Terrorists flee Baghdad

Several sites are reporting that militants have been leaving Baghdad and heading north in droves.

Sunday bloggers in Iraq wrote that insurgents and terrorists are leaving Baghdad and moving to the area of Diyala by the dozens. They referenced a report in the al-Sabaah paper

In Diyala, politicians, religious and tribal figures demanded that their province be included in the security plan of Baghdad. This came after dozens of foreign Arab militants ran away from Baghdad to areas across Diyala in order to avoid raids by the Iraqi and American forces during the incoming security plan to secure Baghdad.

Tuesday PajamasMedia wrote an article with the same, but more detailed information based on an anonymous military intelligence officials statements.

Al Qaeda terrorists are fleeing Baghdad in advance of President Bush’s 21,500-man troop surge, a senior military intelligence officer told Pajamas Media today. Under orders from the al Qaeda commander in Iraq, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, fighters are streaming toward the Diyala region of Iraq.

Are these reports true or not? As more reports came in, I noticed that the Coalition Forces seem to have been prepared for this migration. Almost like they knew it would happen when they announced that another 20,000 troups were going to be deployed in Baghdad.

Tuesday Reuters noted:

Hundreds of people have been trying to flee the eastern Iraqi province of Diyala, close to the Iraqi-Iranian border, following a recent offensive by US and Iraqi troops in the area.
~
the offensive had been a success with the capture of about 50 insurgents who they said had taken refuge in the area.

Reuters also notes that several Diyala police officers had been arrested or transfered because of conduct contrary to their positions.

Wednesday Stratfor posted the same information, but with even more information than all the others.

The precedent is well established for insurgents to stream north when the United States steps up operations in central Iraq. In 2004, insurgents streamed north to Mosul during the battles of Al Fallujah; it would appear as if the same dynamic is playing out in advance of a potential battle of Baghdad.

In Anbar and Diyala provinces, coalition forces appear more prepared to deal with insurgents escaping Baghdad. ~ In Diyala -- where U.S. forces lack the resources to police the entire province continually -- more than 1,000 coalition troops launched a sustained three-day cordon-and-sweep operation near the town of Turki beginning Jan. 10; they killed more than 100 insurgents and captured dozens more fleeing Baghdad and hiding among the area's canal systems.

Wednesday Mercury News also noted that there was some action going on in the Diyala province.

A source close to the MNF said that 7 Iraqis were killed and 10 wounded by American helicopters bombing in supporting of Iraqi forces clashing with insurgents in Al Jazeera district north of Muqdadiya city to the east of Baqouba.

Thursday Multi-National Corps – Iraq reports that they shut down terrorist group ‘The Council’ in the Diyala province.

After a nine-day operation in the Turki Village area, soldiers from 1st Brigade, 5th Iraqi Army, together with 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, defeated “The Council,” a known terrorist group which has historically targeted families and tribes with violence throughout the region. Coalition Forces continue to maintain a presence to further the peace and stability of the area.

Are the militants leaving Baghdad? Did they flee right into a trap? Was it a setup?


[edit on 1/18/07 by makeitso]

I really hope this is true!

I hope they're not planning to nuke Baghdad (suitcase nuke, backpack nuke, briefcase nuke, etc.) and are "fleeing" in preparation of that...

Terrorists fleeing?
I believe they'd be fleeing because they knew something was coming.
OTHER than US forces.

A drastic attack on Baghdad greenzone that could possibly affect the outlying area's?

The greenzone is a prime target in my mind, especially for a GAS/nuclear strike.

Hellmutt
I hope they're not planning to nuke Baghdad

Agit8dChop
The greenzone is a prime target in my mind, especially for a GAS/nuclear strike.

Ouch.
Guess I blocked that possibilty from my mind. Wasn't there just some bigshot Iranian meeting in Syria or some such, in the last couple days?

[scuttles off to connect more dots]

This is probably because they know they'll get pwned. Theyre going to go and skitter into some other place, then as soon as the US is like hellz yeah we defeated the insurgency, youll see the headline "terrorists heading back to Iraq by droves."

If I had to bet, I'd say that the reports are psyops, intended to either justify the policy or cause some of the insurgents to actually leave the city.

One must always remember that this war is increasingly fought in the media - and the Pentagon is acutely aware of this fact. They have no problem disseminating false information to either gain tactical or political advantage.

The way I see it, it's a logical tactic. Announce a program that costs a bunch of money and puts a lot of lives at risk, and then disseminate a bunch of stories about how effective the program has proven itself in order to quiet dissent and encourage insurgents to take the initiative and leave the city.

It could very well be true, it's also logical that the insurgents would want to leave the area of the troop buildup, probably with plans to return as soon as our will for the fight has waned. If I was a terrorist, I wouldn't want to be hanging out in the area with the most enemy troops, so I can see it either way.

: shrug :

I don't suppose there's any way to really know, because with the media manipulation situation the way it is, one can never know what's real reportage and what's propaganda.

Does anyone have any info on these sources and their respective pedigrees? That might provide some clue...

Its perfectly expected that the guerillas would leave baghdad if they thought that there was going to be a large increase in troop pressence there. Guerillas DO NOT fight conventional armies head on. The hit, and run. They abandon a town when the regular army is comming in, and then reclaim it once they leave.

This really shows that there is no point at all to this Troop Surge. Baghdad may become more secure, but you're still going to have the same people destablizing the rest of the country. It has to be followed up by troop increases in the rest of the country and better follow up on running the insurgents to the ground. As it is, we're going to have good propaganda for television news, a dramatically less violent Baghdad, a 'victory' for the administration. BUt we're still going to have no control over teh country, death squads and militias challenging the government, and insurgents infiltrating the military and central government.

Then we'll leave, claiming victory, and the whole thing will fall apart. Heck, we'll probably be back in less than a decade.