Strike on Iran might occur in March, Dutch bank report says

Robertson, chief economist of the Dutch bank ING, in London wrote a report concerning the consequences on the financial market of an attack on Iran.
ING does seriously take the possibility of a massive unexpected attack, which would have a severe impact on financial markets.

He has thoroughly studied the subject and if they would determine the possibility to be small they would not have publicized the report, I heard.

Here you can read some interesting paragraphs:

The background

An imminent attack would seem unlikely, given the weakness of
the Israeli and US administrations, and hopes for regime change in Iran.
However, Iran’s threats to Israel’s existence, and fears that it will acquire
nuclear weapons within two years, suggest that President Bush may
sanction action before he leaves office at the end of 2008.

However, within a month the US will have two aircraft carrier battle
groups and a new expeditionary Marine strike force in the Persian Gulf,
which might provide a shield for an Israeli bombing of Iran’s facilities. Israel
reportedly has the weaponry to at least delay the nuclear programme.
A key imponderable is the extent of Iranian retaliation.

Source - PDF

Mod Edit: External Source Tags – Please Review This Link.

[edit on 15/1/2007 by Mirthful Me]

An interesting article from the Economist related to the report:

One big worry for America would be the effect of a short air war in Iran on world oil supplies. Here a new note from the investment bank ING is relatively reassuring*.

True, Iran produces 4m barrels of oil a day, twice what Iraq was producing in 2002: but spare capacity in OPEC countries has soared over the past 1-2 years to almost 4m barrels a day, more than enough to substitute for Iranian exports.

America, too, has been building up its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is now 95% full and could sustain the country for 75 days without a drop of imported oil—though in practice supplies would continue to be available from Nigeria and other unaffected producers.


Source

Mod Edit: External Source Tags – Please Review This Link.


[edit on 15/1/2007 by Mirthful Me]

I don't know.....................

I'm still waiting for the world to end like it was supposed to last summer/fall.

Eventually someone will be right.....I'm guessing late '07/early '08

The information contained in the above pdf. financial report (albeit speculative) reads as sound imho.

A recent UPI article also included the CVN Reagan as also heading to the region as support listing the two remaining fully operational CSG’s as surge ready. Three carrier groups and a destroyer battle group would then be on station in the Gulf region at the same time roughly in February 2007.

Personally, I see the build-up as both a pressure building against Iran as well as a defensive posture to protect the Gulf. The pressure portion seems to be working a little. I beleive some worries are being realized.

The defensive posturing, imho, is a readiness force in the event Israel does indeed attack. The USN with various other navies exercise Arabian Gauntlet every so many years, in the event Iran retaliates by attempting to control/attack/close the shipping through the strait.

If Iran attacks the US (or coalition vessels) and/or attempts to close the strait in retaliation, the US will be positioned as the defender and Iran as the militant aggressor.


mg

Originally posted by missed_gear
If Iran attacks the US (or coalition vessels) and/or attempts to close the strait in retaliation, the US will be positioned as the defender and Iran as the militant aggressor.

This will be a crucial aspect of the conflict; Iran is fully aware of that. The US raid on the US office did cause protests but no threats from the Iranian side.

You might be right that the US/British navy deployment is going to act as a back up for Israel. If Israel attacks (and Israel doesn't listen to anyone nor care about their opinions), Iran will probably retaliate by launching missles into Israel, which will be an excuse for the US to start the air raids.

Outcome: mass civilian casualties on Iranian, Israeli and Palestinian sides.