Clinton? Obama? or Edwards? Who Will It Be?

reply to post by Justin Oldham

I disagree with Obama's politics, but I will not fault him for seeking the Presidency. I don't think he is uppity. I don't think he has forgotten his place. For that matter, I DO think that America has evolved enough to elect a black man to our highest office.

J/O, over the years I’ve made some observations that are relevant to this campaign. On white prejudice against black persons. Even in the case of “Sanford and Son’s” Red Foxx, “colored” women who look mostly white and are attractive. Recall how often Foxx admired Lena Horne? In other settings, look how easy it is to talk with or about Tina Turner.

Many of the more popular “with whites” black leaders of the 1960s were those who shared many physical features with whites. Look at Julian Bond, for example. I’ve said that to say this: whites are much more tolerant of and comfortable with blacks who LOOK like themselves! A guy or gal with a suntan.

If Barack Obama had been born with a round face, very dark skin and short curly hair, I venture he would not only NOT be running for president but he would not be an Illinois senator. If he more resembled Kofi Annan than JFK, then I say he would not be capturing those gated community white votes.

I’ve already mentioned the book on Sundown Towns in America, and the author reported more than 140 in Illinois based on the 2000 census. Sure, they have taken down those cruel signs, they have stopped blowing the 6 PM whistle, but the fact is, blacks cannot more into one because they cannot get a job, they cannot make a home loan and they are basically, not welcome. Maybe those pro Obama white voters are Catholics and are doing penance? Speaking of religion, the churches of America are still almost entirely segregated along racial lines. Or yes, the MEGA churches have a few blacks; I call'em Mr Token and Mrs Quota. TWO to be exact.

Look, I know whereof I speak. I have relatives who live in Decatur GA. Houses there cost 3-4 times the Fair Market Value. Why do whites move to Decatur and pay so much for so little? Because GA has 1000s of small school districts which are purposely intended to KEEP OUT BLACKS. Decatur (Atlanta in reality) is a trick shot to keep schools segregated. I have other relatives who live in gated communities in Florida. Do I EVER see a black person in one of those? NEVER. I’m telling you, prejudice is alive and well in America.

If Obama gets the nomination, and if he picks Bill Richardson as his running mate, can he win on November 4? No way, IMO. No way.

Obama have a lot of the popular vote in the south, where Hillary is seen with distaste.

I will see a surprise in the Democrats rank with Obama unless th denomination is stolen for Hillary.

reply to post by marg6043

Obama have a lot of the popular vote in the south, where Hillary is seen with distaste. I will see a surprise in the Democrats rank with Obama unless th denomination is stolen for Hillary.

The Dems, always trying to be more democratic, adopted this current scheme of proportional assignment of delegates in the primaries based on the vote distribution. Good idea. This has the effect of reducing the weight or impact of winner take all in the larger states and tends to increase the value of winning numerous smaller states. This was meant to prevent any Dem candidate from pulling a “Giuliani” and bypassing the first to vote but smaller states and running only in the large ones. Like picking big states such as CA, TX, FL, NY, PA and a few more large states, enough to win by delegate count but not to offer each state a chance to express its opinion.

The Super Delegates are understandable. 673 I believe. All the members of the DNC - over 200 - plus each Democratic Member of Congress and each Democratic governor are S/Ds. In those states without a Democratic governor, the DNC chooses other leaders. This is the professional core of the Party. Those who have “been there, done that.” The other delegates are basically local activists. Good folk, but not pros in the business of politics.

I am in favor of a Clinton-Obama ticket. To run against what I think everyone agrees will be a McCain-Huckabee ticket. Unlike Rudy, Mitt and Ron Paul, Huck is not going to go away! Whether McCain and Huck cut a deal to squeeze out Mitt will always be a mystery. Unless they confess.

HEY! It got down to 32 deg last night here in Jax. It's 49 deg now at 11:15 AM with full sunshine.

[edit on 2/14/2008 by donwhite]

Originally posted by marg6043
Obama have a lot of the popular vote in the south, where Hillary is seen with distaste. I will see a surprise in the Democrats rank with Obama unless th denomination is stolen for Hillary.

Hello marg, it's good to see you again. Obama's momentum can be checked. He can be stopped. If Hillary really wants to win, she knows where to find me. My rates are fair. In the mean time, we should begin to lower our expectations. The Clintons are clearly not as sharp as they used to be.

And so, what if Obama selects Tom Kaine -- Gov. Virginia and x-military as his running mate? How would they stack up against McCain? Its an intriguing possibility. Like J/O I noted the Potomac wins and post speeches by McCain and Obama. Yes, both are sizing each other up and posturing as if it were the beginning of the general election. McCain is leaving some room for Hillary. But even as I supported her a mere two weeks ago -- I am feeling the pull of the Obama camp. He started talking specifics.... albeit he flubbed his discussion of a $4000 tax credit for college in exchange for public service.... it was a start. He's got a good motivational presence -- and its a stark stark difference when you see Obama tall and energetic standing aid throngs of people versus the same old pasty white guys krony-ing around McCain -- with the same old rhetoric. McCain seems to have sold out to the RNC. He has none of the appeal in my eyes that he did just 8 years ago.

