The Drums of War Beat On: Iran, The Next Stage.

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Naval forces of Iran's hardline Revolutionary Guards captured 15 British sailors and marines at gunpoint Friday in the Persian Gulf — an audacious move coming during heightened tensions between the West and Iran.

U.S. and British officials said a boarding party from the frigate HMS Cornwall was seized about 10:30 a.m. during a routine inspection of a merchant ship inside Iraqi territorial waters near the disputed Shatt al-Arab waterway.

Iran's Foreign Ministry insisted the Britons were operating in Iranian waters and would be held "for further investigation," Iranian state television said.

A U.S. Navy official in Bahrain, Cmdr. Kevin Aandahl, said Iran's Revolutionary Guard naval forces were responsible and had broadcast a brief radio message saying the British party was not harmed.

In London, the British government summoned the Iranian ambassador to the Foreign Office, and Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett said he "was left in no doubt that we want them back."

Iranian TV quoted an Iranian Foreign Ministry official as saying the top British diplomat in Tehran had been called in to receive Tehran's protest of the "illegal entry" into Iranian waters.

This IMO, could very well be Bushes golden ticket into Iran. Bush has been saber rattling for a while now, he needs an excuse, something, anything.. and now 15 UK soldiers are missing in action.. the accused assailant: The Iranian government.

"This is not the first time that British military personnel during the occupation of Iraq have entered illegally into Iran's territorial waters," the unidentified official was quoted as saying.

Britain's Defense Ministry said the Royal Navy personnel were "engaged in routine boarding operations of merchant shipping in Iraqi territorial waters" and had completed a ship inspection when they were accosted by Iranian vessels.

If the troops are not handed over safely, it is to be considered an act of war. America currently has 2 aircraft carriers, yet I have seen reports of 4 carrier groups active... any one know where they are at this time?

Fox News

So, how bad is the situation going to get?

UNITED NATIONS — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad canceled a trip to New York to address the U.N. Security Council before it votes Saturday to impose further sanctions against his country for refusing to stop enriching uranium, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said.

After intense last-minute negotiations, the six world powers that drafted the resolution overcame concerns from several council members Friday and expected it to be approved unanimously when it comes to a vote, said French Ambassador Jean-Marc de La Sabliere.

"We will be united again on this important resolution," de La Sabliere told reporters after a closed-door Security Council meeting. "We hope that Iran will reflect on this resolution and make the right choice."

The sanctions would ban Iranian arms exports and freeze the assets of 28 additional individuals and organizations involved in Iran's nuclear and missile programs. About a third of those are linked to the Revolutionary Guard, an elite military corps.

Bad enough the Iranian president will not go and defend himself before much more stricter sanctions are placed on his nation...

Let us not forget recent history..

Israel went to war and decimated the entire nation of Lebanon, led an incursion into Palestine when 2 soldiers where abducted for "crossing the border" ...

I believe had these men been American, we would already be at war.. America cannot justify a war to her people because we want to protect our ally, which we should anyways.. I believe the decision for war is now in the hands of the British government..

And amazing how this occurred just after the White House has approved a time table for withdraw -- because future events will ensure we are in Iraq/Iran for quite some more time.
Fox News

Originally posted by Rockpuck

Israel went to war and decimated the entire nation of Lebanon, led an incursion into Palestine when 2 soldiers where abducted for "crossing the border" ...

While most of your post is a good representation of the situation, this line is false, Israel did not decimate the entire nation of Lebanon.

The drums of war you speak of right now appear to be a drum solo and the drummer is of course Iran.

Let's hope the US and UK percussionists choose not to pick up their sticks and join the drumming.

Let us all hope that cooler heads prevail, I suggest a nice piano concerto, I am not much for a drum solo.

MSNBC:

TEHRAN, Iran - The Iranian military questioned 15 detained British sailors and marines Saturday and said they had confessed to illegally entering Iranian waters in an act of “blatant aggression.”

