Venezuela vs Netherlands

Originally posted by BASSPLYR
Personly I think the dutch could probably beat the venezuelans single handedly. They don't have much force projection but I think even a few warplanes in the air would disuade any venezuelan aircraft from even attempting to take off. The ships would be taken out by the dutch navy and anybody whos left would probably get slaughtered on the beach trying to get ashore by dutch rifleman. I know this is all a streach but I'm trying to give the dutch some credit here.

It definitely is a stretch..
There's is no way the Dutch could get any fighters in the area w/o foreign airbases.
And the De Zeven frigates would be hard pressed with the Su-30mk2, MirageIII anti-shipping missileers..
I don't mean to be a killjoy or anything but those a/c are more than capable of taking out more than one frigate if used smartly, in conjucntion and in saturation attacks.
Then again, if the Venezuelans have stupid military commanders(not ruling that out for pure probabilistic possibilities), the Dutch can nip this one in the bud..

For the record; IMHO the Argentinians had stupid military commanders in the 82 Falklands conflict.
Not taking sides or anything; just neutral observation.

No war will happen, but if Chavez tried, expect a large European army to go marching through the streets of Venezuela.

I was trying to be nice to the Dutch Military, but don't worry you weren't a buzz kill. Since I pretty much agree with you.

Would love to see how many minutes (ok maybe just short of an hour) it would take for the US military could flatten venezuela. I know dudes will always be hiding in the jungle with rifles, so I wouldn't actually put any boots on the ground, but for fun have a few SSNs on their way back to port launch their cruise missile inventory. They are heading back home, so I say don't spare the expense launch em all and relaod at port with a new compliment of missiles & Mk 48s.

Have a few sorties flown against them.

You know just morbid curiosity taking hold.

Your thoughts.

PS the agentinian commanders did make a bunch of hairbrained moves during the falkland conflict. Saved a bunch of british lives though on the up side.

Originally posted by danwild6

Then he'll get his US "invasion". Though by that time I think the people of Venezuela will be happy to see him go.

Believe me a lot of Venezuelans understand and are happy with what he's doing. I have a Venezuelan student who told me that while Chavez is crazy and can do stupid things, a lot of things have happened for the better for Venezuelans in general and not only for the wealthy ones.

Originally posted by ThaDewd

Just outa curiosity, when did the Venezuelans migrate to the Americas? I didn't know that the Europeans where the first to the island either. but i usually slept during history. Dont get me wrong im not saying they should fight over it or anything.

They didn't if you count them as Venezuelans. Their ancestors are Europeans, Africans and Native Americans. The most of them are a mix (mestizo), but the very wealthy ones are usually very caucasian. Venezuela was created at the turn of the 19th century.

Originally posted by Daedalus3
There's is no way the Dutch could get any fighters in the area w/o foreign airbases.

Why not. There is a constant presence of f-16's at the Curacao airport. And they can get f-16's here (from Europe) within some days, which they did back in 2005 with the Holloway case.

Venezuela has 0 interest in Aruba or any other countries.
Its one of the richest country in the world.
It has immense reserves of Oil gas iron gold etc..
Chavez even if he is a little crazy did many good things for Venezuelans especially for the poor.
The Us will probably support a coup d'etat in Venezuela to get their royalties back to 1% on Oil.
Chavez raised it to 30% and nationalized the Oil industry.
The Oil profit its now going to Venezuela pocket instead than straight to big US Oil Companies.
The Us in Venezuela has been stealing for decades without giving back anything.
The US made Chavez.
Anyway Venezuela has beaches 10 times better than Aruba as well as women so why invade?
Anyway Venezuela would probably win due to the logistic.
I love the Dutch by the way big time, its one of my favorite countries in Europe with Denmark.

I agree with you on almost everything, except for the beaches and the women.. Although one of my best friends would disagree with me. He's married to a Maracucha..

Buy satellite footage? if there isn't any [esa] footage yet.. the Thales radar would be sufficient. They could shoot down a B2 bomber or even target and hit a seagull flying somewhere above venezuela.. the fregates and the submarines[walrus class] should be sufficient within that territory near their coast [once they're there fast enough].. I dont dont know much about the venezuelan airforce except their mirrage 5, sukhoi 30 and F16[ -without proper spare parts].. ..btw i hope this whole JSF project made some progress for once and our government buy these mother#ers since we put a lot of money and investment in it..

[edit on 19-4-2007 by Foppezao]

Originally posted by TheBandit795
Why not. There is a constant presence of f-16's at the Curacao airport. And they can get f-16's here (from Europe) within some days, which they did back in 2005 with the Holloway case.

Well according to scramble.nl(and they've got damn accurate stuff on AFBs the world over) theres a detachment of the 334sqn at Hato-Curacao which fields Fokker60 a/c, hardly a fighter..
So ..

