John Titor fraud or not?, page 4

Originally posted by labasta
Somebody asked before if JT made any predictions that have proven to be untrue. Well, I haven't re-read the info but I clearly remember him saying that the next president would be an Abraham Lincoln type which tried to unite the people but failed. Well, did he mean the last election? Abraham Lincoln type sounds very John Kerry to me (at least in looks, rather than actions). (Why didn't he just say the name of the President instead of talking in hushed-like tones or riddles???)
Will John Kerry be running for the 2008 election? I don't think so, although you never know. When a candidate loses I don't recall that person ever running again, do you?
Maybe there will be an Abraham Lincoln type president in 2008, not in looks, but actions????
So this isn't a total disproof, but still it makes this prediction less likely than the pre-2004 elections.

The Lincoln bit was more than likely a reference to "John Titor's" knowledge of the Fourth Turning, which if you don't know is a book by William Strauss and Neil Howe (two Washington policy wonks) who have written a series of books outlining their theory of Anglo-American history. The theory is complicated and you can read about it at www.fourthturning.com, but basically it boils down to the idea that there are repeating cycles of generational types in English and now American history, and that there is a cycle of four "turnings" that ultimately cultimates in an era of crisis. The "crisis" is the fourth turning, and according to the theory we have or are about to enter one of these periods.

Previous fourth turnings in American history have brought the revolutionary war, the civil war and reconstruction, and the depression/WW II. According to the theory, a fourth turning is a period of national peril (either real or imagined), when power tends to revert to the federal government, civil liberties are curtailed, gender norms and sexual mores become more traditional, the draft is usually reinstated, and there is a significant risk of total war.

Each fourth turning begins with a precipitating event - a catalyst - and the general feeling among people who believe in the theory is that 9/11 was the catalyst for this fourth turning. (Incidentally, the catalyst for the last fourth turning was the stock market crash of 1929, and the catalyst for the fourth turning before that was Fort Sumter.)

But back to Lincoln. As I said, the Strauss and Howe theory of history rests in part on the idea of cycles of repeating generational types, and according to this idea the baby boomers - as a "prophet" generation - will play the same type of role that FDR's generation played in the depression/second world war, and Lincoln's generation played in the civil war. (Incidentally, generation x as a "nomad" generation will according to the theory play the same role as the lost generation in WWII, and generation y - kids born in the 1980s and 1990s - will as a "hero" generation play a similiar role to the so-called greatest generation as foot soldiers.)

From the time the book came out (in the late 1990s) until even today, there has been debate among fourth turning believers about what form this fourth turning will take. Would it be an internal or external conflict or both?

There aren't a whole lot of people into the theory today that believe there will be a civil war in this 4t, but a) it is extremely likely that whoever is responsible for the John Titor posts had read the Fourth Turning and based most of the predictions on the general theory (which is why Titor has this weird presience...his "predictions" are very likely wrong but they're also likely based on a general theory that does have some merit) and b) anyone making predictions about this fourth turning in late 2000, early 2001 would I think be more likely to predict an internal rather than external conflict, given the political divide in the country, and the apparent absence of any significant external threats.

[edit on 24-1-2005 by greenturtle]

[edit on 25-1-2005 by greenturtle]

[edit on 25-1-2005 by greenturtle]