn about either candidate. So now the media - FOX and CNN especially - stoops down to McCarthy style running NON news to fill the screen with contrived controversy.

We have already witnessed - no one protested - the Huckster run Mormon Romney OUT of the campaign. Guilt by association. Slander by innuendo. Character assassination with a down-home smile!

"In Germany, they came first for the Communists, And I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a Communist;

And then they came for the trade unionists, And I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a trade unionist;

And then they came for the Jews, And I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a Jew;

And then . . . they came for me . . . And by that time there was no one left to speak up."

Pastor Martin Niemöller

[edit on 3/14/2008 by donwhite]

It's being reported today that the big Wall Street banking giant, Bear-Sterns, has rushed to Uncle Sam for an emergency bailout in the hopes of preventing a total corporate meltdown.

In my work, I predicted that the coming U.S. economic downturn would begin in 2008. I said it would start with the collapse of the major banks, and spiral downward from there. That was in 2004. Today is 2008, and here were are.

The Bush administration's foolhardy policies have resulted in an failing economy that is deteriorating faster than any could have imagined. Not even me. In recent week,s the Central Bank has pumped two hundred billion dollars in to "the system" to try and head off disasters like Bear-Sterns. Today, we see that this effort has been an absolute failure.

More banks will fail, and in the end, the damage will impact the saving and loan sector...which will...wipe out the credit market. Kiss your plastic good-bye. You won't have it for much longer. The extent of the current debt crisis is not known. The numbers are just too big. I'm not proud that I predicted this, nor am I proud that so many of the symptoms I listed turned out to be...the truth.

I made my case for all of this here on ATS in early 2006. If you backtrack, you'll also see that I mention that this economic downturn would be the ruin of the Republicans. This accelerated decline means that, barring another 9-11 style attack, the Democrats will sweep Congress and carry the White House...because...people vote with their wallets. Those billfolds will be significantly smaller in November, when we go to the polls...if we can afford the gas.

I'm not in the least bit happy about this. I think America can't do with another dose of big government. Even so, I think that's what we're going to get.

[edit on 15-3-2008 by Justin Oldham]

reply to post by Justin Oldham

It's being reported today that the big Wall Street banking giant, Bear-Sterns, has rushed to Uncle Sam for an emergency bailout in the hopes of preventing a total corporate meltdown.

I'M MAD! The GOP mantra is "Leave Me Alone!" I can do it for myself! Or to repeat that High Guru and ICON of Late 20th century Repubicanism, The one and only, Mr Ronnie Reagan, "Governent is the PROBLEM not the solution!"

But when the R&Fs get their arses hung out to dry, THEY CALL ON UNCLE SAME TO SAVE THEM!

Hypocrits!

reply to post by Justin Oldham

In my work, I predicted that the coming U.S. economic downturn would begin in 2008. I said it would start with the collapse of the major banks, and spiral downward from there. That was in 2004. Today is 2008, and here were are.

Now Mr J/O, I find that remarkable. In 50 words or less, can you tell us why you believed 1) there would be a major US downturn, and 2) why you thought it would begin in 2008?

I guess the next question is, “When did you predict a recovery?”

The Bush administration's foolhardy policies have resulted in an failing economy that is deteriorating faster than any could have imagined. Not even me. In recent weeks the Central Bank has pumped two hundred billion dollars into "the system" to try and head off disasters like Bear-Sterns. Today, we see that effort has been an absolute failure.

SOUND BANKING REGULATIONS well enforced don’t look so bad NOW, do they? We built and financed 25 million houses between 1945 and 1970 and NO mortgage meltdown. Hmm? Maybe FDR was on to something? Maybe just maybe Reagan was WRONG?

I made my case for all of this here on ATS in early 2006. If you backtrack, you'll also see that I mention that this economic downturn would be the ruin of Republicans . . Democrats will sweep Congress and carry the White House ... because ... people vote with their wallets. Those billfolds will be significantly smaller in November ... if we can afford the gas. I'm not in the least bit happy . . I think America can't do with another dose of big government. Even so, I think that's what we're going to get.

Now you know why K-Y Jelly is so popular!


Post Script.
K-Y Jelly uses glycerin and hydroxyethyl cellulose as the lubricant, with chlorhexidine gluconate, glucono delta-lactone, methylparaben and sodium hydroxide as antiseptic and preservative additives.
en.wikipedia.org...

