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Clinton? Obama? or Edwards? Who Will It Be?

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posted on Jan, 6 2008 @ 01:24 AM
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ABC and Facebook hosted a unique Republican and Democrat discussion/debate this evening. As usual, the Republicans were in total disarray. The only person who zeroed in on the voter’s concern over the national economy was Ron Paul. Several of the Democrat candidates allued to the coming recession, but none of them spoke so specifically as Mr. Paul when he outlined the problem, and its solutions.

I liked the format of this debate. It was conducted almost like a leisurely discussion that you might have in somebody’s living room. As the results from Facebook suggested, the format made it much easier to read the candidates and rate them individually. I hope that somebody holds another debate using this format. I’d like to see this kind of thing again.

For the first time, we saw Hillary get mad. She was clearly honked off when Obama and Richardson went tag team on her. There’s a rumor floating around the blogs that these two men have reached an understanding of some kind. Is it possible that Obama would promise Richardson the VP slot on his ticket? We’ll have to wait and see.

One thing is for sure. Any secret deal that Mrs. Clinton might have had with Mr. Obama is now in the dumper. “It’s on.” He took shots at her tonight like a man who was in it to win. At long last, he’s made his decision. He’s “all in,” as they say in Texas Hold ‘Em.

For his part, John “Edwards got in a few licks against Hillary, making it clear that he too is out to sink her candidacy. That’s a dangerous move. Three on one is likely to make Mrs. Clinton fight extra hard, which could mean that the reace is about to heat up much sooner than the pundits (including me) thought that it would.

This is the kind of fight that I’ve always known Hillary had in her. I still don’t want to see her get the Presidency, but there’s no Republican who can stop her. The Clintons (Mr. And Mrs.) have previously displayed a knack for the Fight Club style of campaigning. We shouldn’t be surprised at all if people start dying as Hillary’s operatives go to work.

Obama might win New Hampshire, but he’s still in for a long fight. November is a long way off, and that is no conspiracy.


[edit on 6-1-2008 by Justin Oldham]




posted on Jan, 7 2008 @ 12:31 AM
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Fox News hosted a debate for the top five Republican candidates. The forum was held this evening. Although some effort was made to gang up on Romney, all of the candidates pulled their punches. I was surprised when the moderator asked some hard questions. I was not surprised when the candidates waffled or bloviated.

The Republicans just don’t get it. They just don’t see that the economy matters more to voters than the national security issues that these men insisted on talking about. Yes, national security is important ,but we’re watching the economy go down the drain and these guys aren’t saying anything newsworthy about that fact. What planet are they on?

Fox did use the same event style that the ABC/Facebook gathering employed. I was glad to see that. It’s a very revealing presentation, and it lets the vewer get a better feel for just how honest, earnest, or genuine a candidate really is. In this case, I had the impressing that Fred Thimpson was just being himself while the others were posturing.

The abense of Ron Paul was noticeable. Romney did his best to dominate the conversation, and for the most part he was successful. I think he was trying to appear more Presidential. It didn’t work. Time and time again, he talked around an issue, rather than answering the question. The moderator asked these men to explain their attack adds, and they backed off. McCain himself was presented with a dozen chances to take Romney down a peg or two, and he didn’t do it.

The immigration issue reared its ugly head, and al of them ran for cover. I don’t know who these guys were kidding, but it certainly wasn’t me. This debate had the feel of a liar’s club meeting on Casual Friday. The honest conservative answers were there to be had, but nobody wanted to admit their moderate past…again. This proves…again…that the GOP field is too fractured to put up a candidate who can win.



posted on Jan, 7 2008 @ 01:20 AM
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Well the impression I get is that Bush supporters back up there claims that the economy is doing well by producing all sorts of facts and figures. John Howard did this when he was seeking re election. Rudd simply counted this argument by pointing out rising grocery costs. The majority of people care more about the cost of grocery's and housing then how many people Walmart employed last month or Iraq.