Anyways; a permanent presence of F-16s would indicate a detachment of a sqn or infact an entire sqn ( man it would be a holiday posting for any pilot!! ) would serve as decent deterrence to any Venezuelan misadventures.

However since you say the coastline is 18km away and the International border is only 9km away; lets say that the distance buffer to the border for the Hato-Curacao airbase is 20km.

That leaves very little scramble time for these jets to intercept hostile a/c AFTER they have crossed into Dutch Antilles airspace.
Since the time taken to scramble a/c is anywhere between 1 to 5 minutes (unless you always have a pilot in zero-zero scramble with his jet at the base of the runway), it would be difficult to get birds off the ground.

Again I doubt that would be the case as the Dutch would probably get their birds ready and up as soon as they detected fighters approaching the international border in aggressive formations.

It all depends on who has second-guessed whom first..

Im guessing that the Dutch have decent radar installations on all/any of these islands? That would certainly help in catching a first strike really early.

Originally posted by Foppezao
Buy satellite footage? if there isn't any [esa] footage yet.. the Thales radar would be sufficient. They could shoot down a B2 bomber or even target and hit a seagull flying somewhere above venezuela.. the fregates and the submarines[walrus class] should be sufficient within that territory near their coast [once they're there fast enough]..

Well not 'buy' per say..
I guess they would get it gratis from the US.
The sat-fed would be for deciding LACM targets not for shooting down a/c..


Who/what could shoot down a B-2 bomber??!
Seagull?

As far as I know the Dutch only have one operational sub.
From what you're saying I gather that the scenario is like this:

The Dutch Frigates are already in Antillian waters and are actively searching for any aggressive action?
Well if that's the case then its good for the Dutch; butI doubt the Venezuelans would attack in such a scenario.
Their(Venezuelan) best bet would be a blitzkreig thing..

[edit on 20-4-2007 by Daedalus3]

The Thales Smart-L radar can detect stealth aircraft, even little birds, but since they dont fly 300k/h they get filtererd out of the system.
Since Venezuela is so close, this radar should be sufficient.
As fas as i know there are four operational subs Hr.ms:walrus,-dolfijn, zeeleeuw, bruinvis.

Well as far as I know that is for now only a claim by Thales Nederland.
Anyways, it is said to detect 'stealthy' missiles at 60+km and fighters at 200+km.

Also it has impressive tracking limits which are claimed to be more than 3 digit figures..
However you would need to deploy these frigates in the Dutch Antilles or you would need to deploy the radar on the Island(s).
That's why I asked about the possibility of a radar station on the islands.

Originally posted by TheBandit795
Believe me a lot of Venezuelans understand and are happy with what he's doing. I have a Venezuelan student who told me that while Chavez is crazy and can do stupid things, a lot of things have happened for the better for Venezuelans in general and not only for the wealthy ones.

Oh believe me I understand that. And while that may be true now it very well may not be true(especially if Chavez did attack Aruba)in the future. In fact from the statistcis I've seen the stanard of living has dropped a fair amount since Chavez took over. To me it just seems Chavez is following the same route Castro, Mugabe and a host of other revolutionaries have. Ride a populist agenda into office then proceed to centralize power(by what ever means), eliminate oppostion(democratic or otherwise).

Originally posted by TheBandit795
Believe me a lot of Venezuelans understand and are happy with what he's doing. I have a Venezuelan student who told me that while Chavez is crazy and can do stupid things, a lot of things have happened for the better for Venezuelans in general and not only for the wealthy ones.

Bandit,
I will agree with your statement, however take what is being said about what Chavez is doing to better Venezuleans in general and apply that to the U.S. A leader that has done a lot of crazy things and has be life better for a lot of people. That does not mean that either can not get them selves into a war that may not be necessary. That are some similarities there.

The vilification of Chavez in the US is curious, but he still seems popular enough in Venezuela and committed to continuing reform. The talk of Bolivarian superstates etc seems to be mainly South American rhetorical bravado, and there aren't any serious border questions at the moment.

(I wouldn't be a bit surprised if there was a US-backed coup attempt though).

In the event of a conflict with Holland - incredibly unlikely as it might be in real life - the real question would be how badly each side wanted to win. Thatcher surfed a wave of popular approval with the Falklands 25 years ago, but would the Dutch want to see body bags over the Antilles?

Originally posted by h3akalee
I can say this i worked with the dutch equal of the U.K S.A.S in iraq i can hardly see the U.K and U.S.A taking a back seat if such thing's evolved.

Dont worry about it i say we got your back.

How are the Dutch equal to the SAS please elaborate?. I wasent aware that the Dutch had SF in Iraq. I thought the Dutch regular forces were working alongside UK regular forces in Southern Iraq. What Dutch forces are you talking about? Are you refering about the KCT or the 7sbs both of these groups are based on the UKSAS and UKSBS and train with them.

[edit on 18-4-2007 by h3akalee]

[edit on 22-4-2007 by mojoberg]

Originally posted by Wembley
The talk of Bolivarian super-states etc seems to be mainly South American rhetorical bravado, and there aren't any serious border questions at the moment.

