Iran says won't rule out using oil as a weapon

Iran says won't rule out using oil as a weapon

www.reuters.com

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran will not rule out using oil as a weapon if the United States resorts to military action against the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program, an Iranian oil official said in remarks published on Tuesday.


"When the Americans say that military action in regard to the nuclear issue has not been put aside, Iran can also say that it will not put aside oil as a tool," Iran's OPEC governor, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, told Iran's Sharq newspaper.

(visit the link for the full news article)

I don't think anyone will be shocked to here this, most of us have been saying this is what would happen anyway. Still, it gives the media something to spin as if no-one had ever thought of this scenario before.

www.reuters.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

I gather this means cutting off imports, not actually using in an offensive role?

If it's the former, then I don't see why this has made the news.

If the US goes to war against Iran, then they wouldn't be getting any oil from them anyway. Using it as an offensive tool would obviously drain their own supplies and that would just be stupid.

Am I missing something?

Iran isn't just claiming that they will stop selling oil. Their intention and threat is to block the Straights of Hormuz. 90% of the oil from the Persian Gulf region is exported through this narrow 21 mile wide passage. To put that into perspective that's over 40% of the world's oil production.

If Iran sunk a couple of tankers in this region, it could block the straights since only a few miles of the narrowest passage is actually deep enough for an oil tanker to get through. The price of Oil would instantly shoot up to over $200 a barrel. You'd be paying proably in the region of $10 - $15 dollars a gallon for gasoline, if you're lucky.



[edit on 19-6-2007 by dbates]

I can't really call this "news" as this has been surmised for... well, ummmm, forever. And as dbates has already stated, the most likely scenario involves mining the Straits of Hormuz to prevent the ME from exporting it's oil and using the new Chinese made cruise missiles against our carrier groups. $10 per gallon gas will certainly become the norm.

That aside, here is why I think that this will backfire on Iran. If you shut down the Strait, you are preventing Saudi Arabia and other ME countries from exporting their number 1 trade commodity and that will tank their economies. Let's think for a second... How likely is that other ME countries are going to sit back and passively wait for Iran to open the straights back up? I'm thinking not very likely at all.

In fact, I'm willing to bet that such a short-sighted move by the Iranians will leave them completely isolated and vulnerable. I would think that they have to know that and that this is simply and idle threat - one to be taken seriously none-the-less.

Originally posted by dbates
Iran isn't just claiming that they will stop selling oil. Their intention and threat is to block the Straights of Hormuz. 90% of the oil from the Persian Gulf region is exported through this narrow 21 mile wide passage. To put that into perspective that's over 40% of the world's oil production.

Oh, well that's not good!

We best stay in Iran's good favour then.

I agree, simply trying to selectivly sell oil and / or reduce production wont work. They will have to make a play for the Straights of Hormuz.

Mines, patrol boats, and cruise missiles.

Interstingly enough this weeks AWST has a whole section on upgraded anti mine warfare capacities the USN is bringing online including a 30MM cannon fitted to a blackhawk that fires a supercavatating round to take out mines. It uses a laser grid to detect them then destroys them.

Coincidence? I think not

Natanyahoo is coming today to New York to ask for New York State to freeze withdraw assets of Pension plans investing in Iran...so whats the difference between what Netanyahoo is doing versus what they said they will do if they are hit? Not only will it affect the regular people of Iran but I would imagine funds of Americans as well whose pensions rely on these investments for retirement. Same crap just a different day.

If Iran was smart they would stop Oil from now and try to enlist a few other countries as well. Maybe if people get a small taste of what may come they will think first before sacrificing their way of life for the sake of one Middle Eastern countries efforts to continue their own Nuclear Blackmail.


We are going to be dragged down the crap hole by this small country leading us around by the nose...just watch and see. We won't just have to worry about gas prices pretty soon with the direction we are being led once again.

pieman,

Iran can't stop producing oil (if I understand what you said correctly); they subsidize gas for the population heavily (something like 25 cents a gallon is the cost) and they depend on oil revenues (something like 40% of income is based on oil).

Iran is hurting to a degree as their refining infrastructure is falling apart due to lack of maintenance; as the revenues are being invested in nuclear technology (whatever it's purpose). Because of this, the Iranians themselves are beginning to grumble about such investments.

Hope I made sense, its late.

