posted on Jan, 26 2007 @ 12:57 AM
The Story So Far
You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to know what's coming next. "Tradition" and "tolerance" are about to collide. The first two years
of George W. Bush's second term witnessed a steady escalation in America's undeclared culture war as the disciples of Tradition gird for battle
against the forces of Tolerance. As they come to blows, both camps will raise similar flags to rally their troops. Abortion, gay marriage, and
health care will each be seen as the other side's weakness.
As both sides struggle to achieve dominance in the arena of politics, they're stirring the winds of change in to a ravenous whirling firestorm that
might consume the society that is their "prize" for victory. In the history of a nation, moments like this don't come along very often. When they
do, they signal one of two things. Evolution of the society, or, death of the nation. As an author of predictive political fiction, I feel properly
placed in the strata of our society to call it as I see it.
In the summer of 1861, our nation stood divided. By today's standards, ideological roles were reversed. The forces of Tolerance held the upper hand
and were ready to spill blood to make their point. The disciples of Tradition stood equally defiant, ready to defend what they'd worked so hard to
build from virtually nothing. Trade, and Slavery were the two largest battle standards that flew in the vanguards. Then, as now, an 'undeclared
war' had been fought in the decade leading up to the actual "event."
If history is our guide, we find ourselves in the decade leading up to an "event." Today's issues are different, but the passion that motivated
both sides in that Civil War still burns in our veins. It comes to life each time we pick up a newspaper or t.v. remote. The flags have changed, and
the battlefields will be different, but the "event" will be fueled by two ideas that have clashed before. Only the names of the people involved
As modern war drums electronically throb and pulse along that sacred swath of Potomac, we need to understand that we've been down this path once
before, and we survived. More good than bad came from the Civil War. As we watch career politicians on both sides of the aisles continue to
legislate away our freedoms, liberties, and privileges, the issue is in doubt as we get ready to face up to our own "event." I'd like to think
that the death of this nation is not to be seen for a thousand years, if ever. If our elected leaders don't cripple us before the fight starts, we
might bear witness to an evolution of our democracy that will embrace some degree of change while preserving the most sacred of our traditions.
Aggression in the 21st Century
You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to know what's coming next. The Middle Eastern terror threat is about to have competition. We're just
now starting to see the rise of trans-national groups that will attack us from many different directions, for many different reasons. The same
technology that powers the trend called Globalization will also empower trans-national terror groups.
People of like mind, regardless of where they live, are talking to each other right now. Loose associations are being forged in to tight-knit groups
that will one day give birth to new underground organizations. These new entities will employ de-centralized chains of command (autonomous cells),
using guerilla tactics to achieve their goals. Today's Eco-terrorist movements provide us with a crude example of what we will soon be up against.
These future terror groups will have a variety of motivations. Religious, Economic, and Socially motivated recruits will compete for the media's
In the past, we've been confronted by the threat of State-sponsored enemies. Tomorrow's hostile forces won't owe their existence to any
government. They may be aligned with or sympathetic specific religions, nationalities, or ethnicities, but; they be 'owned' by any sovereign power.
Some of these groups may even be purely mercenary. This is to say they will provide goods or services to anyone who meets their price, without
regard to any laws or borders they might violate along the way. Hence, the trans-national designation.
Why will this happened? Just one reason. The overall effect of Globalization means the tearing down of barriers. Social, ethnic, economic, and
theological chaos will ensue. That, at least, is the fear of many. To some extent, their fears are justified. Here's why. The current round of
Globalization is over-powering or destroying many of the world's oldest economies. For some, this is a good thing. For others, its all the reason
they need to take up arms against the countries pushing the very idea of Globalization.
History tells us that economic change leads to other sorts of change. As Society and Religion get sucked in to the mix, we'll start seeing that
chaos I mentioned. Some trans-national terror groups won't even have names, though most will have snappy media-friendly images that help make their
point and boost recruiting. Instant world-wide communications will let them talk to you, or 'at' you, from anywhere on the planet. Transmission of
real-time video will let you see that they mean business.
Just because we know this threat is coming doesn't mean we'll be able to put a stop to it. We can't agree on how to stop today's terror groups.
As I write this, only one thing seems genuinely obvious. As Americans, our freedoms are under assault now by just a handful of regional terror groups
that we can identify. If we're not careful, our freedoms will soon be under siege by a multitude of global groups that we might not be able to track
The Evolution of Terror
You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to know who today's trans-natioanl terrorists really are, or what they are about to become. Some are
the Muslim extremists we've all seen reported on the evening news. Others are motivated by non-religious causes. Environmentalism. Marxism.
