It’s Official: The Crash of the U.S. Economy has begun

Originally posted by johnb
Of course if you sell all your stock except the safe ones (precious metals) or even them and then when the markets crash you can buy them back again really cheaply getting a lot more stock for your money. So the priviledged few who knew or saw what was coming become even more rich and powerful.

The secret to selling your stocks is the timing. Sell now and you miss a lot of the upside for the rest of this year and until 2010/11. Some folks think we may double from here into 2010/11. All major collapses or even market corrections are preceded by warnings, generally technical in nature. Check out Investors Business Daily as they predicted the collapse in 2001 based on simple volume and distribution days. Quite simple and I watch their paper daily as it gives such information.

Also, I firmly think that we are in for a continued bull market, with normal corrections, until 2010/11. Why do I think this. Well stocks are very cheap from a historical valuation perspective and there is a lot of money to be invested. I worry about the baby boomers who will begin to pull out their money in the 2011 period but I do not think that it will be so bad given the global nature of the markets.

Also, check out: stockcharts.com...

This stock market expert, and one that has made me money, thinks that the markets repeat themselves and we are in for a continued major bull run. He states that 2001-2011 will be similar to 1991-2000 in the same manner as 1921-1930 repeated 1911-1920. Interesting stuff and uncanny how the charts seem to repeat.

Anyway, are we in for a collapse? Yes, but not for a little while. How do I plan on profiting from the collapse you ask. Wait for the signals in Investors Business Daily and other signs, sell my stocks and funds as near to the peak as possible (next to impossible), wait for the collapse to confirm, short as many stocks as practical, maybe buy some precious metals and commodities. If you did this in 2001-2002, you would now be very rich. Then once all of the assets are super cheap and we have had a two year bear market or so, buy on the very cheap and make even more money. Check out the 2003/04 market rise. I think this will happen again at the end of this decade.

Good luck to all.

The situtation is going to have to be delt with at some point. The longer it's ignored the worse it's going to be when it finally is or 'deals with itself onits terms'.

to say it is ignored is a gross mistatement. i would rephrase that to say 'it is not handled to my liking' or something to that effect.

I have to agree.... the idiots who are running for president will never seriously address the problems that face us as a nation. Not one. Why?

The first 4 years they will go through on the job training and more important (from their viewpoint) trying to get re-elected... their 2nd four years will be one of diminishing influence as lame duckhood sets in.

None of them, just like their parties want to be the ones to bite the bullet and to make the hard choices consequently the buck will continue to be passed to the next... whether that be the next president or the next congress and we as a nation and as a people will pay the price.

the stock market is propped up thanks to the credit bubble and the derivatives mess which was the result of deregulation (rules we don't need rules) the stock market is a wild out of control casino now.

The fed fudging around with the b/s jobs model to give the appearance of a healthier economy (is more desperation on there part to keep consumer confidence high and spending high) and also so they aren't seen as acting irresponsibly when they don't CUT intrest rates. Then they talk about inflation looming which it is around the corner and they want to keep the dollar afloat so they will raise short term intrest rates IMO and do so in the next 3 months. This will deal a blow to the very delicate markets, because the ability to get cheap credit is what this market runs on. global central banks are raising rates as well and all this means is the money supply (paper and credit) is shrinking and thus IF(and this is the big question) this trend continues this will be the end of the credit boom and people will rush for the exits.

i think people's greed and hope in there own investments makes them hope for a turnaround and can lead to being biased , bias can cloud your judgement, these people can lose.