[edit on 3/15/2008 by donwhite]

Democratic Super Delegates. Are You Throughly Flummoxed?

There are 795 (not including Michigan and Florida) total Democratic super delegates that the nominees are seeking the endorsement of. This consists of 719 regular super delegates and 76 unpledged add-ons. We will continue to add the unpledged add-ons as soon as they are named by each state. (Note: The 10 Democrats Abroad super delegates get ½ vote each, so there are actually 800 super delegates casting 795 votes).

demconwatch.blogspot.com...


[edit on 3/16/2008 by donwhite]

I've had a busy weekend. Now, let me get back to a question that Don asked a few days ago...

The price of oil is now greater $110 per barrel. Bear-Sterns, a major financial institution, has gone to the Federal government for an emergency bailout. Mortgage lenders like Countrywide have gone down in flames due to the enormity of the sub-prime lending crisis. Job creation is stagnant, and the price of everything is going up.

And yet…President Bush continue to deny that we’re in a recession. We’ve got six weeks to go before the next State election primary. It’s the first time we’ve had a chance to catch our breath in a long time. The mainstream media seems to be having a lot of slow news days. I laugh, but that means we have time to step back and think.

Senator McCain, the presumptive Republican Presidential nominee, is over in Iraq just now. It’s a good move for him. He’s acting “Presidential” while Barack and Hillary continue to fight it out. It really is quite the turn of events. If the economy were not in such bad shape, I would say that McCain had a real chance to win the Presidency. Trouble is, we’re all going to be hurting from the bad economy when we go to vote in November.

When we do go to the polls, gas will be somewhere in the range of $4 per gallon. Oil will be selling at $125 per barrel, or more. Unemployment will be up, and the dollar will be down. A lot of bankers and mortgage lenders will be out of a job, and a lot more people will be homeless. I just don’t see how a Republican wins in that climate. Shucks, man. I’m still amazed that I saw this coming four years out.

So, what do we do? Vote, and pay off your debts. Cut up your credit cards when you’ve paid them off. Get ready for ten years of hard times. It’ll take four years to dry up the all the bad credit. It’ll take four more years for the economy to stabilize. Those of you who remember the see-saw of the 1980’s will know what I mean. Job growth won’t happened again until closer to the end of that miserable decade. Your spending power won’t improve until the middle of that “cycle.” In general, I think we have ten years of ’heck’ in front of us.

reply to post by Justin Oldham

I've had a busy weekend. The price of oil is now greater $110 per barrel. Bear-Sterns, a major financial institution, has gone to the Federal government for an emergency bailout. Job creation is stagnant, and the price of everything is going up. President Bush continues to deny that we’re in a recession.

Senator McCain, the presumptive Republican Presidential nominee, is over in Iraq just now acting “Presidential” . . Trouble is, we’re going to be hurting from the bad economy when we vote in November. When we go to the polls, gas will be somewhere in the range of $4 per gallon. Oil will be selling at $125 per barrel, or more. Unemployment will be up, and the dollar will be down. A lot of bankers and mortgage lenders will be out of a job, and a lot more people will be homeless. I just don’t see how a Republican wins in that climate. Shucks, man. I’m still amazed that I saw this coming four years out.

So, what do we do? Vote, and pay off your debts. Cut up your credit cards when you’ve paid them off. Get ready for ten years of hard times. It’ll take four years to dry up the all the bad credit. It’ll take four more years for the economy to stabilize. Those of you who remember the see-saw of the 1980’s will know what I mean. Job growth won’t happened again until closer to the end of that miserable decade. Your spending power won’t improve until the middle of that “cycle.” In general, I think we have ten years of ’heck’ in front of us.

As much as I hate to say it, I do not believe this sorry state of affairs could have come about in just 8 years. Yes, I’m happy to see a GOP in the WH when the economy crashes. It reinforces the general notion that GOPs are not much in favor or measures to help the Poor. But if we are to look at it more seriously, with a genuine interest to mitigate this one and perhaps avoid the next one, we need to look deeper - i.e., further back - than just 2000.

