Israel Plotting Tactical Nuclear Strike on Iranian Nuclear Facilities

Originally posted by ThePieMaN
Possible fallout could affect neighboring countries if something should go wrong.

Any ideas on wind patterns blowing fallout onto US Afghanistan coalition troops? Iran wind varies seasonally?

www.britannica.com...

Low-pressure systems in Pakistan generate two regular wind patterns: the shamal, which blows from February to October northwesterly through the Tigris-Euphrates valley, and the “120-day” summer wind, which can reach velocities of 70 miles (110 km) per hour in the Sistan region near Pakistan. Warm Arabian winds bring heavy moisture from the Persian Gulf. Elevation, latitude, maritime influences, seasonal winds, and proximity to mountain ranges or deserts play a significant role in diurnal and seasonal temperature fluctuation.

Also, found this on Israel wind patterns.

www.weathernotebook.org...

Middle East Winds
Thu May 15, 2003
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Hi, I'm Bryan Yeaton for The Weather Notebook. As winds of war blow across the Middle East, our attention has often been focused on the winds of weather that have played an important role in the conflict.

Wind is a major force in Middle East weather which has a strong monsoon character. "Monsoon" originally referred to changes in seasonal wind patterns and derives from the Arabic word "mausim," simply meaning "season." During the summer monsoon, winds generally blow toward the hot interior of the Arabian Peninsula.

For example, the north/northwesterly "Bad-I-Sad-O-Bist-Roz" wind blows into Iran in June and persists for as long as a 120 consecutive days.

Some Middle East winds stir large, disrupting sand and duststorms. In fact, the alluvial plains of Iraq and Kuwait have the highest duststorm frequency in the Middle East.

Hot, dry desert winds have been given special names across the Middle East. For example, in the summer monsoon, the northwesterly Shamal blows over Iraq and into the Persian Gulf. The Egyptian Khamsin wind literally means "lasting 50 days."

The Sirocco, an Arab word for "Easterly," is a hot, dry, dusty desert wind blowing across the region and often into Europe. It is also known as the Sharkiye in Jordan, Sharav in Israel, and Simoom in Arabia. The dusty Seistan north wind in eastern Iran can reach hurricane force.

Not all Middle East winds are unwelcomed. A west wind of Arabia named the Laawan, "the helper," assists farmers in winnowing their grain.

Originally posted by smallpeeps
Any ideas on wind patterns blowing fallout onto US Afghanistan coalition troops? Iran wind varies seasonally?

I really wouldn't know but to me wind is wind..it will go wherever it pleases. It would be a shame if someone not even being part of the conflict were to be affected by it. Iraq, Pakistan, Afganistan, India, Bangladesh maybe other places as well. I remember seeing some sort of Flash animation that showed possible projections but who knows how accurate it was. The spread was all over the place. It could even end up here in the USA for all we know.

Is it really worth the risk to find out?

Pie

Leaked? If you know how Israel works and know their past history you would understand why I'm laughing. No doubt Israel has plans to attack Iran (and they've had them for a very long time) be it with conventional weapons or not. Are they training for it? Maybe, but these "leaks" are nothing but an attempt to apply pressure while not being obvious about it.

watching this f´d up world from just from my point of view...
pre-epmptive strike to israel from iran would be just as justified as usa´s attack to iraq after 9-11.
I hate extremist muslims but I hate extremist USAstssds,,,what ever that is....
and everyone knows that israel is just another state far away from the US...
I just had to post this ...

Originally posted by finallianstallion
watching this f´d up world from just from my point of view...
pre-epmptive strike to israel from iran would be just as justified as usa´s attack to iraq after 9-11.
I hate extremist muslims but I hate extremist USAstssds,,,what ever that is....
and everyone knows that israel is just another state far away from the US...
I just had to post this ...

yeah I know that that the attack to iraw wasnt pre-emptive.....or was it.....

Originally posted by the_sentinal
here's the link read it for yourself, I dont see how you think that china & U.S. can't live without each other, remember it's russia with whom china conduct's it war games with, not the U.S., sure our economies are intertwined with each other but the future of the chinees economy is at stake when Iranian oil is so precious to them.

The Chinese economy does not rely on CHinese oil, it relies on business with the US and Europe. Oil coming from Iran only makes up a tiny bit of what they consume. This is why China, is activley supporting oil prducing African countries and building more thatn 20 nuclear reactors at the moment, they don't want to rely on the Iranians at all.
What's even funnier with this percived relationship with Iran is that teh Chinese governemnt actively suppresses Muslims over here. They aren't going to go to war over a country which shares it's completeloppsoite ideological beliefs.

Originally posted by Mirthful Me
Iran's reaction to this story will be interesting. They seem to count on the court of world opinion, tempered with the usual rhetoric. I wonder if they'll call for U.N. interference.?

I don't think it's within the UN's charter to interfere in the "plans" of any country.

I hope your right rouge1, for the last thing anyone wants to see is a world war, but for those who believe the bible and revelations the part about the king of persia coming against Israel with an alliance of nations, it tends to make one speculate on the possibilities of this actually happening....dont forget...Iran want this war!

