Is the Iraq war winnable?

Can the US win the war in Iraq?

Assuming the US does everything in its power like increasing troop levels and having more effective leadership in place, can the US win in Iraq?

When asking whether the US can win in Iraq, we must also ask what we mean by victory. Is victory defined by avoiding World War III? Is it leaving Iraq a stable country? Is it leaving Iraq a democracy? Is it defined by leaving Iraq a stable democracy that has a good relationship with the US and its alies?

If the US leaves now or in 2 years or in 5 years; most likly alsadrs militia will take over in shiite areas and battle with other shiite militias like sciri and the Sunni led insurgents (most notably The Islamic Army in Iraq, 1920's Revolution Brigades, and some others will take over in Sunni Area's and the Kurds will hold the north. Places like Mosul and Kirkuk will breakdown between Kurds on one side and Sunni Arabs, Turkomen, and Assyrians on the other (Turkomen and Assyrians tend to ally themselves with moderate Sunni Arabs as do Arab Christians.) I suspect the country will fracture in a way similar to the way Lebanon fractured during the 1975-1990 civil war-with ethnic militias controlling there own areas, sporadic fighting, different militias will seize control of different oil fields.

*OR*

The Sunni led insurgency will take control of the entire country except for the Kurdish north just north of Mosul and Kirkuk.

Under no circumstance will the US installed governement exist-it basically is nothing and commands no respect from Iraqis who view it as a puppet, it's "Army" is just a few poorly armed and trained police type forces who take orders and receive cash payment from the Americans, they will disintegrate as soon as the occupation is ended.

I'd say this war isn't winnable. Something might spark a WWIII in the Iraq war. If not, then N. Korea might, but that's not the point. It is very improbaable that we will have total control of Iraq. The people do whatever they want there, and I don't blame them! There isn't really much control in the contry much less a stable government. I would do whatever I want! My opinion is we aren't gonna win this war. Something is gonna happen and that something is gonna end up escalating everything to what possiblly could be WWIII. Of course all of this is all opinion. I'm not saying that what i say is right. This is just what I think.

Its been nearly four years since the former government of Iraq and its army was defeated and yet the violence in the country is only growing.

There will be no "win" for the USA. Individuals within the USA will win monentarily, but not the nation.

US is changing some tactics, but the overall strategy of the occupation is completely wrong, and the war will not be won the way it's going. It's troops are getting bogged down fighting the insurgents and trying to control the civil strife, while they wait for the new Iraqi Democracy to magically take shape and defend itself in a matter of years.

You can't build a democracy from the ground up in less than a decade (maybe even in several decades) when the entire country is in the midsts of war. You can attempt to create a Democratic government if the conditions are peceful. But with Iraq, nothing short of military dictatorship will result in stability. The country needs a tough and decisive leader, who is backed by the Iraqi military, and who is guaranteed to be loyal to the US. Heck, create another Saddam- only one that is a US puppet.

A self-sufficient Democracy simply cannot be created in the midst of war, in a place that still has a dictatorial mentality. The outcome of the war depends not so much on the US army's actions (it will never destroy all of the insurgents and hostile factions), but on what sort of government Iraq will have. Democracy that is in place now (if it can be called that), will crumble as soon as US leaves, and likely even before it leaves. Dictatorship is the only way out.

And assuming that the war was fought for reasons other than to bring Democracy to Iraq - an assumption one would be hard-pressed to contradict- this could yeild a win for the US in that the country would be stable and under indirect US control.

[edit on 26-1-2007 by maloy]