Once any party loses touch with the middle class they lose office.



posted on Jan, 7 2008 @ 05:36 PM
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reply to post by xpert11
 


NEW HAMPSHIRE Voting Polls OPEN AT MIDNIGHT. About 5.5 hours from now - 6:35 PM EST.

Exit polls should give an insight to the ffinal returns by 01:30 AM EST.

Don



posted on Jan, 7 2008 @ 05:53 PM
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reply to post by xpert11
 


Perhaps everyone but Barack was surprised by his “UPSET” victory in Iowa?

A “strong” 3rd place finish for my heroine was OK but surely nothing to write home about.

John Edwards message is somewhat limited. He’s against the GIANT rich corporations who mostly control the US. But hey, if you ask, you’ll find almost everyone is too. That is NOT an issue. What he would do if elected is or could be an issue. How about rolling the clock back to say, 1950. Make every conglomerate show cause why it should not be broken up into its ancestral constituents beginning around 1950. Now that would be an proposal that would raise eyebrows!

So what can Barack do with his sudden Claim to Fame? Does he think Georgia “Crackers” - redneck good old boys - are going to welcome him with open arms (and pocketbooks) into the mainstream of American politics? Does he think North Carolina Tarheels have forgotten how Jesse Helm beat Mayor Gant of Charlotte - a NC black - by using the anti-affirmative action ad? Playing the race card. Does he think Tennessee Volunteers have forgotten ‘06 when Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker beat Memphis black congressman Harold Ford by running an ad showing Ford next to a white girl at Hugh Hefner’s Playboy party?

I don’t think Barack is in the real world. I don’t think the Democrats want to give up this one GREAT opportunity to win the White House by running a political experiment in racial equality.

Which brings me to this. Barack is a good fellow. He is young. He has time in front of him. He does not have any experience dealing with the people who run this country. Hillary does. Like her or not. And as I have always said, if my throat must be cut, then I at least want a Dem to do it.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 12:13 AM
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Point of Interest

In post war Japan MacArthur tried to break up the large Zaibatsu despite MacArthur being the head of state in all but name he wasn't successful. Fortunately the rest of MacArthur reforms were successfully. So to stay on topic I don't see how Edwards would do any better. I dread to think how people would react to MacArthur role in post war Japan today.


Another false hood perturbed by Neo Cons was to compare the future of Iraq to that of post war Japan. Well this was a load of crap because the Japanese people only followed the Emperor .

Post war the Emperor was retained and played ball with MacArthur all of which lead to Japan bright future. Clearly there no such Emperor figure when it comes to Iraq and Bremer should be in a jail cell.

On another note in the US there is no equivalent of a preferred Prime Minster Poll. This where the voting public is asked which leader of a political party they would prefer as PM. Mind you with the political process spanning half the electoral cycle we probably that sort of thing all the time in preferred candidate polls .



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 12:26 AM
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Let's just keep an open mind as we watch the returns from New Hampshire. This is the first all-voting event, so it will have a different dynamic. Obama's wild ride can still end.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 01:07 AM
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After Hillary really lost it yesterday, do you really think she can handle the stress a President must face on a daily basis?

She keeps yapping about change, yet she was seated next to Bill, Albright and Wes Clark.

With trepidation, I would probably vote for the freshman only because he carries less baggage and mainly because incumbents should be sent packing.

Blacks are probably surprised to find out that White folks would actually vote for O'Harpo and this is good because it proves that the poverty pimps like Jackson and Sharpton have been wrong all along with their claims that "all White people are racists".


If Barack becomes the next Prez, you can expect Jackson and Sharpton to be out of a job, whatever their jobs may be, and this alone is good for America.

Kick the crutches



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 04:02 AM
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reply to post by xpert11
 


Point of Interest
Another false hood perturbed by Neo Cons was to compare the future of Iraq to that of post war Japan. Well this was a load of crap because the Japanese people only followed the Emperor .