Britain has demanded the return of the sailors and marines and denied they had strayed into Iranian waters while searching for smugglers off Iraq’s coast

Iran just may say the UK has committed an act of war, either way this is an international situation getting mediocre coverage..

MSNBC

The British government said its request to communicate with the detained troops has not been granted by Iran.

Earlier Saturday, FARS reported that the sailors and marines -- including at least one womean -- were brought to Tehran to explain their "aggressive behavior." (Watch how British sailors and marines were seized Video)

The British Ministry of Defence said Friday the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy surrounded and seized the marines while they were conducting a routine inspection on a merchant vessel. They were then "escorted by Iranian vessels into Iranian territorial waters." (Location of incident)

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman on Saturday condemned the British government for attempting to cover up its "blunder" and said it should stop "putting blame on others," according to IRNA, the state-run Iranian news agency.

Hours after reports of the arrests surfaced, a flurry of diplomatic activity ensued.

Britain announced it had called Iran's ambassador for a meeting and demanded the immediate release of the marines, while Iran announced on state-run TV that it had asked Britain's representative to Tehran to explain why the personnel had crossed into Iranian territory.

CNN.com

Remember, the UN is getting ready and preparing for what could be final sanctions against Iran.

From TIME on the issue..

The most ominous detail about Iran's seizure of 15 British Royal Marines in the Shatt-al-Arab waterway on Friday morning is that the servicemen were reportedly taken into custody by the navy of the Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC is a powerful, separate branch of the Iranian armed forces. Soaked with nationalist ideology, it has grown into a state within a state in Iran, with its own naval, air and ground forces, parallel to official government institutions. The IRGC is directly controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei, the ultimate font of religious and political power in Iran. The IRGC also has its own intelligence arm and commands irregular forces such as the basij — a voluntary paramilitary group affiliated with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — and the Quds force, which has been accused by the U.S. of supplying material to Iraqi insurgents bent on killing American soldiers. The IRGC is also known for its clandestine activities including logistical support for militant organizations like Lebanon's Hizballah, which it helped to set up in the 1980s, and several Shi'a militia groups in Iraq. The IRGC's activities are often a thorn in the side of Iran's Foreign Ministry, which is forced to repair the ruptures in Tehran's diplomatic relations with countries the Guard has inflamed with its self-directed adventures. Nevertheless, it has been one of Iran's main instrument in projecting power and influence over the last few decades.

Britain has demanded the immediate release of its detained marines. For Iran's part, the country's Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini called the incident an "illegal and interventionist" entry into Iranian territorial waters by British forces and a "suspicious move... contrary to international rules and regulations." State run television reported that the British charge d'affaires had been summoned to the Foreign Ministry on Friday, and "asked that this not happen again." There were also more belligerent commentary. According to the semi-official ISNA news agency, General Ali Reza Afshar, a veteran IRGC officer and the proaganda and cultural affairs chief of the Iranian armed forces, said the detained Britons had �confessed to illegal entry into Iran's waters." He said: "The arrest of the British forces illegally entering Iran's waters showed that our country's armed forces are at all times prepared for our defense... America and its allies know that if they make a mistake in attacking Islamic Iran, they will not be able to control the dimensions and timing of a war."

TIME.com

Iran is seemingly trying to pull us into a war.....

Can we do it? Is his tactic to get us into a war, cause distress in America, it cost us 100 some billion a year in Iraq, can we handle double that for a war with Iraq and Iran at the same time?

By doubling Americas war, Iran is sure to loose, but the constant attacks and the rising death toll could bankrupt Americans support for their own government, or their governments treasury.. or a mix of the two... I believe Iran is goading America into war..

Originally posted by JacKatMtn

Originally posted by Rockpuck

Israel went to war and decimated the entire nation of Lebanon, led an incursion into Palestine when 2 soldiers where abducted for "crossing the border" ...

