why the suburbs may be the most dangerous place

how many people in chicago know about farming he asks. what about alll the people who grow fresh veggies in window boxes all the people who have rooftop gardens in pots you would be very suprised.

reply to post by dr_strangecraft


I always learn something from you posts. This one has me rethinking my neighborhood and my neighbors!

This thread along with yours on real Survival Tactics really has opened my eyes. I always thought of survival in a narrow way focusing on my immediate family and what resources and skills we have...now I find I have to also worry about everybody else and their dogs too!

reply to post by kosmicjack


I've spent a lot of time thinking about survivalism. I also work with securities markets, and have spent a lot of time trying to forecast the "next big crash." My love of history has led me to read up on historical crises, with an eye to how people have survived.

I think war and plague are probably the two biggest threats to your life, with famine coming in a distant third if you live in the developed world.

The surprising thing history teaches is how resilient humans are; how quickly they can change their individual behaviors, and even "cultural norms" to adapt. And that's where the hope is.

There are always people who simply refuse to adapt, but they are the minority. Sure, some stockbrokers will jump out of a window before they admit to being homeless. But most people are not brokers.

A lot more people will rely on social networks that didn't seem to matter before a crisis hits. Suddenly, in a disaster, the people you turn to are coworkers and community volunteers.

Churches, fraternities, and library associations will matter a lot more when they are the only "authority" left. This is what happened during the middle ages: The military and courts were swept away, leaving only the church. The church was the sole repository of western civilization. It's why all medical prescriptions were written in Latin until about 25 years ago. It's why Latin is still the language of Law and the natural sciences.

Who knows what it will be next time. Maybe the church, maybe your local library. Maybe the fire department. But people always invoke trade or social relationships when they get desperate.

look for them to "revert to the old ways," when TSHTF.

You are so right. There is a theory that our acquaintances can benefit us more than our friends or family - simply because we exist in the same circle as our family and friends and have access to mostly the same information. But our acquaintances operate in different spheres of information and we can learn something new and useful from them.

Applying this theory on topic to the thread - I need to move to a better neighborhood in the burbs, with smarter and more useful people! Or better yet un-ass the area altogether!

Originally posted by crgintx
Almost every item in the average modern house can be reused or recycled . Scrounging through the wreckage of the 'burbs will probably be a very lucrative occupation.

Absolutely! And those who have even a basic aptitude for electo-mechanical tinkering will be able to set up a Heath Robinson recycling workshop.

In addition to learning basic bushcraft, an evening-class course at the local tech-college in mechanics or electrics would be an invaluable addition to your skills-base to make use of all those available materials.

Sanitation will become a big issue. Alot of diseases and microbes are passed along via the eating of faeces. Most dogs have worms, as the worms will be in their muscles worming your dog will just get rid of the worms in there digestive system stopping them from passing the worms out in their stool (diahorrea/faeces). Once the dogs stopped getting wormed they will start developing worms in there digestive system again.

Dogs and many other animals eat faeces. There will be alot of dogs everywhere in the burbs and alot of people/animals going to the toilet on open ground. Animals will eat that faeces consuming the eggs. Animals will eat the eggs that are in the grass days later after the faeces has deteriorated, the eggs are very resiliant. The eggs will then develop into worms in the animal. You might touch some place a dog has rubbed its ass over or passed some stool and then touch your face or food with this stuff thus consuming the eggs. People will kill infected rodents, dogs etc for food and if not thorougly cooked the eggs in the meat will develop into worms. If an animal looks sickly or poorly as many of these animals would don't kill it unless you are absolutely starving. Many species of worms that reside in animals are not common to humans so instead of finding certain areas in the body like the intestines to grow and develop they will go to your brain which equals bad news for you. Right now if you get ring worm or some other worm common to humans you will get sick lose weight but because you have thorough nutrition you can cope easily. In a sit x environment you will be malnutritioned and when you have to fight with a worm inside you for nutrition this can often tip the balance between life and death as it does for many people in many 3rd world nations.

So the ground will become contaminated with these eggs meaning that your children can become infected by them as they play in the dirt touch there faces and food with there hands. Then it will rain and the eggs will wash away into water supplies like rivers, streams, ponds ect. People will crap in those rivers and streams aswell. Desperate people will drink that water without boiling it getting sick through that means.