Originally posted by crisko
pieman,

Iran can't stop producing oil (if I understand what you said correctly); they subsidize gas for the population heavily (something like 25 cents a gallon is the cost) and they depend on oil revenues (something like 40% of income is based on oil).

Iran is hurting to a degree as their refining infrastructure is falling apart due to lack of maintenance; as the revenues are being invested in nuclear technology (whatever it's purpose). Because of this, the Iranians themselves are beginning to grumble about such investments.

Hope I made sense, its late.

I understand but obviously if Israel and US get their way they wont be producing much if they are bombed. I'm just saying maybe to give a taste of what it might be like without their oil contribution and maybe some of their allied oil producers. I mean really this is getting out of hand. Israel and many of its leaders are openly calling for bombing of Iran and they have taken it to the UN without any type of justice being done on Irans behalf. If the UN will not do something then just as we or Israel do , they should take matters into their own hands and provide sanctions of their own.

Iranian statements have been purposefully misconstrued and mistranslated to have the appearance of necessity to attack them and they have been put before the UN. The same should go for Israel openly asking for attacks as well as their politicians coming to the US and asking individual states to impose sanctions outiside of the UN as well. These are and should be taken as statements and pre-emptive acts of aggression

Our own oil companies are using oil as a money making weapon against us, who the hell cares about Iran??????

Peace

Originally posted by Dr Love
Our own oil companies are using oil as a money making weapon against us, who the hell cares about Iran??????

Peace

This is actually a good point IMHO. However, what is int he best interest of the oil companies?

If Iran closes the gulf or even hints that it preparing to do so the spot price of oil will soar. Companies and countries NOT in the ME will see huge spikes in profit.

So perhaps this is a conspiracy worth looking at. How hard would it be for an oil company to hire up some ex-Seals or Blackwood LLC types and fire off a missile from Iran and take out a taker precipitating a spike in thier profits?

I agree with ThePieMan, if US and Israel got their wishes Iran will not be producing anything for a long time, just like Iraq right now, its oil revenues going “missing” since invasion.

And the only ones to benefit from this will be the oil barons while the regular people will lose at the pump like we are doing right now.

Like Dr.Love said, our own oil companies has been using oil as weapon against us the consumer.

Perhaps this will be the right time to start the alternative fuel pushing.

Originally posted by FredT
So perhaps this is a conspiracy worth looking at. How hard would it be for an oil company to hire up some ex-Seals or Blackwood LLC types and fire off a missile from Iran and take out a taker precipitating a spike in thier profits?

Fred, the question isn't how hard, but how likely, and I sat VERY. If we want war we'll just start it ourselves. That's the advantage of controlling most of the worldwide media, you can make it look like the other guy started it.

Peace

Originally posted by FredT
If Iran closes the gulf or even hints that it preparing to do so the spot price of oil will soar. Companies and countries NOT in the ME will see huge spikes in profit.

Wat about all those rich and powerful people that invest in Oil Futures and other instruments that rely on Futures of Oil. I mean really how hard is it for someone to buy any type of labeled weapon by any country on the black market. Its been done in Iraq before and thats what began the whole "civil war" over there when these private contractors went around shooting people randomly and even filming their fun.

Marg6043 is absolutely right. The west needs to develop alternative technologies to cut dependence on oil. Conflict in the middle east is the greatest catalyst ever for new green technologies. Hoo-rah!

That aside, here is why I think that this will backfire on Iran. If you shut down the Strait, you are preventing Saudi Arabia and other ME countries from exporting their number 1 trade commodity and that will tank their economies. Let's think for a second... How likely is that other ME countries are going to sit back and passively wait for Iran to open the straights back up? I'm thinking not very likely at all.

Go for it Ahmedinejad. Make my day. Block the Straits of Hormuz and you will have not only US forces to contend but also the highly pissed airforces of UAE and Saudi Arabia. Wouldn't it be wonderful if finally the Islamic world aswell rose up against the bullies in Iran ?

These are and should be taken as statements and pre-emptive acts of aggression

Darn right Mr PieMan

Any country that has no genuine need for nuclear power, which turns down offers of nuclear reactor technology which does not need highly enriched uranium, which insists on creating bomb grade (95% U235) for Russian reactors which only need 10% enriched uranium...any country that says it need nuclear power when it has only enough uranium to fuel it's 7 reactors for 9 months each... Any country which creates a series of long range ballistic missiles and actively threatens to destroy several neighbouring countries, is not embarked on developing nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

Wake up and smell the coffee PieMan. Your Iranian friends have already issued statements and pre-emptive acts of aggression.