Well it's more than just rhetoric, the USAN (Union of South American
Nations) is comprised of every South American nation, and plan to have
a complete EU style free trade zone between member states by 2020.

And it does seem that there ultimate goal (as can be seen ins quotes from
various leaders) is the creation of a united South American state, in
essence making Simón Bolívar's dream real, at least basically.

In the event of a conflict with Holland

Technically it's the Netherlands, as Holland is a province in the
Netherlands.

Originally posted by Foppezao
www.strategypage.com...

Well, to be honest, the editor of that magazine and James Dunnigan are stupid. Not only you Dutchmen never won a war against us, but the theory that the Venezuelans would win is preposterous. How is a conscript military going to win against a professional military?

And don't even mention Venezuelan equipment:

1) 18 F-5s - F-5s are crappy, a few flew to Vietnam 30 years ago and were annihilated
2) 24 Su-30s - anyone remembers the 2001 Paris Plane Show?
3) 18 F-16s and 15 Mirage Vs against the Dutch AF's 108 F-16s - the Venezuelans are supposed to be militarily powerful?
4) 6 frigates - fine, the Dutch have 9
5) 2 German subs - fine, the Dutch have 4

the Argentinians had stupid military commanders

No. They lost because we have a larger, better trained, better equipped military, and even if they defeated the task force we sent, we would nuke them.

expect a large European army

An exactly who, except us Britons, is able to help the Dutch? The Germans? They had to lease planes from the Ukrainians just to be able to transport 3000 soldiers to Afghanistan. The French? Nowadays they have only one aircraft carrier.

[edit on 22-4-2007 by INeedHelp]

Originally posted by INeedHelp
Well, to be honest, the editor of that magazine and James Dunnigan are stupid. Not only you Dutchmen never won a war against us, but the theory that the Venezuelans would win is preposterous. How is a conscript military going to win against a professional military?

Because of the sheer geographical realities in play here, the scale is quite evened.

1) 18 F-5s - F-5s are crappy, a few flew to Vietnam 30 years ago and were annihilated

Is this how you gauge military equip?
Good on you mate!

2) 24 Su-30s - anyone remembers the 2001 Paris Plane Show?

Yeah, and then remember Cope India 04,05,06.. Garuda I, II, III and Indradhanush..
Don't know about Venezuelan handling but Mock-not the Su-30MK..

3) 18 F-16s and 15 Mirage Vs against the Dutch AF's 108 F-16s - the Venezuelans are supposed to be militarily powerful?

Yea because they can field their F-16s in the battlespace while we are still debating how the Dutch will be able to field more than a sqn of fighters in the area.
And that too if they are able to pre-empt an invasion. Otherwise you only have a sqn detachment(10 planes max) for air defence(and this is from eye-sightings of our Aruban friend hear).

Logic dictates that they won't be able to hold out for long. Not with the Su-30s having R-77AEs etc etc..
But then again; taking nothing away from the Dutch. If they can then good for them and jolly idiotic for the Venzuelans.

W/o Countires like the US and others in the Caribbean offering Airbases in the region, its not possible for the Dutch to exercise air-superiority in the area.
Esp since the islands are 10s of km from Venezuela and 1000s of km from the Netherlands.

Their best bet for that are the De Zeven frigates with that supposedly awesome Thales Smart-L radar.

4) 6 frigates - fine, the Dutch have 9

Like I said the De Zeven frigates(8 of them?) are the best bet for the Dutch in this campaign.

5) 2 German subs - fine, the Dutch have 4

As of now only one operational.. And not sure if its AIP.
Any sources on 4 operational SSKs?

the Argentinians had stupid military commanders

No. They lost because we have a larger, better trained, better equipped military, and even if they defeated the task force we sent, we would nuke them.

Firstly, no you wouldn't nuke them over the Falklands.
God help Britain if it did.
Gosh you might have even prevented the break-up of the Soviet Union with a move like that!

And secondly; yes you have a better military but you were operating at over 15000km from your own coastlines and even though you are a blue water force that is something that tends to stretch ones supply routes thin.

I would love to discuss the war; theatre by theatre and point why I think the Argentinians could have better utilised their forces; esp their limited exocets against the carrier ONLY..
Infact if Argentinians should have done much more to acquire MORE exocets from the markets worldwide.
Also using fighters that were inherently MUCH faster than the Harrier; they should have been more of match. However improper fighter deployment by the Fueraz D'Argentina and superior training on the part of the RN resulted in

Finally underestimating the British resolve to retake the Islands(and thus not implement Ops to counter the extremely stretched supply routes) was the undoing of the Argentines..

Remember that song by Evita? "Don't cry for me Argentina"

You guys won hands down; but it was more about the Argies 'losing' than you winning..

But thats another story.





[edit on 22-4-2007 by Daedalus3]