How will Russia respond to an Iran attack?

Russia responded angrily to the US's detention of the five Irani diplomats. However, they recently struck a deal with the US which paved the way for their WTO entry. It will be interesting to see how Russia responds should the US or NATO attack Iran, or should Israel do so unilaterally.

I predict that should the US attack, without the aid of NATO, it would spark a wave of anti-US sentiments in Europe, which Russia would exploit to gain more political influence in countries such as Germany and France, partly using Gazprom to bestow favors on those countries.

A response to a NATO or Israeli attack is harder to predict, but one can assume that they would not sit by idly. Perhaps it will be necessary to bribe them with favors like the WTO membership.

Well in a way you could say they are already responding in advance by shipping into Iran their latest anti-air systems and telling Iran they can have as many as they like.

Does this mean fighting a war by proxy? Will Russian advisors be on hand to operate and train Iranian personnel in the use of the anti-air systems?

Iran actually manages to get hold of a great deal of good Russian equipment.

Would we see a return to a new "Cold War" based on the Middle East.

Other than providing Iran with weapons and expertise, what can Russia do?

I think they will attempt to exploit any anti-US feeling in Europe. The old Eastern Block countries have moving toward to West. They may well use the power of their oil and gas exports to some countries in Europe and use that influence to reduce the aid given to the US and its military.

Of course Russia with China will use all their influence in the UN and will propose a security council resolution but the US will veto it, but its the publicity that Russia will want to exploit.

What else can Russia do?

1. Russia Intelligence services have undergone a renaissance under (former KGB Boss) Putin. They dismantled the British Intel structure many years ago and have done enough to earn alot of shall we say 'respect' in their own field

2. Moscow now has more Millionaires than New York. Yes that's right. The money (dirty or otherwise) flowing in and out of Russia is at never seen before levels.

3. Russian soldiers are at least as battle hardened as Western forces thanks to Chechnya, where the latest kit has been thoroughly field tested.

4. Russian Energy companies have a strong grip on European powers which are becoming ever more reliant on their energy needs from Russia.

Finally Russia sees events in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kazak, Turkmen, Azerbajan etc and all the other former Satellite states around it (as well as Western Influence in Ukraine, Geogia etc) and now Iran, they see all this rightly or wrongly as a slow encircling manoevere of Russia itself. Just as Iran must see it with US Forces on both flanks in Iraq and Afghanistan.

China is becoming world player and a force to be reckoned with as well as the fact they are dictating terms in the buying up of oil and energy resources.

If Bush's game is so obvious to all you can be assured Putin's game is a spider web you can't see.

Of all places, why would Russia be interested in protecting Iran? Russia is/was concerned with US interference in Georgia, the Baltics, Ukraine, Tajikistan, and Serbia. These countries have historically been "close" to it. But Iran is only a client and nothing more. Russia can't possibly be sympathetic to the Iranian regime. More than likely if an attack on Iran occurs (which itself is becoming less than likely everyday), Russia will do nothing, nor can it really do much to prevent it.

But yes Putin and political/military strategists in Russia are concerned with the virtual encirclement by the US (having Iran under its' control would give US access to the Caspian Sea, and completely surround Russia from the south). Russia doesn't have many choices, but those it does have it will probably use in that case. Increased relations with Venezuela and anti-US groups in South America. A navy base in Tartus, Syria. Tightening its' control over its' gas and oil reserves, and regulating prices more closely. These are all options for Russia, but a 15 year post-Cold-War head-start gave US a really good advantage.

Russia and China have to think of the long term. After Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and Syria, who will be next? And how will it affects them? They can't do nothing until everyone is under US dominance except themselves... So at one point, they have to act, but will it be this time?

I heard that if the US attacks Iran, China will crash the US economy, because they prefer to bring down the US with them than to be surrounded. And the weaknest of the US economy would slow down the US military, US people are tired of war and of the neo-cons.

So assuming the US wouldn't have an economy to go to war, that the people of US are tired of war, China would have an advantage, population. They could attack North Korea and South Korea, the US won't do a thing, nor Japan. Japan hate South Korea and North Korea, and the US would be too poor.

We'll see.

[edit on 23-1-2007 by Vitchilo]

We already did this thread here:

www.abovetopsecret.com...