Post war the Emperor was retained and played ball with MacArthur all of which lead to Japan bright future. Clearly there no such Emperor figure when it comes to Iraq and Bremer should be in a jail cell.


Bremer’s job was to grant to US oil companies - TexacoChevron - the perpetual right to access the Iraqi oil. He did that. Now the problem facing W-DC is how to keep that in the Iraqi Constitution. This is why the Iraqi government cannot reach an “ACCOMODATION.”

The Japanese surrendered on August15, 1945. The formal document signing took place on September 2, 1945, which is the usual date offered for the end of the Pacific War, or VJ Day. As soon as the surrender was announced, the US sent in about 300 men to do various jobs including the prevention of the destruction of records. Not ONE American soldier was harmed.

I visited Japan in 1954 on R&R from Korea. Rest and Recuperation. Or as the GIs said, Rape and Repatriation. I went to Tokyo, Nagoya and Mt Fuji. We wore our uniforms although civilian clothes were authorized. I was always treated royally. I recall one night in Tokyo when my hometown chum and I were walking around looking for a restaurant. The two of us cam on 6-8 young Japanese boys or men, late teens and early 20s, and we asked them for assistance. One of them finally understood us and took us “by the hand” and led us to a restaurant. Later, we realized that if those Japanese had harbored any ill will towards Americans, they could have avenged themselves at our expense and who would know?

I like Japanese. I like Koreans. I like Mexicans. And etc.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 04:32 AM
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reply to post by Justin Oldham
 


Fox did use the same event style that the ABC/Facebook gathering employed. I was glad to see that. It’s a very revealing presentation, and it lets the vewer get a better feel for just how honest, earnest, or genuine a candidate really is. In this case, I had the impressing that Fred Thimpson was just being himself while the others were posturing.


Here’s the Delegates score BEFORE the New Hampshire vote is tallied.

Clinton 169
Obama 66
Edwards 47
Richardson 19
Kucinich 1

Romney 26
Huckabee 29
Thompson 6
McCain 3
Paul 2
Giuliani 1
Hunter 1

Jan. 15, Michigan both party primary
Jan. 19, Nevada caucus for both parties, South Carolina Republicans only
Jan. 26, South Carolina Democratic primary
Jan. 29, Florida, both parties primaries

February 3, Maine caucuses
February 5. 24 states vote, but not all for both parties.

At this point, 40% of delegates will have been chosen.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 01:16 PM
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Obama continues to ride the wave. He's still long on sentiment nad short on specifics. Hillary knows that. She'd be foolish to NOT know that. Her advisory team is proably working over time, but she's not in any real danger just yet.

If I wre on her team, I'd suggest that Obama be allowed to run wild for the moment while a greater effort is made to break Edwards. Obama can be brought in to line at a later date, when he's had enough media exposure to demostrate his lack of substance.

Bear in mind that we're talking brutally honest politics here. There will be blood on the floor before this things is over with, and we all know it. Obama has few troops on the ground in many States. Whoever wins in the Democratic party will have to raise another one hundred million dollars. Hillary can. Obama can't.

McCain gets a bump out of New Hampshire today, but it won't translate in to cash. He and Huckabee are in the same boat. They have big number sand small bank accounts. It's worth noting that Ron Paul has more money than both of these men put together.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 03:25 PM
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The goal of the front runners from both party's is to have the pack exhaust as much of there resources as possible on the minor battles. Later on the front runners will use the ammo they have been saving to kill off any ground that has been gained by the chases .

If the front runners genuinely fought every contest they would be taken out piece meal by the rest of the pack.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 03:50 PM
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reply to post by Justin Oldham
 


Obama continues to ride the wave. He's still long on sentiment and short on specifics. Hillary knows that . . she's not in any real danger just yet. If I were on her team, I'd suggest that Obama be allowed to run wild for the moment while a greater effort is made to break Edwards.


This is a GOOD wave! It is a Democratic WAVE! Makes me proud to be a Dem even if it is not my candidate who is raising hope and bringing out the better side of us! We liberals love this. It's what we live for. Too bad we have to return to reality November 4.

