Yale Economic Model Is Predicting Bush In 2004, page 1
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Topic started on 22-12-2003 @ 03:42 PM by Seekerof
Based on GDP Growth, Inflation numbers, and previous quarters of economic growth Good News, Presisdent Bush will remain President. As it stands right now, the model is predicting a 58.3% of the two-party vote (popular vote).

"Yale's FAIRMODEL Information"
Link:
fairmodel.econ.yale.edu...

"Presidential Vote Equation"
Link:
fairmodel.econ.yale.edu...

"Presidential Vote Equation--October 31, 2003"
Link:
fairmodel.econ.yale.edu...

"The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model (July 31, 2003) were 2.4 percent, 1.8 percent, and 1, respectively. The current predictions from the US model (October 31, 2003) are 2.4 percent, 1.9 percent, and 3. The only significant change concerns the GOODNEWS prediction. The previous quarter (2003:3) turned out to be a good news quarter, and the US model is predicting that the current quarter (2003:4) will also be a good news quarter. Neither of these quarters before was predicted to be a good news quarter. Each good news quarter adds 0.837 percentage points to the incumbent vote share, so two extra good news quarters adds 1.674 percentage points for President Bush. The new economic values give a prediction of 58.3 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 56.7 percent before. This does not, however, change the main story that the equation has been making from the beginning, namely that President Bush is predicted to win by a sizable margin. The margin is just now even larger than before."



Expanding on this 'prediction' further, it seems that this particular model for predicting presidents has a fairly impressive record....as seen by scrolling down to the near bottom of this page:

"....Bush's Chances in 2004"
Link:
fairmodel.econ.yale.edu...


I also found this article, by the Conference Board, predicting a economic forecast for 2004:
"2004 Will Be the U.S.'S Best Year Economically in Last 20 Years, The Conference Board Reports in a Revised Forecast"
Link:
biz.yahoo.com...

Excerpt:
"Thursday December 11, 11:01 am ET


NEW YORK, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Revising its year-end economic forecast sharply upward, The Conference Board today projected that real GDP growth will hit 5.7% next year, making 2004 the best year economically in the last 20 years.
The forecast, by Conference Board Chief Economist Gail Fosler, expects worker productivity, which set a 20-year record in the third quarter, to rise at a healthy 3.6% next year. That would follow a gain of 4.3% this year.

The economic forecast is prepared for more than 2,500 corporate members of The Conference Board's global business network, based in 66 nations."



So....what do you folks think? What will happen is 2004?


regards
seekerof
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