July 2007 IEA Report - It's not a peak, it's a plateau

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) mid-year report is out and things don't look all rosy and cheery. While OPEC is having limited production increase, the rest of the world is stuck or in a decline. At first glance things look to be on the up-and-up. The report starts off with a look into the worlds ever-growing demand for oil. That's all nice, but who will keep this growing demand satisfied? When you get to page 28 of the report you run into a problem. By page 30, the spin on the news is in full swing.

The concept of peak oil production and its timing are emotive subjects which raise intense debate. Much rests on the definition of which segment of global oil production is deemed to be at or approaching peak. Certainly our forecast suggests that the non-OPEC, conventional crude component of global production appears, for now, to have reached an effective plateau, rather than a peak....

Peak, plateau, tomata, tomato. It's all window dressing and side-speak for the same thing. When pressed on the issue the report attempts to shift the blame to production issues.

as incremental non-OPEC supply becomes increasingly concentrated in technologically challenging areas, so cost over-runs and delays will remain part of the industrial landscape."

Basically the cheap easy oil is gone and while we have lots and lots left, it's not near as easy to get to. Whatever you do don't say peak oil. That will scare people. It's an oil plateau. That sounds much more peaceful and calming.