We have next to nothing to do with the price of crude oil. I don’t know why the price is at record levels, but it got there at a time when the US consumption was going down and stocks were rising. This violates all the economic rules Adam Smith and modern Marketeers tell us govern. It is not even attributable (necessarily) to the Persian Gulf Arabs because I’m sure they take the long view and this BUMP in prices is not GOOD for either sellers or buyers.

We are constructing a new crude oil pricing paradigm. Non producers or suppliers are pushing the current OIL BOOM. Hedge funds, mutual funds, banks and financial interests with too much money for the good of 99.44% of the people. We’ll need to deal with this before we ALL work for the Certified Financial Advisers. Jeez, and I thought MBAs were from hell?

Bush43's economic policy has been a longshot gamble from the start. Since day one, he has sought to enrich his oil company cronies, while a t hte same time tinkering wit heh money supply by fudging with the interest rates. The rationale of his handlers was simple. Grow the economy faster than the price of oil could go up, and everybody would win.

Artificially lowering interest rates set off a chain of unforseen events, which culminated in the sub prime scandal and the subsequent hosuing crisis. Now, there is more bad debt than there are profits. the entire slide has taken les than a ful decade. It'll take ten years or more to come back from this.

Speaking of coming back, it now appears that Hillary Clinton has found Barack Obama's kryptonite. It seems that Mr. Sunshine isn't a very good street fighter.

It's been said that old age and treachery will always win out over youth and skill. Senator Clinton hasn't been a political genius, but she has stayed in the fight long enough to finally get some traction. As an old school street fighter, she knew that her one best shot was to play the gamber's game. She's waited, and now she's got her moment to "double down."

Obama is being hit hard from three sides. He's being hammered by the mainstream media, which has finally turned on him. He's being nipped at by the Clinton camp. He's also being punched every now and again by the Republicans, and theri surrogates. All the while, John McCain has taken a page from the Obama play book and remained above the fray.

Senator Obama is due to make a big speech tomorrow. Its his version of the Mitt Romney speech, in which Romney defended his Mormonism. Now, Obama must convince everyone that he's not a race-baiter like his former pastor.

Will he succeed? I don't think so. Romney defended the fact that he WAS a Mormon. Obama has to assert that he is NOT a race motivated hater. That's a lot harder to do than it sounds. "Explaining" is not "defending," and that's what Obama must do. Defend, rationalize, justify.

The court of public opinion has already found him to be guilty, in much the same way that voters turned theri backs on John Kerry in '04. AT that time, Kerry offended many people with his faked military background. When he was forced on to the defense, he lost big at the polls.

The Clinton strategy has turned out to be something pretty brainless. Keep throwing mud until soemthing sticks. Once it does, let the Republicans run with it. Now that it's working, we have to sit back and watch the Obama response. Can he beat this charge? Maybe, but he'll have to sell his soul to do it.

[edit on 17-3-2008 by Justin Oldham]

reply to post by Justin Oldham

Bush43's economic policy has been a longshot gamble from the start. Since day one, he has sought to enrich his oil company cronies, while at the same time tinkering with the money supply by fudging with the interest rates. The rationale was simple. Grow the economy faster than the price of oil could go up, and everybody would win.

Artificially lowering interest rates set off a chain of unforeseen events, which culminated in the sub prime scandal and the subsequent housing crisis. Now, there is more bad debt than there are profits. the entire slide has taken less than a full decade. It'll take ten years or more to come back from this.

Conspiracy! Suppose Michael Milken - he's still out there - could not resist those same temptations he fell under the spell of in the late 1970s running into the mid 1980s. Junk bonds back then. Students of finance BEFORE Milken were taught that BOND was to corporations what MORTGAGE was to home-owners. They were not called JUNK bonds at the outset. (Milken always called them 'high yield' bonds). But to make it work, Milken’s idea required a well established bond firm with an unmarred reputation. See Note 1.

The current sub-prime meltdown is essentially a rerun of the junk bond scam run the 70s and 80s. The unprecedented numbers of defaults now wrecking our economy was made possible by (over) eager home buyers who took it as a given that they were “protected” by the lender if not by the seller, from committing themselves to more than they could pay. And that feeling of exuberance was reinforced by the phenomenally sudden rise in both home demand and the fast rising prices of housing. Even if you did overpay (and over borrow), in a year or 2, you’d be even. Or so they were easily encouraged to think.

