Iran - We Will Have 50,000 Centrifuges - Fact or Fantasy?

Reza Aghazadeh, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran has made the claim that Iran's goal is to have 50,000 centrifuges in operation and that they have reached the point of no return.

I am not an expert on this subject but would like to know is this feasible, does Iran need 50K centrifuges to produce uranium for peaceful purposes, how does 50K centrifuges compare to other nuclear power producing nations? It sounds like a big number, but is it really? Or is this just another fanatical claim on the part of Iran?

Iran's enrichment claims damaging, analysts say

"When we say we have entered industrial-scale enrichment, (it means) there is no way back," said Reza Aghazadeh, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency. "Installation of centrifuges will continue steadily to reach a stage where all the 50,000 centrifuges are launched."

On Monday, Iran announced that it had 3,000 centrifuges in place at Natanz and was using them to purify gaseous uranium on an "industrial level." Though some Western experts immediately raised doubts about the Iranian claim, others worried that Iran's diplomatic hardball and defiance of the U.S. and its allies was girding both camps for conflict and steering the country toward further escalation.

Educate me please.

Wow that's a lot Centrifuges, back in late January Early February they said they wanted to have 3,000 centrifuges by a given date that they didn't state when this date was, with 3000 centrifuges they could produce enough material to make 1 nuke warhead a year, now with 50,000 that cuts the amount of time down to make a warhead! but of course its for peaceful means only, OK they could be but once they have the means to make a nuclear warhead there not going to do nothing with it knowing it would give them a lot of leverage and upset a few countries.

This claim is to just a threat basically to wind up the US and EU. to install that amount of centrifuges would take a good few years about 10 years at the least then they have to learn how to use them correctly and get it down to a fine art to use them to work at 100%, so i would say its fantasy at the moment.

[edit on 11-4-2007 by u4ria]

[edit on 11-4-2007 by u4ria]

Its pretty standard to what other nuclear powers use. 50K centrifuges will yield enough enriched uranium to build approximately 18 bombs annually.

Yeah, I thought the goal was 3000 cascading centerfuges. 50K seems like overkill, unless they plan to go into business selling semi-enriched uranium, or centerfuges. How many does one sinister police-state need?

On the other hand, Link

The 50k appears to be more of a goal rather than an attainable reality anytime in the near future. There are doubts that even the current claims of 3000 centrifuges have been successfully installed by Iran and international comments are arising that the announcement was pure propaganda.

The IAEA is currently on the ground inside Iran and more than likely they will announce/verify the claims when the facts are known.


mg

Originally posted by missed_gear
The IAEA is currently on the ground inside Iran and more than likely they will announce/verify the claims when the facts are known.

It will be interesting to see what the IAEA reports but still why would this head of the nuclear admin. say 50,000 centrifuges?

Is this to raise the tensions again to affect the oil market. It seems everytime a potential conflict arises....so does the oil.

This is just to wind up the US again, if they do have 3000 built they could have enough weapons grade material in 271 days from the initial start up of these machines, but 50,000 are going to take 10 to 20 years to get setup and working then within 16 days they could have enough for 1 warhead.

I did some searching and found this article at CFR, it's an interview with Daivd Albright and he answers alot of the questions I posed in the OP.

Albright is President, Institute for Science and International Security, a group I haven't heard of so I can't verify his expertise on the subject but it is an interesting read check it out :

Albright: Iranian Nuclear Claims Exaggerated

Q: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says Iran is now a nuclear industrial country, and following that, Reza Aghazadeh, the head of the Atomic Energy Commission in Iran said that they hope to have fifty thousand centrifuges in place pretty soon. What do you make of all this? Are they really going full blast ahead now?

A: No, I don’t think so. They’re certainly not a nuclear nation in the sense of being able to run thousands or tens of thousands of centrifuges to enrich uranium. Iran defines “industrial scale” in its own way.

They do have a few thousand centrifuges as i said earlier but there all in pieces needing assembling, with the amount there saying they will have 50,000 its gonna take between 10 to 20 years to build them and learn how to use them at 100% efficiency so there still a long way off from having 50,000 up and running.

It will not take 10-20 years to get 50,000 of them. Its like anything that is manufactured...its a takes a while to get the first few up, but once production of these centrifuges is scaled up, it wont take long to produce 50K of them.

Originally posted by JacKatMtn
Reza Aghazadeh, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran has made the claim that Iran's goal is to have 50,000 centrifuges in operation and that they have reached the point of no return.

I am not an expert on this subject but would like to know is this feasible, does Iran need 50K centrifuges to produce uranium for peaceful purposes, how does 50K centrifuges compare to other nuclear power producing nations? It sounds like a big number, but is it really? Or is this just another fanatical claim on the part of Iran?

