Iran in crisis after cleric's murder

Iran in crisis after cleric's murder

www.theaustralian.news.com.au

The murder on June 24 of Hesham Saymary in Ahvaz, the centre of Iran's oil-producing province in the south, was a blow to a regime that is already under pressure because of international condemnation of its nuclear program and the prospect of economic meltdown.

The assassination, the third of a senior cleric this year, bore the hallmarks of a well-planned murder. According to witnesses, the gunmen waited outside Saymary's house for him to arrive home about 10pm.

(visit the link for the full news article)


Related News Links:
www.washingtonpost.com
news.mo nstersandcritics.com

Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
Iran Cracks Down on Dissent, Parading Examples
Chaos as Iran Starts Fuel Rations

[edit on 1-7-2007 by UM_Gazz]

If you take the time to read the article it talks about how discontent is growing in Iran. With the new gasoline rationing when they have one of the largest oil reserves. They half to import forth percent of the gasoline because they do not have the refining capacity. Can not seem to draw enough foreign investment. Sanctions over there nuke program. All of this is leading up to will the president be able to stay in office?

www.theaustralian.news.com.au
(visit the link for the full news article)

Read it RedGolem, great OP thread. Perhap's though I felt and still feel he's been and is the hardliners international spokesmen, he may just be the exit scapegoat too?

Beady-eyed negatory Iranian President may have his hands full just remaining in office when their masses are breaking down the doors re the cost of of being negligence toward the International Atomic Energy watchdog. Time will tell.

EDIT: Perhap's finally, the citizen heat heating up above his control?

Dallas

[edit on 1-7-2007 by Dallas]

Going a bit far to claim the Government is in crisis, isn't it?

After all, who exactly is Hesham Saymary? Is he a reformist or one of the hardliners? You have to know who he is and what he stood for before making such assumptions about the wider political climate in Iran. Maybe the hardliners are bumping off reformists, in which case that would indicate a regime strengthening itself, rather than one in crisis.

Tried to find some info on Hesham Saymary in a quick search but there is nothing of note.

For the Government to fall in Iran, you need to get rid of the Revolutionary Guard. Not easily done, no matter how many clerics get killed.

Dallas,
well his is definitely an international spokesmen. He seems good at that to me. But the exit scape goat? That is something I had not thought of. I don't think he would knowingly take the job if he knew he were to be the scape goat.
If this should lead to another revolution in Iran I do greatly fear what could happen in the country.

Just found out he is an ethnic Arab and lives in an area with known Arab separatist groups. Maybe he was bumped off by them because he was seen as a collaborator? Again, not a sign of a regime in crisis.

Originally posted by stumason
Going a bit far to claim the Government is in crisis, isn't it?

Stumason,
You are right I really have no way know know how close the government is to crisis. I just took what I had read in the article. It was a combination of discontent with people protesting that the article said would not usually protest. Also the cleric murdered was part of the sect that is linked to Bin Laden. Just all factors that I took out of the news source that was linked.

RedGolem,
I really don't know alot about Iranian internal affairs. But from your reference material I'd suggest Iranians are seriously angered.
Also think Iranian anarchy are a wee-bit more subjective to their citizens likes/dislikes unlike perhaps Iraq pre 2001?

Dallas

Originally posted by RedGolem
Stumason,
You are right I really have no way know know how close the government is to crisis. I just took what I had read in the article. It was a combination of discontent with people protesting that the article said would not usually protest. Also the cleric murdered was part of the sect that is linked to Bin Laden. Just all factors that I took out of the news source that was linked.

Sorry, I wasn't targeting you with the criticism, but rather the article itself.

If it is true he is linked to Wahabbism, it may well be the Regime itself knocking him off. They do not get on so well with Wahabbis (sp?), what with being Shia and all.

Originally posted by Dallas

I really don't know alot about Iranian internal affairs. But from your reference material I'd suggest Iranians are seriously angered.


Dallas

Internally, Iranians are far more angered by the fuel rationing than any external issues. They have the same gripes with their government as we do with our ours, at the end of the day. On a mass scale, Iranian's internally seem fairly content, with a few big issues which dominate.

If they become to unhappy, the clerics would just call an election. They are, in many ways, still a democracy. Their clerics vet candidates, both hardliners and reformists get barred, so it may seem a little authoritarian from the outside.

But how is that so different than the US, candidates are vetted by internal party selection and you only have 2 too choose from in the end

Essentially, there is little difference, politically. The differences are cultural. What you see as "oppression" or "human rights abuses" are culturally what goes on in that part of the world.