With almost NO applications turned down, almost anyone with equity in his current home was "approved" for an upgrade; and with no oversight of banks or of a new breed, mortgage lenders, the United States was setting itself up for a crash. Was the hard learned lesson of 1929 about to be repeated? What do they say about people who do not know their history? The mortgage meltdown quickly spread engulfing the LAST bank or institution to have its hands on the now defaulting mortgages. Before this singular catastrophe - it did not happen in the giant housing boom of 1945-1975 - the safety of a owner occupied home mortgage as an investment was the stuff of legends.

When the mortgages were offered to bulk buyers - many were foreigners - in “bundles” of 100s or 1000s of individual montages - they were quickly and unquestionedly snapped up! It is highly probable that many of the buyers assumed the old FHA was still insuring mortgages. Uh uh! Not since the Reagan Revolution killed that one. Socialism in Ronnie's "judgment." Destructive of American values Ronnie said.

It was once true that American owner occupied home mortgages were the creme de la creme of private debt. Not anymore. Another kick in the oft smeared reputation of Uncle Sam by home grown gangsters in white shirts and ties! The R&Fs as I call them. Hey, poor people do not buy mortgages. They do not commit bribery. They do not engage in money laundering. Those are crimes of the R&Fs. Which is why they rarely get prosecuted and more rare, get jail time. Ahh, Let us pray: God Bless America! Land of the Free and Home of the Brave!

Trust betrayed. Little did the mostly foreign buyers know the old line firms - like Bear Sterns - had shifted gears! They were now "hustling" junk mortgages as if it was proper debt. Just as Milken plied his evil traffic on the good reputations of Drexel and Burnham, so did the likes of Bear Stern trade on the hard earned reputation of the United States of America for good business practices. Both of which good names have been sullied by unregulated greed

That much chicanery spread throughout a major industry needs outside HELP! Lot's of help. Builders, realtors, appraisers, loan officers, bank managers, insurance companies, tax assessors and Boards of Directors of all kinds overseeing it all. And Federal regulators. High government officials. And in some (few) cases, the buyers. But then came the bundlers. Those who bought, bundled or assembled a package of mortgages and resold them in blocks of 1000s. Like Bear Stern.

Why did not the SEC regulators catch Milken's scam before it got so large? Or the IRS catch the tax evasion? Mostly due to the reputation of Drexel and Company. In part it was also due to the initial “success” of the scheme. Sort of like a Ponzi Scheme that pays old investors with new investors money. And see below that US Attorney Rudy Giuliani was not an enthusiastic prosecutor until he was pushed by the AG in W-DC to do his job.


Note 1. Michael Milken landed a summer job at Drexel Harriman Ripley, an old-line investment bank, in 1969. Drexel merged with Burnham and Company in 1973 to form Drexel Burnham and Company, with Milken as one of the few holdovers from the Drexel side of the merger. He persuaded his new boss, Tubby Burnham to let him start a high-yield bond trading department - an operation that soon earned a remarkable 100% return on investment!

Milken was a major contributor - the force de jur - to the success of Drexel, which went from $1.2 million in fees to over $4 billion during Milken's time there, making it the most profitable firm on Wall Street at the time. Crucial to Drexel's ventures, Milken was given huge bonuses, one year earning in excess of $500 million.

"With the benefit of hindsight, Milken's 'genius' seemed his ability to make so many believe his gospel of high return at low risk," wrote James B. Stewart in "Den of Thieves." According to Stewart, of the 104 small companies that had been involved in public issues of Milken's junk bonds, 24 percent defaulted on their debt or were bankrupt by 1990. In addition, every savings and loan that was a "major" purchaser of Milken's junk bonds was declared insolvent. Honor among thieves? Drexel lawyers discovered suspicious activity in one of the limited partnerships Milken set up to allow members of his department to make their own investments.

On March 29, 1989, at the reluctant instigation of US Attorney Rudy Giuliani, a federal grand jury indicted Milken on 98 counts of racketeering and fraud. The indictment accused Milken of an eye-popping litany of misconduct, including insider trading, stock parking and tax evasion. Giuliani’s tactics during the investigation have been much criticized. Only at the behest of Attorney General Dick Thornburgh, was Giuliani pushed to threaten to indict Milken's brother, Lowell (a lawyer for Drexel) for racketeering when Milken initially balked at pleading guilty.