Google: brazil Resende uranium centrifuge

Brazil has already opened a plant that will eventually hold 50,000 centrifuges. They may install a hundred thousand depending on future demand.

And these are supposedly more efficient that the ones Iran is building.

Yes, they do need that many to run a domestic nuclear power program.

Originally posted by princeofpeace
It will not take 10-20 years to get 50,000 of them. Its like anything that is manufactured...its a takes a while to get the first few up, but once production of these centrifuges is scaled up, it wont take long to produce 50K of them.

im just going off David albright interview

David Albright: No. It'll take them 10 to 20 years -- at least -- to put in 50,000 centrifuges. They don't even know how to put 100 together and operate them successfully, let alone build that number. So I think it's just a threat. If you remember, Iranian officials said this same work was research, nothing beyond research, just what people would do at a university. Now, one or two weeks later, they call it "installing 50,000 centrifuges." So what this means is that they just choose words to suit their propaganda, essentially, and it was convenient for them to call it research before the [IAEA's] board of governors meeting to try to trivialize it; they want to now call it "installing 50,000" centrifuges to exaggerate it and threaten us.

Source here

Cascades are not just regular pieces of machinery that you can just slap together. These are complex machines that require expertise in installing and running them.





Cascade of gas centrifuges used to produce enriched uranium. This photograph is of a the U.S. gas centrifuge plant in Piketon, Ohio from 1984

The Link

Former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter, on Iran's nuclear program, and the complexities of centrifuge technology....See part 3, at 2:40 /2uowqz

Enlightening.....


Peace &
Good Fortune
OBE1

So that's what they look like, so i take it, it isn't just the building but installing the computers to run them, connecting everything up, fault testing, then obviously something on the scale is going to have a few bug to iron out so that's more time, then its training the staff, then its time to fire them up for a while watching that they are running correctly at low efficiency, then once that's sorted then its increasing there efficacy a bit at a time till there working at 100% which is even more time.

Hey thanks to all the members who have contributed to this thread

Meanwhile, as we wait for the report from the IAEA inspectors, the UN chief of IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, says that Iran is only in the begfinning stages of enrichment check out this article:

www.forbes.com...

RIYADH (Thomson Financial) - Iran is still in the early stages of creating a plant to enrich uranium, the chief of the UN atomic watchdog said.

'Iran is still at an early stage of building a plant to enrich uranium ... There is no fear caused by Iran's uranium enrichment (in itself), but fears arise from the purpose of this enrichment,' the International Atomic Energy Agency's Mohamed ElBaradei told reporters.

'Iran is pressing ahead with building the Natanz reactor to have 54,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium. Now it is still at the hundreds stage,' he said in what appeared to be a downplaying of Iran's progress.

[edit on 2007/4/12 by JacKatMtn]

Originally posted by u4ria
So that's what they look like, so i take it, it isn't just the building but installing the computers to run them, connecting everything up, fault testing, then obviously something on the scale is going to have a few bug to iron out so that's more time, then its training the staff, then its time to fire them up for a while watching that they are running correctly at low efficiency, then once that's sorted then its increasing there efficacy a bit at a time till there working at 100% which is even more time.

Well we are talking about radioactive materials here. Its not as some people think like its some sort of candy factory where things can get pumped out. I think certain groups are taking advantage of the fact that people are naive to the complexities involved and use this to stoke people up for an attack without grounds.

I think its funny that Israel who is already manufacturing bombs in unknown quantities, without any type of oversight and knows these complexities would be one of the leaders in this crusade to attack Iran and calling for pre-emptive strikes on their facilities before any facts are even established.

Complex it may be but there is a learning curve to everything. Once mastered yes you can pump these out as easy as making candy. AT one time, learning how to make was a b!tch.

Israel has the bomb because their people were put into furnaces and faced the threat of extinction. They are surrounded by hostiles. Thats why they have the big one. The fact they have had it as long as they have and fought the number of wars they have and STILL not used it speaks wonders. Yet the enemies they are fighting are cowards and would love to SNEAK one in somewhere. Pussies.

[edit on 12-4-2007 by princeofpeace]

Originally posted by princeofpeace
They are surrounded by hostiles. Thats why they have the big one. The fact they have had it as long as they have and fought the number of wars they have and STILL not used it speaks wonders. Yet the enemies they are fighting are cowards and would love to SNEAK one in somewhere. Pussies.

Funny you equate sneaking to being pussies ...the majority of wars or operations Israel has conducted were always sneak attacks. So what does that make the Israelis? I also loved your excuse for having the bomb..."The holocaust" yes thats a great excuse for having the ability to incinerate OTHER innocent people , because it was done to you. Good one.