The United States' future as a Super Power

Often it is said that the United States' dependency in the world as a Super Power is centered around China's future, will China succeed in becomming a stronger economy than the US, will China's military surpass that of the US?

I disagree now after much reading, I have selected this line to represent my thoughts:

"The Russian President’s visit is also a very interesting event because Riyadh needs to talk to Russia in order to manage the energy market. Russia today is the largest producer of oil in the world, even higher than Saudi Arabia, although they are not the largest exporter. They are also the largest producer and largest exporter of natural gas in the world. So if the Saudis and the Russians can have similar views on how to work the world’s energy markets and the Saudis and the Chinese can develop the economic relationship it will change Riyadh’s approach to foreign policy. I think that’s what we are beginning to see." -- Jean Francois Seznec

If Saudi Arabia links between Russia (another Military super power) and China (an economic muscle) then Saudi Arabia can control the world's energy market and if those countries were to grow closer together in relations the center of global influence would definately start to shift from Washington D.C. to Moscow.

Undoubtedly Russia knows the potential, perhaps their pushing for an Iranian Nuclear program was simply to bring Saudi Arabia to the table.

Push nuclear weapons for Iran and you push the Sauds into negotiations that later opens a door for business.

The control of oil supply isn't dominated by Saudi Arabia but together with Russia the two could certainly corner a large part of the market, this is enough that while the US may still be a shining example of freedom and influential...

The loss of Saudi Arabia as all but a commercial partner could mean the shift of global power from the US to Russia. Russia remembers all too well that Saudi Arabia's influence in OPEC was very influential in the distruction of the Soviet Union.

It is unlikely analysts for the Russian Federation are over-looking Saudi Arabia's flight from the West due to the Iraq war and other complications.

I didn't ellaborate significantly enough on the matter or task of how A effects B effects C.

The idea that Saudi Arabia is in the pocket of the US is ... more a US idea than a Saudi idea - the Sauds are doing more and more business with Asia and China specifically and are seeking to strengthen that further, China is their second largest importer of Saudi goods (including oil) behind the US. So, the idea that Saudi Arabia is dependent upon the US is a feeble one. That is changing sooner than later.

However, in this thread it is not so much a discussion of who Saudi Arabia does business with but where Global Influence lies, right now if you think of "Global Influence" you think of Washington D.C. or New York and the UN. But, that can change (obviously) and here is where A effects B effects C.

Saudi Arabia, severing its connections with the West, would boost production of another "Bloc" for its oil by nearly 10 million barrels a day. Nearly 15% of the world's oil production. This in itself is a weapon, economic, especially when combined with the two other oil giants in the world; China (in consumption and some production) and Russia (largely in production). The combined interests become stronger when the fact is driven home that Saudi Arabia must rely upon a military hegemon for security.

Russia is the only other option. Not because China may or may not be weaker than the US and Russia, but Russia has the materiel to fight the US, they have the Nuclear weapons, they have the military. Saudi Arabia could shift Global Influence easily by shifting their military defense purchases from the US to Russia and building a Russian lobby.

This transition won't be over night but what it means is the world's "hub" (Read Dune, or think of the world as a wheel of oil constantly spinning) now spins for Russia and China instead of the US. This leaves the US with several options, develop Canadian oil and have it become a new hub for China and Europe, or suffer decades of reallignment as Russia assumes a role of prominence it has never truly had. The Soviet Union could sometimes effect markets but only insignificantly; now Russia can almost dominate a market and with Saudi Arabia they could pressure Europe beyond any means of tollerance.

NATO cannot defend against Europe's oil supply, if it is attacked in the same manner as the Soviet Union's was in the 1980s.

The realignment alone is what I am interested in because it is a potential. Russia wouldn't lead over China or Saudi Arabia but their combined interests could become potent and ESPECIALLY potent in the 3rd world.

The 3rd world could seek business with those 3 rather than seeking business and aid with the West...the UN would become more dominated by Russia and China instead of the US and Britain...and the end result could be a rise of new economic masters.

Saudi Arabia for a long time has been considered a backward country but if Russia went from peasantry to industry in 70 years, Saudi Arabia has gone from cavemen to industry in 60 years. This transition has been phenomenal and is not slowing down, it would not surprise me that some day a "bubble will burst" and Saudi Arabia will be making higher-end products for export.

Saudi Arabia may not be a master of the world, may not have the military, but through the right alliances it can shift everything, and over time its name may be as respected in the machinery and technology business as Germany...right now China receives most of their high tech machinery from Germany then Japan, no reason to expect as their economy grows they won't look for more exporters - and Saudi Arabia has been developing the base to become such a thing.

I suppose we can play this hypothesis game for a while.

But the point is right now we are seeing a move of Saudi Arabia away from the US and towards China, if Russia's next I think the US will lose a lost of influence and Russia may find itself in the Imperialistic role it's been looking for. The only thing holding Saudi Arabia back is the dependence on a strong Currency...Russia's and China's are not strong enough to entice Saudi Arabia to another economic sphere yet - but China is fastly getting there.