Global Warming and Hurricanes

This is the kind of thing that gives anthropogenic global warming skeptics pause. This is why we question the accuracy, hence validity of the science (primarily modelling) that attempts to predict global climate trends.

2004 Global Warming Will Strengthen Hurricanes:

Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Published: September 30, 2004


Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase in the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades, according to the most comprehensive computer analysis done so far.

NY Times Story


2007 Global Warming Will Weaken Hurricanes:

Study says global warming saps hurricanes
April 18, 2007


ASSOCIATED PRESS
A new study raises the possibility that global warming makes it harder for hurricanes to form.

Washington Times Story

This just goes to show they have no idea how many or how strong hurricanes will be in any given season. Last year (2006) was predicted to be one of the worst hurricane seasons ever and yet we had only a minor one come across florida. I dont know whats predicted for this year but I feel certain when the hurricane season is over it wont resemble the prediction in anyway.

Originally posted by darkbluesky
This is the kind of thing that gives anthropogenic global warming skeptics pause.

Why specifically anthropogenic global warming?
The cause of global warming seems pretty irrelevant on weather or not hurricanes seasons get worse.

As for the subject of hurricanes and GW, it is logical to me that hurricanes would get worse. Tropical storms are fueled by heat it makes sence to have more of them as the Earth gets warmer. Also your second article explores two sides of the story.

But Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said he thinks storms' sensitivity to wind shear may be overestimated.
Mr. Emanuel, who was not involved in this research, said he published a study last year that calculated that increasing the potential intensity of a storm via warming by 10 percent increases hurricane power by 65 percent, whereas increasing shear by 10 percent decreases hurricane power by only 12 percent.

Originally posted by Umbrax

Originally posted by darkbluesky
This is the kind of thing that gives anthropogenic global warming skeptics pause.

Why specifically anthropogenic global warming?

Becasue the only answer to man made global warming is the modification of human behavior which will be costly in more ways than just financially. These behavior modifications are being dictated and demanded by folks relying on poor science. I call the science poor based on it's inability to draw a simple and consistent conclusion regarding the link between warming and Hurricanes.

Also your second article explores two sides of the story.

This illustates the level of disagreement and uncertainty.

heh, I guess science is confusing for the layman sometimes. There are probably a mere handful of studies on how future climate warming will affect hurricanes, we know very little about it really, just a few ideas and limited evidence. Some evidence shows increasing SSTs will increase intensity, now another shows increasing wind shear may ameliorate intensity. Two different processes acting on a single phenomenon. Which will have the predominate effect? I don't think anyone could be sure at this point.

This is science in action, a debate using evidence in the literature. Eventually, we will understand more about the phenomenon to make stronger conclusions about what will be the likely outcome. Only replication and further analyses will allow this to occur.

[edit on 20-4-2007 by melatonin]

Originally posted by melatonin

This is science in action, a debate using evidence in the literature. Eventually, we will understand more about the phenomenon to make stronger conclusions about what will be the likely outcome. Only replication and further analyses will allow this to occur.

[edit on 20-4-2007 by melatonin]

Understood, and I agree. However these kinds of predictions are what's driving the the agenda for carbon taxes, offsets, etc., and they are inconclusive so far as these two stories illustrate. The media takes these reports and findings and spins them up into end of the world scenarios.

I just got an idea for another thread.

Originally posted by darkbluesky
Understood, and I agree. However these kinds of predictions are what's driving the the agenda for carbon taxes, offsets, etc., and they are inconclusive so far as these two stories illustrate. The media takes these reports and findings and spins them up into end of the world scenarios.

I think for the effect of a warming climate on hurricanes, yeah, the evidence is only really just being collected. At this point, I would still fall on the side of Emanuel et al. they have some stronger causal links I reckon, this new work needs a bit more focus first before it can really be taken at face value - it's just a single paper. But this is how it works, different groups of researchers producing different lines of evidence. With time, we'll be more sure.

I don't think this sort of work is driving the agenda for political action, even ignoring all the hurricane work, the current research is sufficient for action. It's just one line of work assessing the possible outcomes of climate change. Even if the research eventually shows a warming earth will reduce hurricane intensity, the other stuff can't be ignored.

ABE: The media comment I can't but agree with. Hyperbole helps the media gain viewers/readers, but doesn't help for a rational approach.

[edit on 20-4-2007 by melatonin]