Originally posted by infinite
Taking risky decisions against China is going to back fire. Who do you think will win an economic battle? the declining economy or the growing,
powerful, booming economy?
I normally agree with you infinite but this I disagree with entirely. China is 'stronger' then it has been in years past. Sure.. However china still
is a third world nation. Third world nations tend to grow at rather fast rates. (russia, brazil, india, china, etc) With the US growing at a modest
3-3.5%(which is a modest assumption) a year for the next 25 or so years, it would take a China, with an economy that would have to grow right now at
12% a clip for the next 25 years straight to equal americas same economic size by then. Which is faster than its current 9-10% growth rate, if even
that can be sustained for so long (it isnt) Even then, this is just the total GDP, not per capita GDP, which would still be merely a fourth of
America's by then. I think you underestimate the US economy. Sure we have our problems. The thing you need to remember is the interdependent world
economy. When one country experiences a 'hiccup', chances are the world will know about it. Also chinas economic growth rates are constantly
overstated by the corrupt officials in the provinces of china, who are just telling the elites of china what they want to hear. So I wouldnt put much
stock into what they say.
China will be considered a developed nation in the year 2010. China will be where the US was in 1960 in the year 2010. By the year 2015 china will
either become a democracy or they will suffer from a growth rate not much faster then the US.
China changing to the euro to buy oil from Iran who has changed to euros is not a huge shock. Higher oil prices affect china alot more then they
affect the US economy because chinas industrys are tied to industrys even more dependent on oil than the US. Sectors like automobiles, steel,
aluminum, airlines, and concrete are actually growth industries in china (as well as india). This really shows how immature chinas econnomy is. At the
same time, US corporations such as Google, Yahoo, Goldman Sachs, Pixar, Citigroup, or Oracle (just to name a few) are much less vulnerable to high oil
prices. Yet, these knowledge-based businesses are the ones that have created most of the new wealth in the US during the last 25 years, and are the
industries in which America's dominance over the rest of the world is the largest. So if high oil prices actually increase the gap between the US
economy and those that would seek to catch up to it. If oil hits $100/barrel, US GDP growth may drop from 3.5% to 2%, but China's GDP growth may
drop from 10% to 4%.
Americas economy is declining? lets look at the facts shall we. Part of the argument is that we have completely lost our manufacturing infrastructure.
Well check this out...
The index of the industrial production is up 30% over the past 10 years, its up 81% over the past 20 years.
Then we're told that china, japan and other countrys are stealing all of our high tech, well guess what? the index of production of high tech is up
735% over the past 10 years. its up 7000% over the past 20 years.
Then we're told that all of our jobs are being outsourced.... Well, guess what... Civilian employment in this country (which is at a record high)
increased by 17.6 million over the last 10years, and 34.7 million over the past 20 years. And then finally, real GDP is up 35% over the last 10 years,
and 83% over the last 20 years. ..
And what about our nations deficit?... The budget deficit now stands at about 1.4 percent of the nation's GDP, well below the 2.3 percent that's
been the norm since 1970's. And in 2008, the US deficit as percentage of GDP is projected to be at 0.7%.. Safe to say I see a strong rapidly
expanding economy...
Competition has never hurt this country. Thats all china presents. Is competition. Competition that we are currently blowing away..
[edit on 033131p://1603pm by semperfoo]