Psychohistory...

Ok admitedly this is a fictional science, brought forth by Isac Asimov in his foundation series of books.

But thinking about this I can see where it actualy might work. Its derived from probablity and calculatable odds of occourance.

From Wiki (sad I know)

So the psychological methodology of events that have already occoured, combined with the recent trends in world events and added into the equasion the probablity of certan events occoring in the future could be used to nearly accuratly predict the future trends hapining on a global scale.

It would be impossible to predict the actions of a single person but I think that there is quite a possibility to start predicting the events of the planet using a mathimatical formula.

Unfortunatly I don't have the mathimatical know how to even begin putting the equasions together. But perhaps some people on this board could know what to do.

Remember a lot of real science came from the persuit of science fiction.

why is it sad to reference wikipedia?

In general I don't trust Wiki. as anyone can update the text there. I was actualy looking for some concrete evidence to this theory but the best I could find was on wiki.

Im not saying that Wiki is always a bad choice but I was more looking for something more substancial.

To be honest with you I remember reading on a site where someone is trying to do exactly that. However the best that they could do is to predict some "cycles" dealing with rise and falls of civilizations based on amount of time, etc. Nothng concrete though. I'm sorry I can't find the exact reference for you but I know it wasn't on Wiki.

reply to post by whatukno
What you have proposed is certainly good brain food. It's times like this I wish I were more mathematically inclined.

It would seem to me that insurance companies use this type of method to predict and modify the type of insurance coverage they sell to businesses and the public.

Speech writers and commercial creators would also use this to make their presentations more effective.

I do realize this is not on the scale you are seeking but does seem to parallel your idea.

IMO it is not unreasonable to expect a formula to be created to reach the equation you are seeking.

How nice it would be if the formula was birthed by one of our own here on ATS.

First, great post, was wading through the swamp and saw your light!

I don't believe what you say is so far from the truth....but it is not the humble likes of ourselves who can calculate the answers to those questions.

Someone, somewhere has enough global information to generate and predict the "trends" you speak of. The more information they input, the more acurate the predictions become.

Everyday now, untold millions, if not billions of items of information would be input.......and it probably started centuries ago too.

And with technology getting better in parallel ........ Use your imagination .....

mr asimov did.

Originally posted by whatukno

It would be impossible to predict the actions of a single person

Not if the person was unaware of their "controlled" situation.

Enough information of a subjects status and position:
money
health
employment
education
family
friends
transport
food
books
habits
legal
political
likes
dislikes
etc...

and control over, and/or knowledge of the subjects environment would inevitably force a pre-determined reaction if certain outside forces were introduced resulting in predicted human nature. Trends are "set".

And wouldn't it be great if the subject never knew what's going on?

[edit on 12/6/2008 by nerbot]

Some interesting replies to this thread, I wonder however, what mathimatics would be involved with a project like this. I do know that there is a program going that does track internet habits it's called. Web Bot That uses trends online to predict different outcomes.

I wonder if this is the start of a feasable human Psychohistory? I mean if it is possible to develop trends on the internet how long would it be before that mathimatics can be developed for use in the real world using controlled information. Like the amount of information that is collected every single day.

A single person according to the pseudo science of psychohistory cannot be predicted because they have infinate numbers of choices every single day therefore there would be no feasable way in order to realisticly predict that person's actions.

This is why I like ATS, I can cite fringe sources

Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars

Draws a parallel of economic flow paths (macro and micro) to electronic circuits:

1. Economic Capacitance - Capital (money, stock/inventory, investments in buildings and durables, etc.)
2. Economic Conductance - Goods (production flow coefficients)
3. Economic Inductance - Services (the influence of the population of industry on output)

then contends 'context free' mathematical models, for circuit testing and optimization, are applied to covert sophisticated economic models wielded by the elite.

Models are improved iteratively, using known inputs, and measured observed outputs (eg, as posted in nerbots list).

Example of context-free mathematical modeling:

Global Optima for Linearly Constrained Business Decision Models

A model can be built up around anything definable as a basic 'energy': electricity, money, information, political opinion, etc., etc., limited by determinable extent.

I'd say the currently available psychohistory is to be found in advertising, plus mind control cults. So it's not much above the cookbook level, yet, I don't think. If there was yet a true theory from the ground up, that governed an advertisement, we would all own the product. And if a mind control cult had generally-effective tech, we would all already belong to it.
There are tricks, though, plus like in yoga/meditation, NLP, ritual magic, confidence swindling, stage magic ...and then neuroscience.
But I think many people who explore systematizing this don't write a book, they just try to be hired as messiah, once they get some skills.