Originally posted by peace82670
And so, what if Obama selects Tom Kaine -- Gov. Virginia and x-military as his running mate?

Hello peace82670. Kaine doesn't have very much exposure at the national level. As a strategist, I would have to argue that he'd be a good foil for McCain. On the otehr hand, he too is a young puppy with a short resume. Obama would have to gamble on the youth vote. He would be hope that the under 30 set was sufficiently galvanized to cancel out the backlash from the Old guys who would go Republican just 'cause they don't like the idea of kids behind the wheel.

The time to bring out Kaine is at the convention, and not a minute sooner. Don't even say his name during these primaries. Don't even go near him, or call him on the phone. If conditions at the convention will permit it, Obama could stun the world by making a VP pick like Tom Kaine.

reply to post by peace82670

. . what if Obama selects Tom Kaine - Gov. of Virginia and x-military as his running mate? I supported her [Hillary] a mere two weeks ago - I am feeling the pull of the Obama camp. He started talking specifics .... albeit he flubbed his discussion of a $4000 tax credit for college in exchange for public service .... it was a start.

A tax credit is good if y0u make enough money to pay taxes. But what is he going to do for millions of young people - disproportionately black - whose parents don’t make enough money to pay busfare to a cross-town Junior College? I venture he knows that, but he is afraid to say this because it raises the ugly head of RACE.

He's got a good motivational presence - and it’s a stark stark difference when you see Obama tall and energetic standing amid throngs of people versus the same old pasty white guys krony-ing around McCain - with the same old rhetoric. McCain seems to have sold out to the RNC. He has none of the appeal in my eyes that he did just 8 years ago.

You cannot run alone. Would you care to guesstimate with me how many people will work for each side in the Fall? I’d guess between 200,000 and 500,000. Paid help will be much fewer but even then, I’m guessing 15,000 to 50,000. And we know McCain almost ran out of money, couldn’t feed his traveling entourage breakfast at Waffle House. Now that’s broke!

McCain will have to make peace with the RNC if he means to run a credible race.

I hope that hell freezes over and ron paul becomes president. I think we have a shot.

reply to post by tac109

NEWSFLASH: Ron Paul Has "suspended" his presidential campaign to concentrate on his congressional re-election. Looks like we have all been had....AGAIN.

Edit to add: I realize the Ron Paul comment was off topic as this is a thread about the Democratic nomination, but it seemed relevant to point out to this poster that RP has "decided" to not put much energy (or our MONEY he has collected) into his Presidential campaign.


[edit on 14-2-2008 by ItsHumanNature]

Ive stated this before, but I think it needs to be said agin..
Hillary Clinton will "win" this election.

She has already been "selected". And will come out on top of the "election".

I feel a bit like doctor Evil here trying to explain "lasers" to you all..

Clinton is in all the big name groups in which those who have been put into power are members of.. It doesnt take a very wise man to come to this conclusion..

The game with Mckain, and Obama will play out, to make those of you who are already entranced with thinking this is a fair game..

Sorry to tell you this, but the game is rigged folks!

And I stand strongly by what I say here that Hillary will be the next president.. She stands for the current agenda, and is controled by those controling Bush and family..

Those of us who have made it our lives to understand this already know..
But theres many who will deny this fact!
Its fine, Im not here to tell you how to live you're life, or what to feel..
Im simply telling you how its going to be.. Like it or not its the way this country functions..

From the start of this thread, I have said that I don't think Obama can muster the momentum to go all the way. In spite of his impressive show to date, I still think it comes down to boots on the ground. Zysin is coming at this from a different angle, but essentially we are on the same page.

IMO the only thing we can be sure of is that Hillary and Bill will be wheeling and dealing in an attempted to bring the Superdelegates that look set to be the tie breaker on board. What goes on beyond closed doors is the very essence of conspiracy theory.

Cheers xpert11.

reply to post by xpert11


Do secret deals equal a conspiracy? Not exclusively, Mr X11. Recall from your history books that the Second Constitutional Convention called in 1787 to meet in Philadelphia where the First one had met, locked itself into the Independence Hall despite it being a hot summertime, and each participant took an oath NOT to keep notes or records of the proceedings. James Madison kept a diary - violating his sacred word - or we would know next to nothing of the goings on. You know I’ve warned NO politician can tell the TRUTH and ever be elected. It’s the nature of the game. But some lies are more hurtful than other lies.

reply to post by Long Lance

radicalisation is an effect, not the cause . . people who depend on the occasional burst of violence to keep the mainstream stunned will of course find substitutes for genuine, home-grown anarchist groups.

