Israel warns Russia on Iran arms sale, page 1

From Jpost.com

Voicing extreme concern over Russia's recent sale of advanced anti-aircraft missiles to Iran, senior diplomatic and defense officials warned Moscow Tuesday that the deal could have serious security implications that would even "get back to Russia."

Senior officials in Jerusalem said they "were not pleased" with the sale of the anti-aircraft missiles, but that Russia was a sovereign country and they could not intervene. They did, however, issue a warning: "We hope they understand that this is a threat that could come back to them as well."

Earlier Tuesday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said Moscow had sent air defense missiles to Teheran, the first high-level confirmation that their delivery took place despite US complaints. Ivanov did not specify how many missile systems had been delivered.

Russian media have reported previously that Moscow had conducted talks on selling even more powerful long-range S-300 air defense missiles to Teheran, but Russian officials have denied that. Moscow already has a $1 billion contract to build the Bushehr nuclear power plant, Iran's first.

As I understand it, the TOR-M1 will be used in conjunction with the S-300 and present a credible threat to US and Israeli aircraft and cruise missiles. What does the US or Israel have that can penetrate that defense system?

Originally posted by Bhadhidar
Consider, if Israel, as it has vorciforously claimed in the past, has No Intention of Conducting Air Strikes Against Iran, then why would they now be so concerned about Russia selling Air Defense Systems to Iran?

Well, there's has been concern for a very long time about the US or Israel not being able to stop Russian delivery of these systems to Iran. So the concern is not exactly new, such that you can tie it specifically to any supposed imminent action.

As early as 2001 there was already problems when China was deploying them in the Taiwan Strait. From NewsMax, 2001:

U.S. intelligence sources confirmed for NewsMax.com that the Chinese Army has deployed dozens of the deadly new air defense missiles directly opposite Taiwan within the past few days.

"The S-300PMU is simply a highly effective fast SAM (surface-to-air missile) that is very hard to jam and stop," stated Richard Fisher, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.

"The PLA is now placing their S-300s in bases along the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan has little defense against this effective SAM and even lacks stand-off weapons like the HARM anti-radar missile to counter the S-300. In 2001 Taiwan has little choice but to sacrifice many aircraft to take out these SAM sites in order to avoid having to cede half the Strait in the event of an air battle."

The current UN sanctions are for nuclear related materials, and do not cover these systems, so there's not been a whole lot the US or Israel can do about it other than express serious concern to the Russians. It's questionable what effect US sanctions on some Russian weapons companies have had in any attempt to reduce these sales.

Then you also have the problem that while US and Israeli leaders may get assurances from one confident Russian official about arms deals, a few rogue Russian officials may be doing the opposite. That has also been a problem for quite some time- corruption and difference between words and actions among Russian officials. G, sound familiar?

The wording 'the deal could have serious security implications that would even "get back to Russia."' That certainly implies imminence for the number of Russian scientists and training personnel in Iran- who no doubt are going to be in some target areas- if nothing else.

Originally posted by Bhadhidar
And further, not only does Israel feel threatened by Iran being enabled to provide for its own defense, against potential attackers Other Than Israel!; but goes even to the extent of issueing "veiled" threats against the Russians supplying those Defensive systems?

Transfer to Iran

To make matters worse, Pentagon officials quietly confirmed that Russia has also sold S-300 missiles to Iran.

According to defense intelligence officials, joint Russian/Iranian crews currently man two S-300 units just outside of Tehran and Iranian Army soldiers are now undergoing operational training on the advanced missile system in Moscow.

The Russian missile sale to Iran may alter the defense equation as viewed by the Pentagon and the oil rich Persian Gulf.

There is no question the S-300 missile is a threat to the air forces of U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Japan, and Taiwan. None are equipped with aircraft that can counter the new Russian missile.

And that was in 2001. Accurate information on exactly what variant of the S-300 the Iranians may have now is sketchy. But if the Russians have secretly sold them the Antey-2500 S-300VM variant, it could complicate matters pretty seriously, especially for any unilateral Israeli air attack. The ever increasing size of the US buildup in the Gulf, 600 Patriot missiles being deployed regionally, and F16's in Turkey, it's kinda looking to me like any attack on Iran would likely be coordinated jointly at this point with Israel. And not unknown to regional allies.

What I wonder still is

What is Russia's Likely Response To Israeli Strikes on Iran?

Israel ain't the only one doing the warning:

From Russia Warns Israel Against Military Attack on Iran :

Russia sent messages to Israel through U.S. intermediaries recently, voicing opposition to a possible military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, The Jerusalem Post reported Thursday.

The newspaper claims that while Israel and Russia have good relations and a direct line of communications, the Russians chose to use the U.S. to deliver this message of military restraint out of a belief that Jerusalem pays closer attention to messages from Washington.

According to assessments reaching Jerusalem, while the Russians don’t want to see Iran get the bomb, they believe this may still be a decade away and that in the meantime diplomatic efforts might succeed in keeping Tehran from reaching that point. Moscow is concerned any military conflagration would eventually spill over the Russian-Iranian border into the Caucasus, Central Asia and even Chechnya, and be detrimental to Russian interests.

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