But I agree, Mr J/O. Barack is just young enough to be naive. Going to W-DC with even a truckload of HOPE is like mistaking a piranha pool at the zoo for a goldfish bowl. Much like Iraq’s indomitable PM, al Maliki, who must smile as he buries more and more of his friends. Progress we call that over here.


Obama can be brought into line at a later date, when he's had enough media exposure to demonstrate his lack of substance. Obama has few troops on the ground in many States. Whoever wins in the Democratic party will have to raise another one hundred million dollars. Hillary can. Obama can't.


I agree. Although Oprah is listed as the female earning the most money last year - $260 million - she is too smart to give it away in a loosing cause. I doubt the high stepping rappers care who is president. There are enough high paid black athletes to reach a $100 million goal but too many are more interested in dog fighting than politics.


McCain gets a bump out of New Hampshire today, but it won't translate in to cash. He and Huckabee are in the same boat. They have big numbers and small bank accounts. It's worth noting that Ron Paul has more money than both of these men put together.


In the end, money counts despite what John McCain would have us believe. Or Mike Huckabee. Both are riding a fluke. A short one.


SpeakerofTruth posted on 7/19/2007
I personally view Obama a much more viable candidate than either Hillary or Edwards.. While it is true that there is not much to base this on, given that Obama has only been a senator for one term, I just personally don't feel comfortable with either Hillary or Edwards.


Acknowledgment
Today, Jan. 8, it sure looks to me that S/o/T is prescient! Would you share a lottery number with me? Good insight, sir.

[edit on 1/8/2008 by donwhite]



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 05:36 PM
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The donors have yet to have their say. In the days that follow the New Hamshire primary, hats will be passed in order to rack up the cash for Super Tuesday. February 5th is more than just a lot of State races all on one day. It's a test for each candidate and their ability to raise funds.

Obama has a lot of populist donors, and they've all got shallow pockets. Hillary is courting the big money, and there are still a lot of back room deals to make that Obama can't come close to matching. The deal makers can be short-circuited if and only if the voters can sustain the wave.

None of the real dirt has been thrown just yet.



posted on Jan, 8 2008 @ 08:03 PM
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I wanted to stop in briefly to record a few observations. As I write this, Hillary has a six point lead over Obama in the New Hampshire primary. What you're seeing is a superior organization bringing more people to the polls. Obama hasn't got that kind of manpower on the ground, and he can't build it at this late date. The Hillary "machine" has been under construction for four years. Obama's network, such as it is, has been up and running for a year.



posted on Jan, 9 2008 @ 12:12 AM
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It's after midnight on the East coast, and the dust has settled. Hillary wins by two percentage points. I think its fair to say that both of these candidates will take this race much more seriously in the future. Hillary's "inevitability" is in the trash, and Obama just got his first reality check. From here on out, it's all serious.

I'll stand on what I said since the day I first logged in to ATS. Hillary may not win by a wide margin, but she will be our next President. A Clinton-Obama ticket may still be in the offing, and I don't think there's a Republican in the field now who could stop it.

It's worth pointing out that many exit polls show that many voters were casting ballots to express their displeasure with the Bush43 administration. More than anything else, this election will be a referendum on the war, and Bush's failed economic policies.



posted on Jan, 9 2008 @ 12:49 AM
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I watched raw video of John Edwards post primary speech. I wanted to ask if all the blinking and eye tics are typical for him?

I was concerned there may be something going on with his health. However I have not watched him enough to know if this is normal.
Perhaps he was tired.



posted on Jan, 9 2008 @ 12:55 AM
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Edwards has no known facial ticks. I watched him, and he looked like a man who was trying to stay composed after no sleep for 30 hours. I think he was frustrated. He expected third place. I don't think he expect to be such a distant third. I'm guessing that he pulls the plug before Super Tuesday.



posted on Jan, 9 2008 @ 09:04 AM
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reply to post by Justin Oldham
 


Hillary wins by two percentage points. Hillary's "inevitability" is in the trash, and Obama just got his first reality check. From here on, it's all serious. I'll stand on what I said since the day I first logged in to ATS. Hillary may not win by a wide margin, but she will be our next President. A Clinton - Obama ticket may still be in the offing, and there's not a Republican in the field who could stop it. It's worth pointing out that exit polls show many voters were casting ballots to express their displeasure with the Bush43 administration. More than anything else, this election will be a referendum on the war, and Bush's failed economic policies.