Theres all sorts of microorganisms that are in water and food i.e. TB salmonella, e.coli etc.... Wash your with hot water and soap (if you can) before preparing a meal and eating. The soap cuts the grease where all the microbes are staying and the water washes them away. Cook all your food thoroughly before eating try to avoid foods like minced meat. Dont chop your uncooked meat up that will expose the parts of the meat to microbes in the air that the animals natural defenses had kept it safe from. If you can, salt and sear the outside of the meat. Boil all your water before drinking, getting it above 60 degrees should destroy most of the microorganism in the water. Distilling your water is no good because it is hypertonic to your cells meaning it will cause your cells through osmotic pressure to suck in lots more water than usual causing them to expand and lyse (Burst) drinking salt water is equally bad it will cause your cells to go turgid (become really small) as the water is sucked out of them. Storing food and water below 5 degrees should slow down the multiplication of many microbes (although this isnt really feasible during a sit x).

People will get messed up from disease via eating poorly prepared food not washing there hands and drinking unclean water so fast you wont know whats going on. I know this sounds weird but soft drinks especially canned soft drinks will be one of the safest options for fluids. They dont provide an inhabitable environment for microorganism due to high CO2 content and low O2 content.

1. Boil Your Water - get it alteast over 60 degrees before drinking.

2. WASH YOUR HANDS.

3. Cook your food thoroughly.

4. Kill and eat healthy animals.

reply to post by blahdiblah


One of the issues I'm studying is the use of PET bottles to sterilize drinking water. I've done some reading on the web, but haven't found anything I'd trust. I'll be experimenting on in the back yard . . . time to get out my microscope.

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Sorry for posting that long assed rant i get a bit carried away. Im just worried people arnt paying attention to preventing disease by following good hygiene and food practices. Alot of these threads are about "what gun i need" etc which is cool but protecting yourself from microbial disease is just as important. Be safe boil your water cook your food i cant stress it enough. Disease will be rampant in the suburbs a couple of weeks into sit X. People take for granted all the preservatives and additives put in our food so that it increases its longevity and inhibits the growth of disease causing microorganisms.

Originally posted by blahdiblah
Alot of these threads are about "what gun i need" etc which is cool but protecting yourself from microbial disease is just as important.

You'd be far more likely to die from a microbial infection than a gunshot too

Originally posted by DeusEx
Gadgetry sure is nice, I'll tell you. Let me put it other terms: the Celts and Druids and all that tended to be self-sufficient, or close to it. we haven't been like that in the west for at least a century. It's probably been quite a bit longer. The fact is that even if we go back to pastoral lifestyles, a lot of land has been paved over, and that's primo territory. Fresh water and land are in short supply, and only our beloved fossil fuels ensure we have so much food. Even then, it's the only reason it can be transported to people's mouthes.

The Romans has law and order, sanitation, and they had fertile land and water. Why did they consider themselves better? They had more and better food, more and cleaner water, and education. The Gauls were doing okay, but they wouldn't have reached the pinnacles of engineering, math, and literature that the Romans did.

Another point: How many people in downtown Chicago do you think can farm?

DE

Good point about being paved over. Though we can still carry our knowledge about hydroponics and put them into play. Maybe all the smokers will become useful after all.

I think society will break down that only those who can contribute can stay. While everyone may not know how to farm, at least one person will. One person will be a knitter from a hobby, another a hunter, etc. Then those skills can be passed around.

Originally posted by blahdiblah
Sorry for posting that long assed rant i get a bit carried away. Im just worried people arnt paying attention to preventing disease by following good hygiene and food practices. Alot of these threads are about "what gun i need" etc which is cool but protecting yourself from microbial disease is just as important. Be safe boil your water cook your food

i cant stress it enough. Disease will be rampant in the suburbs a couple of weeks into sit X. People take for granted all the preservatives and additives put in our food so that it increases its longevity and inhibits the growth of disease causing microorganisms.

Unfortunately, boiling doesn't necessarily kill everything. If sewage gets into the supply, or a dead animal, boiling doesn't help.
Distillation would be a more important skill to have. Then you have pure water.

That is why I mentioned that a tradeable item may be soap. We won't forget that we are here where we are because of sanitation. Most people don't know how to make soap. So it might become a big commodity. Especially for the wounded.

Originally posted by nixie_nox


Unfortunately, boiling doesn't necessarily kill everything. If sewage gets into the supply, or a dead animal, boiling doesn't help.
Distillation would be a more important skill to have. Then you have pure water.

That is why I mentioned that a tradeable item may be soap. We won't forget that we are here where we are because of sanitation. Most people don't know how to make soap. So it might become a big commodity. Especially for the wounded.

