posted on Mar, 20 2007 @ 11:00 PM
I have been monitoring this subject closely as well, having lived in the North Caucasus and Crimea (Sevastopol, Sukhumi, Tuapse) a large part of my
life, and having witnessed the ethnical and national issues in those regions in the 1990's.
I am actually interested in many of the topics you listed, plus the position of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh regarding the new Caspian pipeline
network, and the US partnerships with Azerbaijan and Georgia.
One particularly interesting aspect I noticed, is how much US involvement in the region rose post 9/11 (and in Central Asia as well), from virtually
nothing in the late 90's. What Georgia and Azerbaijan has to do with the War On Terror I do not know, but there is a lot of coincidental events
between the WOT and the "color revolutions" in ex-USSR states.
I am of the opinion that US used the increased "global involvement" of the War On Terror, to expand to Russia's usual sphere of influence. Nothing
to do with terrorists, or freedom, but influence and oil. Only Bush did not seem to predict that Putin will push Russia so far forward as well, and
now the two countries seem to be scrambling for controling influence in these regions. What I do not understand, is what US sees in this opportunity
to gain a few shaky allies, but allienate Russia as a potential partner.
Add to this mess the even more unstable situation in Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan), the prospective "missile shield" in Czech
Republic and Poland, and the unresolved issues with Belarus, Kosovo (although somewhat apart from the ex-Soviet issues), and Transdniester.
I don't think US really knows what it is getting itself into in these situations. Especially with the Caspian pipeline. If US really wants to get
involved with this, and invest more and more and the region I can see lots of conflicts ahead. Nagorno Karabakh is waiting to ignite, Azerbaijan is
too unstable to have too much money pumped into its economy, and Georgia has its own wars to finish, in which US is bound to get involved one way or
another. This could be Middle East 2.0, with oil, extremists, and everything. Caspian Pipeline is destabilizing to the whole region, and all US is
doing is looking for ways to "explore the Caspian" even more.
I do believe that this is the geopolitical field to watch right now. Any election/coup/war could drag in Russia, US, or better yet- both.