J/O, you are so right when you say, “ . . this election will be a referendum on the war, and Bush43's failed economic policies.” It will be crucial for the Dems to keep this in front, as in the ‘92 reminder “It’s the economy stupid!”

1) Iraq War. It must be ended and quickly, but it also must be ended “responsibly.” Dems cannot be too specific what they mean by “responsibly.”

2) Immigration. We must get a handle on all the undocumented persons in the US. We must slow to a trickle or stop altogether the illegal crossing of our southern border. We cannot do that without the Mexican government’s collaborative assistance. We must establish a workable plan for “casual workers” to enter the US legally and to stay long enough to make it worthwhile. By “casual workers” I mean people who do not want to become US citizens but who want to come here from time to time to earn more than they can at home.

3) Health care. The 40-odd million uninsured persons are driving out health care costs skyward. Unable to afford either preventative medicine or routine health care, they are forced to use the Emergency Room as their physician of choice. NO ONE is going to slap down the $2 Trillion annual “TAKE” by the doctors, hospitals, pharmaceuticals, and insurance companies. Nor can the impact on costs by lawyers and law suits be overlooked. The Dems must TALK reform but NOT be specific enough the ultra rich Health Care Industry can run damming 527s against them.

4) All other problems. Balancing the budget - again. Revising tax code to make it more fair by raising taxes on the R&Fs. I’d like to see the 1993 tax code back in effect. Restaffing of our government. (Ending the Reagan Revolution but we can’t say that out loud). We need food inspections as much as we need toy inspections. We need audits of financial institutions whose misconduct can endanger all of us. But the Dems cannot be more specific than to let the voters know WE Dems Know your concerns and we are prepared to deal with them.

I’d like to see the War on Terror as it is now constituted and propagandized ENDED. But you cannot say that out loud either.



posted on Jan, 9 2008 @ 12:38 PM
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Economic issues have now come to matter more than national security. Republicans can't fight back with competent specifics just now because they'd have to turn on the Bush administration to do it. In many respects, they are straight-jacketed. It hurts me to see the party of my choice in this position, but there it is. As a commentator, I have to call it for what it is.

McCain and Huckabee are in the same boat. They have no money, and the donors won't back then unless they can continue to make the kind of appeals that have gotten them from the back of the pack to the front. To win, they'd have to be more honest and more specific than they are.

Having said all that, let's look at a new wrinkle in the calculation.

GOP tacticians now have to decide who they'd rather go up against in a general election. Obama's lack of specifics would seem to make him the ideal opponent because he can be taken down with specifics. The trouble is that if they beat him, Republicans can be labelled as the racists who took down the first viable black man. Don't think for a minute that the Dems wouldn't play that fiddle. They would.

My speculation is this. They'll actually back off on Obama and focus on Hillary so that they be seen as defeating the better candidate. Hillary's girl-factor isn't so pronounced. There is also the fact that Obama isn't like to fair that well on Super Tuesday. Even if he does, Hillary will turn on him fast enough.

Obama himself still have one choice to make. Does he want the Presidency enough to risk an all-or-nothing throw of the dice? Or, does he settle for the VP and wait his turn to be President? I say he settles for the Veep. When it comes to politics, "some" is better than "none."

There is no combination of candidates on the Republican side that can beat a Clinton-Obama ticket. If the economy was on solid footings, the GOP could beat the Dems on a national security platform. As many ATS postersh ave pointed out, the economy is not on solid ground. It's melting as we watch.



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