Soap would be a huge commodity same with salt.

Ummm with the boiling i wasnt suggesting scooping up some crap riddle, dead animal riddle water i mean rain water you had collected. Boiling water will kill most baddies yes, it might not kill spores or prions but meh you need to autoclave at 121degrees or something for 1hour 16 mins so yeah your not gunna be doing that. Trust me boiling rain water is the way to go im doing my 3rd unit of microbiology im pro at this shiz. Theres a reason you dont drink your distilled water thats in your car:

wiki
The lack of naturally-occurring minerals in distilled water has raised some concerns. The Journal of General Internal Medicine[1] published a study on the mineral contents of different waters available in the US. The study concluded, "drinking water sources available to North Americans may contain high levels of Calcium, Magnesium, and Sodium and may provide clinically important portions of the recommended dietary intake of these minerals," and further encouraged individuals to "check the mineral content of their drinking water, whether tap or bottled, and choose water most appropriate for their needs." Since distilled water is devoid of minerals, supplemental mineral intake through diet is needed to maintain proper health.

It is often observed that consumption of "hard" water, or water that has some minerals, is associated with beneficial cardiovascular effects. As noted in the American Journal of Epidemiology, consumption of hard drinking water is negatively correlated with atherosclerotic heart disease.[2] Since distilled water is free of minerals, it will not have these potential benefits.

So anyways if you find some rain water that looks nice and clean boil it anyways so that u dont get all the nasty bugs out of it. Yes distillation is a good skill to have in areas of low rainfall but its not very clever distilling rain water, since your depriving yourself of those nice minerals that comes in rain water.

This is probably not very practical but UV kills pretty much all bugs thats why in the surgery when they turn the lights of the UV lights come on., thats why you get sun burnt. UV light can only penetrate a couple of milimetres though. So anyways you could have some sort of duel rain water tank system going right. One tank has rain water in it and then run this sort of trickle bridge into the next tank so that the water running across the bridge is only a couple of cm in thickness. Over the trickle bridge shine a UV light hook this up to a solar panel with a battery. Walah you have a free purification system, 1 tank is rain water the other is purified rain water. No need to waste fuel for burning water.

So anyways trust me if you can collect rain water boil it don't distill. If you live an arid region or arid/seaside region by all means use a solar distillation kit but remember that water wont have any of the helpful minerals that would probably be in short supply in your nutrition in a post sit x world.

and ive written another novel again

^
What about using a gravity fed ceramic filter like the Berkey/Doulton? I collect rainwater and put it through a Berkey for my drinking water. Short term solution, I know, but with extra filters you could have a couple of years worth of clean water.

The biggest worry about the suburbs that I haven’t heard mentioned yet is that they’ll be the first target of the urban gangs. Don’t forget that we’ve got folks in every inner city who’ve been supported by the gov. for generations, and that likely have nothing put back for their own survival. They do have guns however, and will no doubt be willing to use them when hungry. I foresee a battle for the suburbs between armed homeowners and these gangs.

Originally posted by resistor


The biggest worry about the suburbs that I haven’t heard mentioned yet is that they’ll be the first target of the urban gangs. Don’t forget that we’ve got folks in every inner city who’ve been supported by the gov. for generations, and that likely have nothing put back for their own survival. They do have guns however, and will no doubt be willing to use them when hungry. I foresee a battle for the suburbs between armed homeowners and these gangs.

Certainly a valid question in my view. On the other hand, in the 1992 riots in LA, urban gun-toting gangs only made a brief foray into surrounding working-class neighborhoods. They weren't deterred by the police, who'd "fallen back" to the defensible line of the freeway; instead, it was the numerous cul-de-sacs, where groups of homeowners had created barricades of vehicles.

While no shots were exchanged, the gang-members later told police they withdrew because the homeowners brandished SKS and AK47s in sufficient numbers to cause the gangsters to drive on. Because no shots were fired, the LAPD didn't file charges. But they did mail out circulars afterward, noting california and LA laws regarding such weapons.

While the gangs would be a serious issue, I've seen statistics that gun possession rates are higher in the burbs than in the urban inner cities.

Certainly, it's all speculation, and I'm sure it would vary with regions of the country, and the group spirit of any given neighborhood.

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reply to post by resistor


After replying to your post once, I had a further thought.

The sheer amount of food needed by cities will VERY QUICKLY empty them out, even the 'burbs.