In the end, they voted for the hardliner government, so they have to deal with any consequences.

If they wanted reforms, they should have voted for the reformists, of which there where plenty in the last election.

Western foreign policy influenced the last election and the people voted in a perceived hardline President. We reap what we sow too.

The funniest thing is that most of americans consider iranians as ``brown people deserving to be nuked`` and yet THEY are less cowards than most americans, they protest and are very angry at their government which is less worse than what the US government is and will be when full power is unleashed.

I hope iranians overthrow their corrupt and dictatorship regime and put a democracy like they had back in 53 before the US overthrow Mossadeq to put the Shah.

Hi there stumason,
American politics is a different matter. I would rather not get into Pres Bush Jn.
There is sensitivity about the Man with some of our American friends.
But that he's already avoided Impeachment proceedings since a majority change in both the US Senate and Congressional houses in Dec 2006, well Mr Bush is still doing wonders. Cheney -- who knows for now?

Dallas

I agree with the notion that across the world people from other countries are more passionate about there politics as far as action is concerned. In the US all people do is TALK about it and then when you start talking about it the conversation goes off to "two things you cant talk about, Politics and Religion". This is absurd to me as if we dont talk about important issues as they relate to Politics and Religion than nothing ever gets done. Instead, we talk about Paris Hilton or whatever is the main bogus story in the news.

Originally posted by Vitchilo

I hope iranians overthrow their corrupt and dictatorship regime and put a democracy like they had back in 53 before the US overthrow Mossadeq to put the Shah.

Vitchilo,
I got to say if I was forced to take a side, I agree with what you said hear. That sounds like a good out come to me also. If the current government should fall.

My understanding of wahhabi is that they are historically the "enemy" of sunni rather than shia.

or Wahabi (wähä´b) (KEY) , reform movement in Islam, originating in Arabia. It was founded by Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahab (c.1703–1791), who taught that all accretions to Islam after the 3d cent. of the Muslim era—i.e., after c.950—were spurious and must be expunged. This view, involving essentially a purification of the Sunni sect, regarded the veneration of saints, ostentation in worship, and luxurious living as the chief evils.
www.bartleby.com...

If this is indeed the case, then perhaps the shia would "welcome" them rather than want them expunged.
media.npr.org...

The map shows Iran is mostly shia - although a minority of sunni are there too

Originally posted by stumason
If they become to unhappy, the clerics would just call an election. They are, in many ways, still a democracy. Their clerics vet candidates, both hardliners and reformists get barred, so it may seem a little authoritarian from the outside.

Let's be real here. In Iran, the Guardian Council decides who you get to vote for. Out of over a thousand candidates, the Guardian Councl disqualified all but 8 of them.

Those 8 were all present or former government officials.

All women were disqualified.

Candidates who disagreed with the current leadership were disqualified.

Even candidates who fulfilled all of the "qualifications" were disqualified at the whim of the Guardian Council.

Oh yeah, one other factoid... the Guardian Council, an unelected body of 12 Sh`ia Muslim clerics and religious jurists, is not an elected body.

Sorry if this has been mentioned before, but one thing I find interesting is Iran can build a Nuclear "power plant", yet is cant build a refinery to turn it's oil into fuel?

Originally posted by Vitchilo
The funniest thing is that most of americans consider iranians as ``brown people deserving to be nuked`` and yet THEY are less cowards than most americans, they protest and are very angry at their government which is less worse than what the US government is and will be when full power is unleashed.

Vitchilo

I disagree with you here. It's not the Iranian people that we have a problem with, it's the leadership, the government. Many Iranians have succesful businesses and have gained their education here in the US.

So, it's the same thing as other countries who hate our gov't, but not our people.

Originally posted by Spoontoad
Sorry if this has been mentioned before, but one thing I find interesting is Iran can build a Nuclear "power plant", yet is cant build a refinery to turn it's oil into fuel?

Spontoad,
That is a good point. As I recall the reactor is by Russian design and therefore financing probably in part from Russia also. But it does show how there were more interested in building a reactor and not a refinery.

I think from my recent reading that the last proposal was that China was going to supply reactors in exchange for oil, but since China has not opposed trade sanctions in UN resolution 1747, eevn China now may have backed away.

My curiousity is who actually assassinated this cleric ?

Was it Mossad, or was he a threat to the mullahs and therefore disposed of by Iranian assassins ?