While most of your post is a good representation of the situation, this line is false, Israel did not decimate the entire nation of Lebanon.

The drums of war you speak of right now appear to be a drum solo and the drummer is of course Iran.

Let's hope the US and UK percussionists choose not to pick up their sticks and join the drumming.

Let us all hope that cooler heads prevail, I suggest a nice piano concerto, I am not much for a drum solo.

If you think the United States did a fair share in attacking Iraq..

Look at satellite images of Lebanon BEFORE and AFTER the war... entire sections of cities where heaped in ruins..

"entire nation" meaning no part of the nation escaped some damage. If there was a place suspected of harboring Hezbollah .. civilian buildings and all where brought down.

how ever, it is irrelevant now to the discussion at hand. You say solo drummer.. I believe America has been beating the war drums at Iran for quite some time..

Originally posted by Rockpuck
...
I believe had these men been American, we would already be at war.. America cannot justify a war to her people because we want to protect our ally, which we should anyways..

Not to detract from the provocative nature of such an incident, but I don't agree with the "would already be at war" part. Personally, I feel the overall pulse would be much the same even if it were US troops ... At least, initially

And amazing how this occurred just after the White House has approved a time table for withdraw --

Slight correction here Rockpuck ... Congress, not the White House. Bush has clearly stated he would veto any such bill if placed front of him.

... aside from that, Nice Post

Bush vowed to veto the measure if it makes it to his desk.

"A narrow majority in the House of Representatives abdicated its responsibility by passing a war spending bill that has no chance of becoming law and brings us no closer to getting our troops the resources they need to do their job," Bush said from the White House Diplomatic Reception Room while joined by family members of veterans and troops in combat.

Bush called on Congress to fund the troops, saying the current bill contains "too much pork, too many conditions.

You are correct, Bush will veto any bill pulling troops out..

Though I swore I heard on the news last night that bush would consider pulling them out next September/October as a start to the withdraw?

I must of mixed it up eh?

FOX NEWS

I am still waiting for the UN council... will Bush suggest military action or propose yet further sanctions then those set to be passed?

Perhaps Iran, in retaliation for the sanctions that will be passed would rather fight now when they are stronger..

Or perhaps the Revolutionary Guard, practically a government within its self decided to take matters into their own hands.. They do tend to be nationalistic, they are also the ones believed to be behind the Iranian support of insurgents in Iraq.

Status of Navy Link is Below. 2 Carriers and several other attack groups.

USN Status

2 carrier groups would be enough to initiate an attack, but I wouldn't expect to actually see anything until at least 3 are in the region.. The Reagan could be there in just a few days however.. as could the enterprise pending on where at in the Atlantic it is located..

Originally posted by Rockpuck
Though I swore I heard on the news last night that bush would consider pulling them out next September/October as a start to the withdraw?

I must of mixed it up eh?

"consider" next [2008] ... Sept ... Oct ... ??? Polls ring a bell?

Historically, a party "at war" Stays ... in office, too.

The "drums of war" reference in your title may prove true .. if only at the ballot boxes. Many may argue it'll never happen, but history demonstrates such ... time and again.


$.02

Originally posted by Rockpuck
how ever, it is irrelevant now to the discussion at hand. You say solo drummer.. I believe America has been beating the war drums at Iran for quite some time..

You are correct, my drum solo was in respect to the very recent events of a couple of weeks.

I think the "axis of evil" speech brought this to the forefront, We know what happpend in Iraq, N.Korea was temporarily bought off and then you have Iran.

To put it bluntly, their leadership knows our leadership has been writing checks our arse really does not want to cash.

Calling a bluff with you and I and our families lives in the balance.

Great research and great post Rockpuck though I disagree with the Lebanon part, that destruction will be nothing compared to what is in store if our leaders cannot come to their senses and end this madness.

Can we please for a moment consider that the Iranians might be right on the issue? That the UK sailors on a little boat with presumably lacking navigation equipment DID enter Iranian territotial waters?