Suppose the average person needs around 10 lb. of food per day to maintain themselves. I figure that probably includes packaging as well, when averaged out across a truckload. Figure a net weight around ~50,000 lb., and a semi might haul, say, food for 5,000 people for a day.

If those numbers are even in the right ball park (and they might be off by orders od magnitude), you're looking at 20 trucks for every 100,000 people, or 200 trucks for every million in population, per day.

So, the Dallas-Fort Worth area would need 600 trucks per day. Think of all that diesel. All that maintenance. All those forklifts to unload. All those operators, distributers, etc.

And how much of the US diet is processed food? Look in the grocery, at the space taken up by the staples: flour, milk, eggs, salt, and sugar. In most stores, it's less than a tenth of the total floorspace. And those are things that don't need factories full of workers to process for sale. In theory, you could sell milk locally, and start "decentralizing" it's production. But you cannot de-centralize a can of soup, or a microwaveable dinner---you need factories to make those things as they exist today.

Now, the free-market system is so resilient that even with a huge shock (like say, $8 gasoline), the food production/distribution system will bounce back and adapt to the new state fairly quickly. Even so, the population will also respond, by spiraling down below the threshold of 200 people per square mile. That either means emigration, war, famine or plague.

So, I'd have to say that there won't be enough food to support the suburbs in anything like their current state, if there is any severe shock at all to the current system.

Back in world war II, the US kept it's cities going with "victory gardens." This made up for the gas rationing, that limited the greens you could get at the grocery. On the other hand, suburbs as subdivisions didn't even exist yet.

Even with victory gardens, I bet things would be below 200 ppl/mile within a year, 2 years at most.


Thanks for making me think, folks.

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The only factor that I can see that you left out is the second biggest after survival: greed or profit motive. There will be an urban collapse but it wouldn't surprise me if it takes 10-15 years to happen. Small closely spaced villages will spring up every 2-3 miles along transportation routes. Don be surprised to see some form of light rail networks develop link them either. Diesel trucks are currently limited to usually tandem trailers but at lower speeds of say under 35-40 mph, a single tractor can pull many more trailers using the same amount of fuel. A 300-500 hp diesel engine driving a generator to power electric motors could easily pull several hundred tons at low speed under 25 mph for 1000 miles or more using the same amount of fuel. Remember basic physics: F=M x Velocity squared. When you reduce velocity from 70mph to 35 mph, the amount of mass you can move is quadrupled for a given energy expended. Our current pace of moving things will slow down but I seriously doubt that the current infrasturture will stop completely. We squander energy at an alarming rate and if we used our brains to figure out how to use our resources more efficiently instead of how to better to steal from and kill each other we wouldn't be in near the predicament that we're in now.

Originally posted by crgintx
. . . if we used our brains to figure out how to use our resources more efficiently instead of how to better to steal from and kill each other we wouldn't be in near the predicament that we're in now.

We wouldn't be mammals, either. We'd be angels.


Or robots.


To quote one of America's founding philosophers, "the two natural virtues are force and fraud."

reply to post by dr_strangecraft


Good points and food for thought. I agree that any battle for the ‘burbs would be short lived and over immediate resources only. I can also see a migration into the countryside by the suburbians, who are educated and may have at least some hope of eking out a living there. On the other hand, if the inner city onslaught has been weathered, and you’ve got an acre or better to work with, why not try to make it where you’re at? The minor variables are so hard to predict, we can only prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Originally posted by resistor
. . . On the other hand, if the inner city onslaught has been weathered, and you’ve got an acre or better to work with, why not try to make it where you’re at? . . .

Well, I agree with that. We've structured our home with that in mind. We are away from the big city, so that isn't as much of an issue.

And you don't have to have an acre of land, either. Most of your ancestors had access to a lot less, and they managed to survive and procreate. Plus, you've got books, and a lot of fertilizer, prepared land, even irrigation pipes already in place in many cases.

One of the themes you'll see in my posts in this forum is that most people focus on the macho side of survival, without paying much attentiton to sufficiency, which would be the focus of most of your thoughts long-term.

Most of the survivor shows are based on the premise of surviving in the wilderness. But unless you are in an airplane when a global EMP is detonated . . . you'll probably be in the 'burbs when the lights go out. Unlike the wilderness survivor, you won't need to manufacture your own basic utensils. You can find all kinds of tools lying around our culture, even in a crisis.


Yeah, that's it----my new reality show: "Survival in the Burbs"


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