i feel sincerely scared writing about this stuff and sometimes i try to think long and hard how this could be avoided. but the catch is the awareness is relatively very low and by the time it is in people's faces it will be 2 late infact with cheney in office it may well be point less (and yes i think we should use strong arm tactics to keep the world trading in petro dollars because our Economy and standard of living depends on it, but not in combination with outsourcing manufacturing and selling out to globilization all the while acting like the cool calm voice of the captian in the titanic telling everyone to remain calm everything is going to be ok (for those with life boats) while water is pouring through the water proof boat (economy)

p.s many smart people IMO fell for the we went to war because we need to keep OPEC trading in PETRO dollars because our nations economy depends on it. but i think when you look at this more critically what people are afraid to beleive is that

we went into iraq to greatly strengthen the presense of the private globalist oil intrests in the area, knowing how control of this area will be paramount to globilization growth in these respective energy company's in the future and that convientently it *may appear* to be in the best intrest of the dollar (and our nations economy by doing so) , but this is just the cover these sell outs needed , and it worked to convince those that know you have to look a bit deeper to get the real movitations, because these people that dug deeper may not want to see the truth that our own politicians were willing to sell out the country's national identity and the * nations vast low-middle to upper middle class economy* and that these political business men can be so selfish, infact in a world where perception trumps truth and creates reality, who could blame them for not wanting to create this belief.

[edit on 17-6-2007 by cpdaman]

Read all the replies
Scary stuff
Kelldor, great post on page 4

Originally posted by Pfeil
Well I havent been able to find any indepth articles about a Post US econimic collpse but i found this and found it to be a very interesting read.

www.energybulletin.net...

This is an interesting read, it actually held my interest and makes a lot of sense especially the part about how we have become so driven by consumption. In the last three months I have watched so much materialism while I have been surviving on the bare minimum........barely able to survive, put gas in my car to drive to work (I drive a small car), buying the cheapest meals at the grocery store, shopping at Dollar General for only what I need. Then I would go to a workplace where I worked with people who were so driven by greed, stealing from their co-workers, doing the bare minimum in their job, rejecting anything kind of work that involved a broom or mop. I would watch people come in day after day and think nothing of dropping several hundred dollars on a few dresses to wear on vacation, a resort they were visiting, going out to a restaurant where they would drop a couple hundred bucks, jumping in their SUV's and BMWs.
I started becoming jaded by it all...........I felt it was all so frivoulous compared to all the other things they could be spending their money on like the homeless problem, stray animals, people who are starving, taking on our corrupt government/corporations. I am also in the process of getting rid of the last of my possessions and I couldn't care less anymore. You can't take it with you...........does it really make you happy? None of this stuff has made me happy.
It was at that point I realized the general population of U.S. citizens is Greed is Good. People have become so materialistic they don't think about helping others, living off the land, hard work, being a community who will help each other in times of great need. Everyone looks out for themselves.........that is all. Families don't even watch out for each other any more.

If this is a reality.............it could be the greatest thing that ever happened to this nation.

Anyone read the book Patriots: surviving the coming collapse? It seems to be happening exactly like it is portrayed in the book. The way I see it, Bush is a pivotal figure in the Buisness/politics regime that has been perpetuated through our "democracy." For him to remain in power indefinitely, a well timed economic calamity would be necessary to keep him in power. Thus serving the interests of capitalist empires like carlyle. Then the colossal land grab will begin. uncollected debts will begin to be called in, long after the U.S. dollar has fallen to beyond lame values. The inflation rates will force people to seek help in order to live, there will be civil unrest. International corporations will begin to "repo" our land, in order to pay off debt. The first step to a NWO superpower. This will allow siginificant strength to make the rest of the world fall in line.

The book I mentioned above is a teriffic resource for anyone who wants to learn how to be a survivalist. If you all need saving, you will be able to find me on my land, deep in the colorado rockies.

Stockpile your food, your water, gasoline, kerosene, gunz n ammo, medical supplies. Make yourselves a G.O.O.D. pack, and get ready to run for your lives.

Originally posted by Kelldor
I don't know if you folks have heard much about the NAU up there but they plan to merge Canada into it as well.

Oh we have heard of it and we are no happier about it than you folks.


Atlantica

I posted this link in the political conspiracies forum but the topic is relevant here.

My Canadian hero is Connie Fogal of the Canadian Action Party. She RULES!! Check her out folks! She's coming out swinging and giving both barrels on the NAU/NWO and sees this as a direct threat to Canadian National Sovereignty.

I and my friends are in the process of starting a branch of the party here in my city. Where I live is owned by big oil and I do mean owned.

