posted on Jan, 11 2007 @ 09:41 AM
Admittedly, Gary Shilling is a reknown bear economist. But when he speaks, you should listen. He was correct numerous times in the past regarding
recession, especially when he said the tech sector was headed to a meltdown in 1999.
This time Shilling is saying housing
prices will collapse, spurring a global recession deeper than the last one!
That's frightening, but when you look at the facts -- especially
the liquidity glut affecting the world right now -- it's probable that the U.S. economy will take a deep hit this year.
On the bright side, he sees a recovery in 2008. One can only hope. My view is that most consumers' financial health is intrinsicly tied to their
housing values. When those deflate -- and I predict a 50% drop in some parts of the country, as it stands now, we're seeing 20% drops and the crash
is only getting underway -- consumer spending will go into shock. If this doesn't lead to an all-out depression, then the recession will be so deep
it could take the better part of a decade to climb back out.
And for those of you who are "gold hawks" -- the ones who believe you ought to throw your entire weight into precious metals -- I'd air on the side
of caution. Shilling warns of a commodities crash, which has been long overdue. While gold may not crash, per se, you won't see those $800 to $1,000
per ounce prices again. Why? Well, if consumer spending drops, then people aren't buying as much jewelry and extravagent gifts. That means gold
If you want more insight from my "bear's lair," let me know.