Psychohistory..., page 1

Ok admitedly this is a fictional science, brought forth by Isac Asimov in his foundation series of books.

But thinking about this I can see where it actualy might work. Its derived from probablity and calculatable odds of occourance.

From Wiki (sad I know)

So the psychological methodology of events that have already occoured, combined with the recent trends in world events and added into the equasion the probablity of certan events occoring in the future could be used to nearly accuratly predict the future trends hapining on a global scale.

It would be impossible to predict the actions of a single person but I think that there is quite a possibility to start predicting the events of the planet using a mathimatical formula.

Unfortunatly I don't have the mathimatical know how to even begin putting the equasions together. But perhaps some people on this board could know what to do.

Remember a lot of real science came from the persuit of science fiction.

reply to post by whatukno

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What you have proposed is certainly good brain food. It's times like this I wish I were more mathematically inclined.

It would seem to me that insurance companies use this type of method to predict and modify the type of insurance coverage they sell to businesses and the public.

Speech writers and commercial creators would also use this to make their presentations more effective.

I do realize this is not on the scale you are seeking but does seem to parallel your idea.

IMO it is not unreasonable to expect a formula to be created to reach the equation you are seeking.

How nice it would be if the formula was birthed by one of our own here on ATS.

Some interesting replies to this thread, I wonder however, what mathimatics would be involved with a project like this. I do know that there is a program going that does track internet habits it's called. Web Bot That uses trends online to predict different outcomes.

I wonder if this is the start of a feasable human Psychohistory? I mean if it is possible to develop trends on the internet how long would it be before that mathimatics can be developed for use in the real world using controlled information. Like the amount of information that is collected every single day.

A single person according to the pseudo science of psychohistory cannot be predicted because they have infinate numbers of choices every single day therefore there would be no feasable way in order to realisticly predict that person's actions.

This is why I like ATS, I can cite fringe sources

Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars

Draws a parallel of economic flow paths (macro and micro) to electronic circuits:

1. Economic Capacitance - Capital (money, stock/inventory, investments in buildings and durables, etc.)
2. Economic Conductance - Goods (production flow coefficients)
3. Economic Inductance - Services (the influence of the population of industry on output)

then contends 'context free' mathematical models, for circuit testing and optimization, are applied to covert sophisticated economic models wielded by the elite.

Models are improved iteratively, using known inputs, and measured observed outputs (eg, as posted in nerbots list).

Example of context-free mathematical modeling:

Global Optima for Linearly Constrained Business Decision Models

A model can be built up around anything definable as a basic 'energy': electricity, money, information, political opinion, etc., etc., limited by determinable extent.

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