On April 24, 1990, Milken pled guilty to six securities and reporting felonies in 1990. Milken agreed to pay $200 million in fines. At the same time, he agreed to a settlement with the SEC in which he disgorged $400 million.

Federal Judge Kimba Wood (a Democrat) recommended a 10-year prison sentence of which, in her opinion, Milken should have to serve at least 36 to 40 months. However, Milken hired Alan Dershowitz (of later ACLU fame) to help reduce his sentence. Milken ended serving only about 22 months (from March 1991 until January 1993) before being released. Aside: I said when Milken was sentenced “it is hard to keep a rich man in prison.” With an estimated net worth of around $2.1 billion as of 2007, he is ranked by Forbes magazine as the 458th richest person in the world.

So what is a JUNK bond? First it is a misnomer. An oxymoron. It is not a bond in the traditional sense of the word. Junk bonds are an example of deceptive nomenclature. False advertising that would work only if it was offered or endorsed by a reputable firm. Most securities buyers cannot know much about their purchases. That was the case here. The junk bond or certificate of debt fine print revealed it was often secured only by FUTURE income. The rate of interest offered by sellers of the junk bonds was very HIGH, usually 10% and sometimes more. Despite the oft repeated adage, “There is no free lunch” you can always get a lot of people to line up if that is your offer. The highest rated bonds might offer 4-5%. Another adage: "If you don't know your merchandise, you better know your merchant."

Basically then, a junk bond was a promise to pay with little or no collateral. An empty promise. Prior to Milken, bonds were secured usually by real estate and improvements. GM for example, might build a factory and issue bonds to get the needed money. Those bonds would be a FIRST mortgage or claim on that building and land. Such a bond wold be rated high, AAA+ but bonds that Milken issued either got NO rating or rated a D. But his firm’s reputation made his investors feel secure. End. From en.wikipedia.org...

[edit on 3/18/2008 by donwhite]

reply to post by donwhite


Forget about the Dems or Rep...

Vote Libertarian... Wayne Allyn Root www.rootforamerica.com...

The "change" all of these candidates are going to give us is those few coins left in our pockets after their massive tax increases.

Obama speech will be or is a sort of limps test of his candidacy . Nixon faced a similar test when it was questioned how he had paid for a fur coat . Ike was under pressure to drop Nixon form the VP ticket . Instead Ike gave Nixon a chance to dig himself out of the hole he was in .Nixon made a speech on TV while Ike sat back and watched while taking notes.

Nixon remained on the ticket having promised to release his tax return and challenged others to do so.

The question is has Obama passed the test ?

reply to post by xpert11

The question is has Obama passed the test?

Y E S! Barack Obama passed with flying colors. As you mentioned Nixon, and I also refer you to JFK and his Texas speech declaring himself free of the Papacy.

IF the PA vote was held tomorrow, he'd score big but it's not. It's April 22. Long enough for the LATENT racism in America to rear its ugly head again.

I say 30-40% of white Americans hold racist views that will go far in determining how they vote. Of those about 60% are GOP and 40% Dem. So I'm saying 18-24% of GOP voters give race much weight, and 12-16% of Dem voters do likewise. Sad but true.

[edit on 3/18/2008 by donwhite]

I am reminded of the speech that Mitt Romney had to give, to defend his Mormonism. There is no doubt in my mind tha we saw history in the making today. Obama's speech will be required reading in colleges acros the nation within two years. He said what he needed to say, and I do think he was "Presidential" in his performance.

Interesting that John Mrtha chose today of all days to make his endorsement of Hillary Clinton. Also of interest is the fact that Florida and Michigan state-level Democrat party leaders chose to throw in the towel on the matter of a re-vote.

What says the rest of you?

reply to post by RabbitChaser


Here follows the official schedule for mailing out the STIMULUS money. Using the last 2 digits of your SSN, you will receive your check by week of:

Group 1. 00 - 09, July 23

Group 2. 10 - 19, July 30

Group 3. 20 - 29, August 6

Group 4. 30 - 39, August 13

Group 5. 40 - 49, August 20

Group 6, 50 - 59, August 27

Group 7. 60 - 69, Sept. 3

Group 8. 70 - 79, Sept. 10

Group 9. 80 - 89, Sept. 17

Group 10. 90 - 99, Sept. 24