Irving

This is what is in my back yard and there building a Second one and a LNG terminal which is about 60% complete and they are building a pipeline for the LNG right through thisplace.
Here's the story.
So yes we do know about these things and we are going to do what we can to stop this stuff from happening. The stories I linked you too may be to late but I hope not.
And your right Kelldor, she does rock.




[edit on 19-6-2007 by GAOTU789]

[edit on 19-6-2007 by GAOTU789]

[edit on 19-6-2007 by GAOTU789]

GAOTU- Wow! I havent had enough time to study canadian politics, but it looks like you guys have a (fingers crossed) hero too! Thanks for the great sources! And here I am, blindly absorbed in my own mass pile of one nations loose ends, that I failed to notice that other countries were also fighting for their own rights and freedom as well- Hey- maybe we should hook her campaign up with Ron Pauls' he needs some kind of alliance- The Greedy far out number the Brave in that arena for sure!

www.marketoracle.co.uk...

possible global credit collapse as intrest rates rise world wide and the implications that are possible

[edit on 20-6-2007 by cpdaman]

it appears foreign investment into U.S bonds are waning as foreign investment is seeming to try to take other avenue's into there own stock markets or into more physical assets such as buildings, bridges (toll roads) , land, gold and other precious metals, even art.

it seems that while most people are crying inflation right now, the net change of rising intrest rates in markets that are leveraged to astronomical proportions will lead to a tremendous contraction of the money supply, and most inflationists IMO falsely assume the fed will just print more money aka lower interest rates but crashes occur more rapidly then the fed can adjust and also they can't make people accept money even if it is free (intrest free) since who would want to borrow 100 today if they thought buy the time they pay it back it would only be worth 60 (and they would have to still pay 100)

FIAT money will be collapsing IMO and ASSets will also deflate in value BUT the rate of deflaton will be much less and thus relatively certain assets that drop pricewise will still gain much value. i.e GOLD

those with a paid off home and some source of income should cut there spending and shift there wealth out of the stock markets and into precious metals or other tangible assets. those without the above should make friends with those generous and in posession of the above

violence will escalate. black market guns and ammo will be valuable. the classes will seperate much further (think haiti) although those with a lot of fiat cash will go from rags to riches.

this will be global. what happens after this could range anywhere from a depopulation conspiracy to a new less materialistic more family oriented approarch to life. i'm thinking cities will not be the place to be.

just to make clear my last post was about the looming contraction of the credit supply (deflation) and while people that think the fed can just print away deflation is not taking into account the amount of wealth that will vanish when the credit drys up and the new mass psychology sets in and also that the fed can't make people accept loans they can't make them take them out, and no helicopter ben will not be dropping dollars out on the public i think the economic situation that would warrant this drastic "postive" step would be overshadowed by those fighting for thiese droppings, possibly to there death

the above is not etched in stone and the fed may come up with some creative buy out plan that staves off deflation, and i wouldn't be to excited about it either especiall if you are a financially responsible citizen cause u would be taxed to death, but i woudn't bet on the fed saving the us economy.

The only people who will be really pissed are the 10 - 20 % holding all the cash. The 80% + who are in debit and have nothing much to speak of, will just want to know where their next meal will come from.

It was predicted that wealth, in worldly standards, will not help people through the times of economic colapse. The poor outnumber the wealthy 4 to 1.

If you have a stockpile of wealth at others expense, how comfortable are you, sitting on that pile? For someone mired in debit, what would be lost by a colapse of any monetary system? I would say those people would have been set free.

@ GAOTU789, I came across some message board about Atlantica 1 day and thought it was some game, like a role playing game or something. Everyone was choosing which team they would be on and it was really strange, I didn't grasp it's significance at the time. I didn't think it was real. I never saw the main site though, with all the pictures of freeway plans and globalist spewing no borders dogma. This sucks! Thanks for sharing this. I'm glad to hear your a fan of Connie Fogal, I hope the CAP does well up there, and I wish you and your friends the best of luck in starting a branch in your area. That's awesome!

@ Nowayreally, Good idea! If the 2 got together in some kind of major forum that could help bring international awareness to these issues, then mainstream media would be harder pressed to ignore them.