AG Gonzales told Bush 43 that the post of Commander-in-Chief included the AUTHORITY for him to determine what was or was not a threat to the survival of the United States. There is no basis in our laws for that position. Only a supremely arrogant and deeply ignorant attorney general would say such a thing, and only a dumb president would believe him.

Bushr43 was further told by AG Gonzales that his power to avert or deflect such a threat to national survival was UNLIMITED except by his own conscience. (And do either of the two of them - of 154 executions - one every 2 weeks for 6 years - have a conscience? Knowing all the time 7% of the executed men were innocent?).

Bush43 who got all he knows about history out of Classic Comics. A playboy president. A spoiled playboy president. America’s FIRST designated president. That puts the 5 Supreme Court members who did that dastardly deed on my “radicalized” list.

edit: case in point, there's a leaked police video, which clearly demonstrates that their objective is to enforce compliance, in this case driving the protesters off. may I ask, what are people supposed to do once they're living under military enforced curfew? roll over and hope for the best? that way I fear many people will die without as much as a peep.

In defense of the police - any police - when they come onto a disorderly scene they MUST take control. Immediately. The policeman on the ground is in no position to argue, debate or arm-wrestle with the rowdies. Sad as it is to say, the police must often exercise MORE force than those on whom it is being exercised. Just enough MORE force to restore order, but in the heat of the contest it is often difficult to impossible to control the amount of force employed by any one individual.

The real decision on FORCE is made by the AUTHORITY who decides what or who to send into the fray. As in Selma AL, do you send in DOGS or people? Do you bring tear gas with you or not? If National Guard, do you give them loaded weapons or does some senior person keep the bullets in HIS pocket? As was not done at Kent State. There is a right way and a wrong way to do durn near anything. Or is it everything?

[edit on 2/15/2008 by donwhite]

Originally posted by donwhite
reply to post by xpert11

 

You know I’ve warned NO politician can tell the TRUTH and ever be elected. It’s the nature of the game. But some lies are more hurtful than other lies.

How right you are sir! And please allow me to share this video with you!
I belive this is spot on to what you just said.


[edit on 15-2-2008 by zysin5]

reply to post by zysin5


Very good video. My explanation is the Perfect Storm Theory. Under normal circumstances B43 would not have won the GOP nomination. He was always a fringe candidate. Being governor of Texas is a backwater job. He has a potential criminal charge against him in the Texas Rangers sham. He has done more insider trading than Martha Stewart ever dreamed of doing. His father has gotten him out of more trouble than any one person has a right to. How do you think he got transferred from the Texas Air Guard to the Alabama Air Guard? And WHY?

Condo Rice. An affirmative action miscarriage. Dick Cheney, a closet Nazi who has succeeded in rasing the price of gasoline from the 70s cents per gallon to near $3 dollars in just 8 years. I've always called Herr Rumsfeld the Oberfuhrer. He know it all! Just ask him. John Ashcroft, his first AG, had the nude statue of Aphrodite in the lobby of the Justice building clothed! Alberto Gonzales his second AG, is an illiterate hanger-on of the law, Texas style. George Tenant admitted he was and is a wimp.

Colin Powell, the only honorable man in the 1st Administration of B43, was hoodwinked and used dishonorably in the Feb. ‘03 speech at the UN. I said then as I heard Powell speak, “B43 has taken Powell to the woodshed!” And Powell let his sense of DUTY prevail over his good judgment.

It has indeed been a bad 8 years for America and the world.

[edit on 2/15/2008 by donwhite]

How do the Democats prevent their own internal struggles from paving the way for John McCain to take power? I'm looking at this from an analytical perspectice, and I'm not considering what I myself would want. When I put on my Machievelli hat, I see a chance for McCain to outpace his opponents, jump over the dead, and leave everyone in his dust. So, what must the Dems do to prevent such a hypothetical scenario?

[edit on 15-2-2008 by Justin Oldham]

reply to post by Justin Oldham


Just keep hammering away at Bush and his failed policy's ought to do the trick. Remind people that electing a Republican could lead to more failures and such like. Keep Iraq and the war consequences at the fore front.

The one thing that unites the dems is the anti Bush and Republican sentiment.

Josh Bolton and Harriett Myers have recently been found in contempt of Congress. I'm sure that will stay on the front page of many media groups over the course of the coming week.

I thought it was interesting that McCain scored a direct hit on Obama when he recalled their pledges to run on public money, if each became the nominee of their respective parties. While it would not be in Obama's best interest to make good on that pledge, it would give McCain a stick that he couldhit back with any number of times.

Clinton will be our next president, but she will not get my vote to get there.