Arbortion. A precious few are in it for reasons we'll never understand. In every cases, these groups are headed up by people who know one thing you
Today's Old School terrorists are being replaced by a new breed of pseudo-ideological entrepreneurs. They're in if for the money. They don't owe
allegiance to any nation or government. They are so elusive that today's intelligence community can barely track them. CIA, NSA, DIA, and Homeland
Security are not yet equipped to deal with this emerging threat. If you pay close attention to what you see on the news, you'll be able to watch
Terror groups like Al Qaeda and HAMAS represent two ends of a rapidly changing spectrum. In spite of all the bad press, Al Queada is being hunted to
the edge of extinction. HAMAS is about to be co-opted by political interests. Within the next two years, the leadership of both groups will be
un-employed if they don't change the way they "do business." The Arafat era has come to an end. Both groups have been too successful for their
own good. For different reasons, they must adapt or die.
If history is our guide, the well paid leadership of these groups won't WANT to be unemployed. This leaves them with just one choice. They've got
to go back in to the shadows from whence they came. After they do a little re-inventing, they'll be back. Hating the United States is big business,
and they know it. Their success gave them a certain standing with the American media, which allowed them to operate in the open. Now that the old
business model is broken, its time to go back to the drawing board. Once they do this, they'll be back in ways that'll scare you.
Al Qeada is being hunted to the edge of extinction. If nothing else, its becoming too expensive for them to operate as they do now. Their leadership
has to change with the times, or they face ruin. From their point of view, there's too much money involved to justify resisting these changes. New
recruits are easy to get, and the money they make is nearly untraceable. HAMAS is about to become a political party. Their again, the leadership
faces the loss of untracked billions if they just go with the flow. Political parties are corrupt, but they are also answerable (in some measure) to
the governments they inhabit. If they don't change their organization names and come up with new ways of doing things, men like Osama Bin Landen
risk becoming irrelavant.
Sounds impossible? Consider this. Yasir Arafat refused to change. Neither he nor his organization (the PLO) adapted to the aftermath of a
post-Soviet world. The events of 9/11 proved that at least one man and one group understood the need for change, as it related to their cash flow.
The American press would like to foster the myth that Bin Laden lives in a cave. People like him with access to untracked money live where they
please. Its not a stretch. Groups like HAMAS and Al Qeada have been re-inventing themselves to some degree for centuries. The next 'evolution'
for them seems rather obvious.
The New Terrorism
You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to know how trans-national terrorism will take root in this country. A handful of organizations are
already here and growing. If you're a news junky, you've heard about them on the radio or seen programs about them on t.v. The media calls them
ethnic street gangs with overseas connections. In truth, many are actually fledgling terrorist groups that operate with impunity under the watchful
eye of the U.S. Government.
Mara Salvatrucha [MS-13] has been called a Hispanic street gang with well-developed overseas connections. This group originated in El Salvador. It
has a chain of command that starts in its parent country and sprawls across the Continental U.S. The organization is just now becoming sophisticated
enough to create hidden cells. A 'cell' is a small but dedicated group that hides from public view. They are well trained, properly funded, and
As part of their insurgent-oriented training, they are taught the importance of avoiding media scrutiny. Before they can begin making and using car
bombs, or putting armed fighters in the field, they must first complete their growth/evolution. To this end, they are learning how to recruit and
train new members. They are also learning how to control money and gather intelligence.
These are tasks that most home-grown street gangs have mastered after just ten years. Gangs with overseas origins have several obstacles to overcome
before they can attain this basic level of operation. American culture, the English language, and our domestic law enforcement all pose major
problems for these groups and their anti-American agendas. Even so, they aren't being stopped. We are now seeing indications that these barriers
are no longer effective. By the end of this decade, groups like MS-13 may be sufficiently developed to begin their reign of terror on our soil.
It has been said that you should never underestimate the power of intent. The media has provided us with many examples of the 'intent' espoused by
these so-called gangs and their overseas benefactors. They actively advocate anti-American agendas that involve the use of force. In many respects,
they see themselves as modern Crusaders. They acknowledge the fact that the U.S. Government knows about them...and does nothing.
In spite of the future threat these groups pose, their numbers are small. The Federal bureaucracy has a hard time confronting small groups. Today's
departments and agencies have their sights set on larger threats like Al Qaeda and the various Palestinian terror groups. Viewed from the top, this
problem appears to be "a local matter," or "not important enough yet."
Trans-national terrorism is just what its name implies. terrorism that crosses borders. In this case, we'll be facing deeply dug-in forces that
take their orders from people outside this country. With large cash reserves and pre-positioned assets, they'll be able to pursue their agendas
inside the framework of our own legal system. The weapons they choose will be dictated by their assessment of our weaknesses. Turning us against
each other might not be as hard as you think.
With so much known to us about these threats, we should be more concerned than we are about the Federal government's lack of a response. Why are we
counseled to be afraid when we should be told be to brave? Why are we told to be docile and wait for government help when we should be told to remain
on guard? Do our elected leaders intend to exploit terrorism for their own gain?