Originally posted by sy.gunson
Darn right Mr PieMan

Any country that has no genuine need for nuclear power, which turns down offers of nuclear reactor technology which does not need highly enriched uranium, which insists on creating bomb grade (95% U235) for Russian reactors which only need 10% enriched uranium...any country that says it need nuclear power when it has only enough uranium to fuel it's 7 reactors for 9 months each... Any country which creates a series of long range ballistic missiles and actively threatens to destroy several neighbouring countries, is not embarked on developing nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

Wake up and smell the coffee PieMan. Your Iranian friends have already issued statements and pre-emptive acts of aggression.

LOL who are You or for that matter who is Israel to determine who is in need of or who should possess nuclear power in the ME or the region?

Israel has created ballistic missiles and has also actively threatened to destroy several of their neighboring countries. Who are you trying to fool here? Do you think people are blind? Attacking an entire country because of a militant group is an act of sanity? Israel has been manufacturing weapons of mass destruction for decades now..its not for peaceful purposes, its for the purpose of holding countries hostage. Sy save your stuff for someone who will believe it because I know better then to believe that Israel is any more saner then Iran. They are just better at hiding it thats all.

If Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz I'm sure they will be able to create havoc for a few days or a week. Of course, at the end of that week, they will have no navy, no anti-ship missiles, no air force, no WMD sites and a much smaller army. There may be some mines in the gulf to be cleaned up and maybe even a sunken tanker to be moved. Oil may be $200 per barrel but it won't stay at that price very long.

I also think the Iranians are smart enough to know that such an action would be an enormous gift to George Bush. He is just waiting for Iran to give him any justification to launch a devastating military attack against them. The Iranians need to be sure they don't believe too much of their own propaganda and think they could actually win such a direct conflict.

LOL who are You or for that matter who is Israel to determine who is in need of or who should possess nuclear power in the ME or the region?

Iran has only enough uranium to fuel one nuclear power station for 6.5 years

Iran says they need to build seven and they need to enrich uranium to bomb grade.

The only reactors which need such highly enriched uranium are Plutonium breeders. There is no other purpose for plutonium than to build nuclear weapons.

This from a country which is threatening to destroy Saudia Arabia, UAE, Oman and Isreal plus Nato states which will be within range of the Shahib 5 and 6 missiles.

This is a country which last year provided Shehab 3 missiles to Hezbollah for bombardment of Isreal.

This from a country that flares off so much excess gas from it's wells that these gas reserves could power all of Iran for the next half century.

Peaceful nuclear power ?

Yeah and pigs can fly too.

Originally posted by sy.gunson

Iran has only enough uranium to fuel one nuclear power station for 6.5 years

Iran says they need to build seven and they need to enrich uranium to bomb grade.

The only reactors which need such highly enriched uranium are Plutonium breeders. There is no other purpose for plutonium than to build nuclear weapons.

This from a country which is threatening to destroy Saudia Arabia, UAE, Oman and Isreal plus Nato states which will be within range of the Shahib 5 and 6 missiles.

This is a country which last year provided Shehab 3 missiles to Hezbollah for bombardment of Isreal.


Yeah and pigs can fly too.

I dunno if they are outputting 120,000 tons of uranium from one mine and they recently just discovered 3 new sources how that would only be enough for 6.5 years and only one reactor.

Since when have they even gotten past 5% enrichment? Where are you getting this stuff about bomb grade enrichment? Even the IAEA hasn't concluded that. Where are you picking these things up from? DEBKA?

Now Iran is threatening to destroy Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Israel for no reason? If they are helping to attack it...why shouldn't they attack back? You expect everyone to lay down and accept what israel wishes to dish out? Is that what it is? The Iraqis should lay back and accept our gift of freedom too I guess you would hope as well because Natanyahoo said they too were a threat to Israel?

And we supplied Israel with Cluster bombs that even today are still killing Lebanese children and adults. So freekin what? Did they fire any of those Shehabs? No and with all the damage and carnage Israel did they should have instead of using all those crappy Katayushas. Hmm lets see several ton bombs versus 8Kg Katayushas. I think I would rather have the 16lbs of explosives versus the hundreds of pounds drop on my house from Fighter jets.