@cpdaman, I think the Fed's creative plan is the "Amero" unfortunately. I don't think the Fed wants to save the US economy at this point. You mentioned a cotraction in the credit supply earlier. That eerily reminds me of the contraction in the money supply that preceded the crash in '29. There's a lot of comparisons that can be made to what's happening today to what happened then. It's not the same, not identical, but there's some notable similarities. BTW, our posts are really good man!

@ win 52, I see what you mean about a financial collapse having the capability of setting us free, and the potential that it could wake up mass people around the world all at once is why in part I want to see it happen. This could have that effect, but it would also be the vehicle they need to roll out the Amero on us. Once the crash goes global though, I think they will push for a global monetary unit, and it won't be the dollar.

The main reason I wanted to post on this again though was a new article I found called "BIS warns of Great Depression dangers from credit spree."

I had never heard of The Bank for International Settlements before this. It sounds pretty significant by the way the author describes it. Going to look it up more. It's a pretty good article, but what I found most interesting was the authors assessment of China. We always hear how China's booming, blah blah and so forth. It says China's growth is unsustainable, and points out some indicators of trouble that Japan experienced in the '80's. When referring to US increases in liabilities the number presented is far lower than what is really the case, but i assume they go off the official numbers released by the government I assume, which doesn't even use standard corporate accounting practices, so I'll give 'em a pass on that one. Still, a good short read.

Kelldor

well i have been looking at some differnet perspectives lately and one that is very intresting is michael hudson who provides great analysis although sometimes i wonder about the way he ranks the players in order of there power

(mods i got the hudson info from a MPG i listened to on an I tulip forum which interviewed hudson) which is listed on his website www.michael-hudson.com...
i can't get the i tulip lnk to copy) as of yet but is also on his website listed above.

he describes that the trade deficit the U.S is running is not much of a problem because other country's are financing it. the bigger trade deficit we have, the more the other country's with the surplus's take there trade dollars and buy more federal reserve dollars from the trade deficit. and that there incentive to sell off is mute because if they started a sell off they would watch there millions or billion dollar reserve wealth shrink. he also states that the u.s govt has no intention of paying off its national debt and in fact no country ever has completely.

intresting anaylsis and he seems to think among others including myself that the derivatives market is going to implode due to a break in the chain of payments thanks to the makets taking a beating from all the mortgage defaults. this he warns could be IMMINENT due to some kind of BAD NEWS i.e a hedge fund in big trouble like bear stearns) which would lead to ASSET PRICE deflation(more houses deflation , ESP. stocks) as well as probable commodities price deflation, although consumer prices may indeed rise on consumption goods as well. which i have stated in past posts, hudson believes that banks will work out some payment plan that allows people to stay in there homes basically by letting them pay what they can , while many have negative equity on there homes as there house worth declines while there payments remain higher than the house is worth. they will basically be in debt for the forseeable future.

the only beef i have with his analysis is his belief that all this can happen market crash, home owners indebtness without a necessary effect on the dollar.

Now if the stock market crashes and housing continues to bomb out people are going to be deep in debt and have less disposable income. They will go into survival mode. this lends me to believe consumer spending will take much more of a BEATING. and if consumer spending takes a beating well demand for exports will go down. so then foreign country's wont run such major trade surplus's and they wont have the dollars to reinvest in us assets (t-blls) so this puts downward pressure on dollar. AM i missing something?

oh ya there will be a huge asset grab after asset price devaluation, likely by foreigners and those holding a basket of foreign currency's and gold seem like it would also round out a nice porfolio as well. There are a lot of vairable's and the amount the dollar may decline is difficult to predict at this time.



p.s hudson and many others also speak about the effort to privatize social security in an attempt to get people to trade there social security holdings for stocks which will be privately managed and provide liquidity to inject into the stock markets ( in the future) which will rise again and then be allowed to fall (at a time just a head of the points when the net amount of baby boomers retiring overshadows those entering the market) and the government will have wiped social securiy off it's balance sheet liability

Thanks for the posts guys! Its an interesting way to help me learn my economics (which, I should know by now, yet dont), by reading a conspiracy thread. Gotta love this site!

