BEWARE coronal mass ejections July 1 - July 10

YELLOW images are "cloud tops"

ORANGE images are "solar surface"

Today on the solar surface (compare to 24th):

Wow Sri !!! I was just about to call it a night then two posts in a matter of minutes from you

Firstup, thanks for allowing me to explore this on your thread, naturally I would like you to be a most vocal poster into the future

Yeah, I believe you when you say higher and whiter and hotter, thats hard to see from here in the middle of winter, but I dont doubt it...

what I'm looking for is the objective data we can gather from various sources together with subjective data from various people across the globe...I guess what I'm getting at, is if we are being fed baloney from the agencies who provide the raw data, maybe we can see it for what it is ?

Also, If we have ground obs, we can better describe to people as to how solar/geo mag weather can affect them from day to day, in real terms ?

Thanks for the links, Sri Me, I only look at:

IPS

and NOAA's site in order to give me an idea of what is going on elsewhere in the world

LMAO

Nah, you're not that man, just looking after you and yours...I wish you all the best and hope we can provide info which is of real use to people

Anywho, I'm for bed...Feel free to contact me via U2U in the interim

Thanks again Sri

P.S - Yes, I agree, 962 could well turn out to be something VERY special in the latter half of the year...
Peace

Dammit !!!!

I was just logging off for the night then you go and post that image

Yes, 962 has definitely grown in size and magnetic complexity over the last couple of passes (2 mths or so), one only needs to check NOAA records to see this...

The questions is, how is this baby going to evolve...Methinks its going to herald a somewhat earlier beginning to solar max that has been anticipated, I guess time and observations will tell...

I'm well up for it Sri and thankyou again for your OP...And I know you're up for the job long term...Question is, how many ATS'ers can we get to help out...

thats the next step...

Anywho, no matter how many more purty pictures you post, I am going to bed !!!

Peace

As sunspot 0962 focuses directly towards the earth, the mirror image appears as Invest 96L approaching the windward islands...

external image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
TODAY...BUT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Today's Sun:



This may mark the first named storm of the season.

Yesterday:


Today:

Looking impressive this morning. Dvorak estimates are on the rise

TropicalWxWatcher @ www.geo-earth.com...

Latest:





Watching I am,

Sri Oracle





image too large

[edit on 7-5-2007 by worldwatcher]

An interesting post to be sure, Sri

Watching storms evolve and comparing this to severe solar weather is a good way to go...Those pictures of that storm over a few days was fascinating to look at, the only real "action" in space weather these last few days was an increase in solar wind to ~600kmh in the first half of 4 June (UT time) which didn't have an obvious reason for it...

Perhaps it was caused by a delay in previous activity in reaching the Earth ?

Solar wind gradually decreased over the rest of the day 4 June and as at ~1400UT on 5 June stands at around 480kmh

On my recent travels and searches on the net regarding this subject, I stumbled across this link

A man who obviously agrees with our views of the solar minimum/maximum coming a fair bit earlier than previously predicted...Like yourself, this man outlines the possible fun and games we are going to be in for if this maximum is a big one, which seems to be the growing consensus among scientists at the moment...

One thing which Dr Odenwald seems to focus on in various parts of his sites is cutbacks to NOAA & SEC budgets over the last few years, and he puts this in comparison to the important information these agencies provide to industry and the general public worldwide

Of particular interest is this man's e-book to be found here in its entirety...Dr Odenwald discusses the history of solar weather, previous consequences of severe weather, and his predictions for the upcoming cycle...

A great read for sure...

Anyway, I hope Thursday finds you well Sri and I look forward to discussing these issue further soon

Peace

Well as promised Sri I'm here on the 10th and nothing much happened. We have a new, large sunspot (963) and are seeing some C6 flares but nothing really exciting. The sun remains fairly quiet as it has for months. Maybe your timeframe wqas just off by a bit.

www.lmsal.com...

www.solarmonitor.org...

On the 10th, 963 released a C8.2, which is just shy of M class. There were also 80 B class flares today which is noteworthy.

963 should be pointing directly at us on the 14th. Expect High C's and possibly M's for the next 3 days.



All indication is that the storms will only build from here on a year to year scale.

cycles and patterns, rhythms and oscillations.

Watching for the reverberation of the 12/7/2006 X9 event.

www.bbso.njit.edu...
963 is growing and is now beta-gamma magnetic configuration. M-class flares are possible.

I am,

Sri Oracle


[edit on 11-7-2007 by Sri Oracle]

This is all pretty typical activity for this solar period. I just don't see how this relates to the dire warnings given in your OP. Most of us know that significant events can occur at any time on the sun but I'm still at a loss as to what prompted the dire warnings you initially gave. Just business as usual (solarwise that is) from my perspective.