I think sometimes, especially in the field of intelligence, you have to rely on your "gut". Intelligence is not an exact science. You have to observe the incoming "chatter", satellite and computer data, information from sources, etc, etc. You also have to decide what is legitimate and what is disinformation put out there by al Qaida- something they've always done. The CIA, Homeland Security, FBI, NSA and all the other agencies are constantly sifting through intelligence and determining what has credibility and what doesn't. As regular citizens, we have absolutely no idea what kind of information they are privy to.

One thing that bothers me is that in one of the articles I read about Chertoff's "gut", there was yet another reference made to "chatter similar to that of the months leading up to 9/11." Since 9/11, I have heard variations of this phrase AT LEAST half a dozen times. It drives me more nuts than that color-coded terror threat key.

Anyway, back to the main point. What I'm saying is that I have no problem with our intelligence officers using their instincts. The human instinct is something that is used, often successfully, in every aspect of life... from business to war, from art to sports. Obviously I don't want the safety of this nation to depend on Chertoff's gut alone. But if he has a feeling that something may be happening this summer, then I want him to listen to the intelligence, consult with the experts, and follow his instincts to protect the American people.

I just hope that our government isn't pretty sure an attack is coming, has no clue how to stop it, and is just beginning the early stages of "covering their butts" for when it happens. As someone who lives in southern New Jersey, across the river from Philadelphia, I am pretty concerned. The fact that some of those doctors in Great Britain were supposedly trying to visa's to practice medicine in Philadelphia worries me. I have always considered Philadelphia to be a top target for al Qaida. It is the birthplace of our nation and the original capital. As far as the creation of this nation goes, Philly is second to none. Aside from that, I don't have confidence in the local officials there. I don't think they are doing enough or are prepared adequately to defend against and/or respond to a major terror attack. Philadelphia is a huge symbolic target with a large and dense population. Not to mention the oil refinery on our side of the river!

Say a prayer for me, because if Philadelphia is hit you probably won't be hearing from Rasputin13 again!

they have to have events happen.It's set up for it. Presidential apporval is so LOW. They have to do something to get us back to being patriotic. I think Los Angeles is under target. Probably bombs, definately something blowing up. Things will change, yea. The elimination of states, the implementation of the new dollar, the total suspension of the constitution, which has been suspended since the Korean war but that never gets mentioned.


The average american is detached, the things going on in the world are just another happening. These things happening are fed to us in the media like it's the norm. Bagdad is a city, with people who want to go about their everdyay lives. But that's not how it's portrayed in the media. When things blow up, what's the quote going to be? "THIS ISN'T BAGDAD? THIS ISN'T IRAQ, these things don't happen here"

Al-qaida attacks. media portrays them as rutheless Islamic Radicals. No mention of how they got in power and the history with United States and the defeating of it's enemies in that region. But we're to believe that b/c of "pattern assessment" we're supposed to watch out for things happening this summer. RIGHT. REEKS of collusion to me...

Originally posted by Rasputin13
...What I'm saying is that I have no problem with our intelligence officers using their instincts. The human instinct is something that is used, often successfully, in every aspect of life... from business to war, from art to sports. Obviously I don't want the safety of this nation to depend on Chertoff's gut alone. But if he has a feeling that something may be happening this summer, then I want him to listen to the intelligence, consult with the experts, and follow his instincts to protect the American people.

I just hope that our government isn't pretty sure an attack is coming, has no clue how to stop it, and is just beginning the early stages of "covering their butts" for when it happens. ...

My thinking, too.
Ha ha Rasputin, I was going to post my post when I noticed yours, and your name! Here's mine

Is this administration being influenced by a rascally Rasputin character?
Such mysticism! Bush looked into Putin's eyes and got a "sense of his soul". Chertoff has a "gut feeling". Former Senator Santorum predicts dire events for America.

Bah...enough of this New Age-like dribble! I just want actions done with intelligence and competence. And legally, too, I might add. I hope I'm not asking for too much

Well, after letting this sink in and looking into it as more news becomes available, I've come to a few conclusions. Assuming, for the sake of the argument, that the American government is not behind al Qaida and does not direct any terrorist attacks on its own people, I would say most certainly that Chertoff has scene a lot of intelligence about an impending attack. Since he can't show his cards for one reason or another, he is left to warn us with his "gut feeling" stuff. Now, if we are to accept all of that, then we have to figure out his motive. Is he only saying this to cover the administration's butt in case an attack happens? Or is he actually trying to warn the public in the hopes that we'll be vigilant and possibly thwart or limit the success of any attacks? Or, is it completely for political reasons in an attempt to get the nation's mind off the failures in Iraq and perhaps boost the President's approval numbers? On the other side of the coin, perhaps our government has vague warnings of an attack that they feel are credible. Perhaps these comments are being made in an attempt to scare al Qaida into cancelling or postponing any major attack. We have seen before that al Qaida is extremely patient- far more patient than our government and most of our citizens. They like to have all their bases covered and take as little chance as possible. If they think something is up and that the government is on to them, they may be inclined to abort any attack, at least on a temporary basis.