I don't know about a collapse of the economy, but where I work, business has been terribly slow. Slow enough to put the pinch on my personal finances. In fact, as much as I love my little job, unless things pick up soon, I'll be force to find something more substantial.

Most folks are contributing the decline in business to gasoline prices, which is logical since having to put all that extra cash into the tank, reduces the discretionary income people spend elsewhere. Dining out is an easy luxury to forgo.

Hey, I just read some of that dribble put out as 'authoritative'. It is nothing short of amazing that people buy into this tripe of 'peak oil'. I URGE you to look into the oil reserves just released by Bush, the new patented British tech for extracting deep sea oil, and the new tech for recovering the remaining TWO THIRDS of oil abandoned in old wells. At current oil consumption, we have enough oil to last us until the next millennium, without buying a DROP of foreign oil. I subscribe to various investment sites that discuss these. In addition, we have the Joe Energy Cell, and other 'free energy' supplies. I could not bring myself to finish that article, it is rather illogical. Then, there is also the oil sands supply in Canada.

Now I am going to address the financial problems in America. I don't know about the rest of the world, but I suspect they are all similar. Our government is next to completely non responsible for the massive inflation we had during the '70s. What we have been witnessing lately is, I believe, deflation, but that is inconvenient for the purveyors of the monetary lies. It all boils down to this, the money supply is harmed by counterfeiting because people are printing false currency and using it to withdraw goods and services at no cost to them. They are inflating. Governments also traditionally inflate to pay for their budgets without the taxes to pay for it. Banks, on the other hand, were loaning out money that did not even exist on counterfeit paper, they just wrote it in someones account. So when the Great Depression occurred, people demanded that they, the bankers, be taken to task. So Congress passed laws that make it a legal requirement for a banker to have $1 in deposits for every $9 he 'loans', or counterfeits. This supposedly helps prevent runs on banks, because they have all the money deposited on hand. So how could any bureaurat ever allow that? They don't bite the hand that feeds them, or gives massive 'donations' to their PACs. Last year it was, I believe, $1.2 TRILLION dollars that the banks 'created' this way. $1.2 trillion that was stolen from the US citizens, not mentioning the state, local, and federal budgets which eat up another 75% of our wealth. So how much interest are they paying you on the 1,200% that they get? 3%? Oh, so you reply, the justice system won't allow that. In 'law' school, people are taught how to prevaricate, or deceive, or lie, and not get caught. You just can't say, exactly, something not true if it is possible for someone to prove it is not true. This is why lawyers are known by the oxymoron 'liars'. It fits. I have no respect for any lawyers. Woe to you lawyers. The worst of the lawyers, who get really rich, run for political office and a salary that about covers their tipping. Giving them the benefit of the doubt that they would actually tip. Also, our judges are almost exclusively lawyers. And anyone wonders why America has problems? Police? I won't even go there...

@ Gregarious, On the Joe Cell technology, I agree with you in your assessment of it's implications. I think the oil companies and Bush administration agree with you too, which is why they are going around threatening people with their lives and their families lives if they continue using it. I'm still torn on the issue of "Peak Oil". I am trying to read up on it, but it's like "Global Warming". Every @$$ has 2 cheeks, and I can't tell which cheek looks nicer. I want to get up there and grab each cheek, but I'm afraid if I do I'll get SMACKED! Still though, I have seen the video's and stuff on wiki and I think it's got real potential. Until information like that reaches a critical mass all at once among the populace, I don't think it's safe to use. I think it's perfectly safe from a hydrogen standpoint, but not from a retaliation one. New car salesmen think it's the equivalent of a hydrogen bomb. This is BS propaganda they've been spoon fed to dissuade others from using it. You should see their eyes get big when you mention it.

Someone else mentioned "the derivatives market". I always seem to see those words in articles on this topic, but I don't know what it is exactly. I'm gonna look it up though. If anyone could give a a brief explanation it would help a lot. Thx!

Kel