Because I am not willing to accept this as a pretext for war just because one side says they WERE in Iranian waters while the other denies it. So far the meia reports do not prove that the Iranians did anything wrong, or anything what the Brits or others would not have done similar in such a situation.

Also keep in mind that as the area is disputed, what constitutes "Iranian territory" depends very much on who is talking. Also IIRC it was an Iranian freighter that was boarded - if a US flagged cargo vessel was boarded by, say the Mexican Navy, in disputed territory, the US might react as well.

IMHO This thing is being blown out of proportion. The last time this happened the Marines were released after a few days, unharmed, after Iran had milked the incident for propaganda value. I doubt things will be much different this time.

Iran had captured soldiers prior to this incident? Didn't know that xmote. do you have a source??

Also, as far as who was in whos water, if the ship was suspected of carrying illegal cargo into Iraq, I think they still have the right to board it.. though im not sure..

As you stated borders in this area are disputed, as most national borders at sea are.

it was 2004 and 8 royal marines i do belive were captured and released after 3 days, it was under the same circumstances.

www.sfgate.com.../c/a/2004/06/23/MNGI27AER61.DTL

This is exactly what Bush wanted.

Have some soldiers get captured in order to justify any show of aggression, then build up forces in the gulf and wait for the right moment to start bombing them back into the stoneage.

This is going to escalate rapidly.

^ i agree

[edit on 27-3-2007 by SR]

I swear there's a NWO it's like how people have been saying all these years.

Like we're trapped i don't no about anyone else but this whole incident smells like it was set up for this very reaction sure people will think i am paranoid but the Iranian's could of done this one or two months ago if they really wanted maximum impact especially when old George was rattling on about there nuclear programme.

As well it beg's the question maybe the Brits were in there waters doing something? only time will tell when the evidence comes out.

Seriously how much money does the USA have if it really went to war with Iran how the hell is everyone going to afford this one as well as Iraq and Afghanistan????

lol i hope no crazy fool tries to take out the President cause that will make things worse it would seal the deal for war it's like George Bush can do anything he wants he don't have to listen to the people and he can pull a scam so congress gets his back.

The guy just can't lose he really has got the world swinging from his nuts everyone thinks Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a nut but the dude get's constantly misqouted and is actually arguing a fair case about the nuclear programme although he is no innocent i do sympathise with Iran more and more as time goes by.

Originally posted by Don Wahn
This is exactly what Bush wanted.

Have some soldiers get captured in order to justify any show of aggression, then build up forces in the gulf and wait for the right moment to start bombing them back into the stoneage.

This is going to escalate rapidly.

This is sadly, exactly what I see happening.....

Moving ships in, doing mock bombing runs.... this imo is a prelude to war.. a war that Bush no doubt wants..

I wonder how the public will take it when we start bombing Iran?

Originally posted by xmotex
Also keep in mind that as the area is disputed, what constitutes "Iranian territory" depends very much on who is talking. Also IIRC it was an Iranian freighter that was boarded - if a US flagged cargo vessel was boarded by, say the Mexican Navy, in disputed territory, the US might react as well.

IMHO This thing is being blown out of proportion. The last time this happened the Marines were released after a few days, unharmed, after Iran had milked the incident for propaganda value. I doubt things will be much different this time.

The GPS read-out was made where an Indian merchant ship was boarded by the British inspection party on Friday.

Source: BBC

Sorry but it was a Indian freighter, which sort of wrecks your analogy. It would be more like the USCG boards a German ship in Mexican waters and the Cubans arrest the USCG crew.

Personally I think that the Brits are doing great. They are not being baited in to a rash decision. The very fact that Iran, when confronted with the fact that their 1st set of Cord. were in Iraqi waters, were like: "Oh....Oh what were meeeent to say was that they were here! Yeah...Yeah...that's the ticket!"

The longer this goes on the more and more Iran looks like the geo-political equivalent of a discussion Troll!