Quite interesting, the thing is that flooding is the real danger not simply the velocity of the hurricaine itself. Much like in Katrina...the greatest
devastation came from flooding. Only time will tell how severe the damage will really be.
...Tropical Cyclone Gonu is the storm that had been forecast by numerical forecast guidance (most boldly so by the ECMWF) earlier in the week. Late Saturday night, local time, the core of this moderately strong tropical storm lies 665 kms/475 miles southwest of Mumbai with top sustained winds of 55 knots/100 kph. It is drifting slowly towards the west-northwest. The JTWC along with numerical forecast models indicate movement towards the west and the northwest as well as significant strengthening over at least the next 24 hours. Specifically, the ECMWF numerical forecast model is emphatic on a strong storm reaching to the shore of southern Oman. Moreover, it sustains a strong tropical low inland to the Empty Quarter--this strikes me as most unusual behavior for a tropical cyclone, though it remains to be seen whether it will happen. Looking at the latest GFS I see a much `tamer` solution that least to a strong tropical wave with rain reaching the southeastern shore of Oman...
Updated: 6/2/2007 5:44 PM
...There is TC Gonu, unusually powerful and unusually far to the northwest--and it is headed towards the northwest. Thus, the first land in the path of Gonu, as it is now moving, would be easternmost Oman. And this is where the latest JTWC advisory takes Gonu--ashore southeast of Masqat. As far as numerical forecast models, the GFS is still handling Gonu poorly, but the ECMWF, which has been remarkably prescient on this amazing storm, is still taking a powerful low ashore in SE Oman--and even into interior eastern Arabia. I cannot rule out extreme, unusual weather in UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to at least Al Ahsa and the southern/middle Najd (Riyadh)....
Updated: 6/4/2007 7:02 AM

Originally posted by Where2Hide2006
I mean i understand you guys saying that it could be a 100 year storm...but has ot ever happened BEFORE, or are you just talking ourt your ... lack of information?