2007 Hurricane Forecast: Is La Niña Coming?, page 1
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Topic started on 27-1-2007 @ 05:50 PM by Regenmacher
With El Niño on the decline and models hinting at La Niña, we are looking at a very active Atlantic hurricane season for 2007. This could also explain why the unbelievably warm winter is becoming more normal across most of the Northern Hemisphere this week.

Sea Surface Temperature Images



The weak El Niño is beginning to die off.


Models hinting at La Niña by summer.

So it looks like La Nina is coming and if this is coupled with a postive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, it will mean an even greater risk to the Eastern US coast for tropical storms.


reply posted on 27-1-2007 @ 06:45 PM by Regenmacher
Originally posted by Kr0n0s
As a catostrophic claims insurance adjuster, this news causes mixed feelings for me.


We could hit a fifth
Kelvin wave and the El Niño gets even stronger, but it doesn't look that way. This El Niño was rather odd since it started at the end of summer too.

Officially, I would keep and eye on the ENSO data and see what the CPC says in the coming weeks. CPC El Niño Southern Oscillation

[edit on 27-1-2007 by Regenmacher]



reply posted on 29-1-2007 @ 11:11 AM by Regenmacher
Austrialia's BoM puts nail in the El Niño coffin, models are now in consensus that we will have a neutral ENSO perhaps within a month. A neutral ENSO refers to periods when neither El Nino nor La Nina is present



FORECAST ENSO CONDITIONS

The consensus from the models is that the Pacific Ocean's anomalous warmth has peaked and a modest but steady cooling trend may be expected in the first half of 2007. This pattern is fairly typical of the demise of past El Niño events.


Atlantic hurricane activity will be enhanced by neutral ENSO conditions and La Niña is even more.

NOAA La Niña page

[edit on 29-1-2007 by Regenmacher]
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