Now, call me "good-hearted", "naive", "foolish", whatever... but I just can't find it in myself to believe that this administration or this government has or will direct terrorist attacks upon its own people. But, for the sake of discussion, lets assume that they were behind 9/11 and that they are planning to launch another major terrorist attack this summer. In that case, what is Chertoff's motive? If we are attacked, would you place less blame on our government if they warned us in some way prior to the attacks? Could that be their motive here? Are they just beginning a series of warnings leading up to this impending attack? I think that for some, just warning us of an attack but not actually stopping it, would be better than having us completely blind-sided without warning.

When I think of how relatively easy it would be for al Qaida to committ small attacks here in the US, such as car bombings, mall shootings, etc. it worries me that they haven't really attempted any. It makes me think that they have something major up their sleeve and are setting us up for a knockout punch rather than a series of jabs. I am genuinly concerned about an attack in the next few months. I am also concerned about this country and this government's lack of resolve with regards to the Iraq war. The debate about pulling out is exactly what Al Qaida had hoped for, and had expected ever since we ran out of Somalia with our tails between our legs. The American people don't seem to understand that groups like Al Qaida think of things in far longer terms than we do. We expect instant results in all aspects of life. Our enemies are working on a 100 or 1000 year plan, while we are operating month to month. They are looking long term while we are looking short term. I don't want to turn this thread into an Iraq war debate, I just think its all related. With American resolve at an all-time low with regards to the Iraq war and the War on Terror, now just may be the perfect time for them to launch a major attack on American soil.

I think that if we are attacked we must not be distracted with insane conspiracy theories of government involvement. We must stand together united and not allow ourselves to be "terrorized". I think our enemies have grossly underestimated our resolve, just as they did prior to WWII. 9/11 only nudged the sleeping giant... but another major attack will knock the sleeping giant off its hammock!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but anyone supposedly in charge of their country's national security should warn of terror attacks on the basis of hard concrete evidence, not on the basis of scare tactics to cower the population, or because of a 'gut feeling'.


Chertoff is warning of a terror attack because of a 'gut feeling'.


Not evidence or intelligence.


But a funny feeling he has in his tummy.


He should not be allowed to get away with such an absurd comment.


Imagine in a police station.


Two policemen are in a interview room with a murder suspect.



Detective to second Detective: What makes you think this man is a terrorist?

Second Detective: Well Jim, it's just a gut feeling.

First Detective: Satisfies me. Charge him.

Second Detective: What about evidence?

First Detective: Jim, we don't need evidence, you had a gut feeling, remember?

I was totally unaware he had a gut. Or a spine.

Look at him

[edit on 12-7-2007 by dgtempe]

I think its foolish to assume that there is no "evidence" or intelligence that is causing this gut feeling of his. Obviously, there's a load of intelligence and supposed evidence that comes through our government on a daily basis. I'm willing to bet that if any of us saw or heard the things that our government does every day, we wouldn't get a minute of sleep. It would be completely inappropriate for officials to come on television everyday and list every piece of intelligence or every generic threat they've received. There's a million reasons why they have to keep a lot of things confidential- especially if they cannot be verified in any way and there is no credibility to them. Releasing intelligence that ultimately blows the cover of a covert agent or a reliable source and turns out to have been planted or just untrue would not be worth doing.

Anyway, it's our government's job to analyze all of the information and intelligence they receive on a daily basis. Most of the time, it's not a scientific process. They have to rely on instincts and their "gut". I think it's foolish to act as though Chertoff had some bad Chinese takeout and now has a gut feeling that a major attack is coming this summer. Obviously, his gut feeling comes from the things he has seen and heard recently. It comes from connecting dots.

It's not as though he held a major press conference and announced that the government was raising the threat level because he has a bad feeling that something is going to happen. He just mentioned what he felt in an interview. It's no different than someone like Dick Cheney saying that "it's only a matter of 'if', not 'when', a terrorist group detonated a nuclear device on US soil" or something to that effect. Obviously he hasn't drawn that conclusion from a single piece of reliable intelligence. It's just his personal belief- his instinct. And I don't think there's anything wrong with our government officials sharing their personal beliefs or instincts, based on their knowledge of the subject, to the American people. If our President, VP, head of Homeland Security, etc. feels that something could happen then I praise them for having the courage to say so without there being conrete proof or evidence of something happening. It's the kind of frank discussion and openness that was missing prior to 9/11. We live in a different world now. And it's not like Chertoff's statement has people running and screaming in the streets or anything.

Now, if he made this statement because he is certain that something big is coming and he is covering the government's butt ahead of time, then that's an entirely different story.