This puts virtually all of Europe within range of the soon-coming nuclear tipped Iranian missiles — and at the whim of Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Remember him? He is the one who believes Allah has chosen him to fulfill an “end time” Muslim prophecy by starting a world apocalypse in which the long-awaited ‘Mahdi’ (Muslim Messiah) will appear and subject all survivors to Allah.

Remember this, when Iran gets nuclear capability Europe is then within range of their missiles something to think about.

Originally posted by the_sentinal
IRemember this, when Iran gets nuclear capability Europe is then within range of their missiles something to think about.

Not yet. Iran's longest range missile currently is the Shahab-3 that has a range of about 1300 km. The -5 and -6 variants would have the range but there are no credible reports of it even at the test stage let alone oeprationaly deployed.

You need at least 2000km more or less to hit some of Europe and 4000 to hit parts of the UK France etc. THis is one reason the US wants to place interceptors in Poland. The ABM missiles at Vandenberg and Ft. Greely simply to not have the cross range speed to cover Europe.

One item I did forget was the reported sale of KH-55 missiles from the Ukraine to China and Iran. The cruise missiles have a notational range of 3000 km and could be adapted to carry a nuclear weapon. The missiles are reported to be in bad shape, but the Chinese and the Iranians have proven themselves to be quite adept at reverse engineering weapons systems. A derivative cruise missile could easly hit Isreal as well as parts of central Europe

[edit on 1/7/07 by FredT]

Originally posted by the_sentinal
I hope your right rouge1, for the last thing anyone wants to see is a world war, but for those who believe the bible and revelations the part about the king of persia coming against Israel with an alliance of nations, it tends to make one speculate on the possibilities of this actually happening....dont forget...Iran want this war!

How do you come up with the conclusion Iran wants this war? Haven't you been watching the news and reading online news headlines how Israel has been threatening to strike Iran as well as trying to bring sanctions against Iran since the 1990's for non-existant nukes? Seems to me that these revelations would not be accurate if Israel has been inciting to war. Then again these revelations cannot be accurate since this was not God allowing the return of Israelites to Israel, this was manipulated by the hand of men.

Remember this, when Iran gets nuclear capability Europe is then within range of their missiles something to think about.

This is something Israel has said would occur, not a factual threat. Iran has never threatened to attack Europe or the USA.

Just remember during the Iran-Iraq war Israel attempted to convince Iran to do her dirty work and requested them to attack Osirak. Seems like they are trying the same thing again with EU and USA to get someone else to spill their blood in Israels name.

Is Israel the only nation planning a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities?

For months now government agencies have been pushing for a test of a 700-ton mixture of ammonium nitrate and fuel oil above an existing underground tunnel at a Nevada Test Site. Reason for such a test? According to various sources the DOD says "America's adversaries are increasingly using underground tunnels and bunkers for military command centers and munitions storage."

While not directly naming Iran, one can speculate that such a test would help in assessing how well a .7kt nuclear bunker buster would take out such underground facilities and storage areas in Iran.

The test has been on hold for some time now, because of "environmental concerns" The test could kick up a dust cloud at the Nevada test site which could contain radioactive material left over from nuclear tests done there decades ago.

However the push to test "Divine Strake" continues.

Find out much more about this planned test here:

www.nv.doe.gov...

Most of the information available on the above linked page is in downloadable PDF format.

[edit on 7-1-2007 by UM_Gazz]

I will apologise if anyone has written this kind of theme ( guilty of not reading all the threads ) but here goes...Israel and its military are ultra secretive and extremely careful of not advertising their military moves.

They would never allow any forwarning of an impending attack to any outsiders let alone the main stream news that has been repeatedly posting this kind of information. They bombed the Iraqi nuclear installation before it was fuelled with rods in the blink of an eye, that window of opportunity has gone with the Iranian reactor which is already fuelled up.

This has to be disinfo or a something worse, perhaps they are goading Iran into a pre-emptive attack which would be genocide for the whole Arab nations as they wouldn't be able to just Nuke Iran...they would have to go FULL ON and the repurcussions aren't good.

Great info FredT.

To do this, Israel is going to be upsetting the Muslim world considerably, and whichever country they flew over would be under considerable stress to prove that it didn't collaborate.

The Saudi government could concievably be in big domestic trouble if they failed to stop an Israeli strike violating their airspace, and nobody wants that because as dangerous as they might be, their population could be more dangerous.

They'd be getting us into a world of trouble if they overflew Iraq, even though that is the most logical route. Maybe they'd dare, but they'd have to absolutely have us by the short and curlies for us to tollerate that.

It seems to me that the logical route for Israel would be to hit the Syrian Airforce in anticipation of a war after the strike, thus buying clear skies over the less inhabited East of Syria in which to refuel. Syria would play in to a pretext well anyway- with false flag ops in the runup they could claim that Syria and Iran had started it.

Syrian Airbases
The one in the center near As Sukhnah is most remote, while the one at Dayr az Zawr is further East, but lies at the crossing of two highways and is nearer to several border towns, which increases the likelihood of quick resistance.

Even from Dayr az Zawr though, the round trip just back to that base would be pushing it, especially when you consider that they'd have to stray North to make sure it was Turkey rather than the US who they ticked off. I think what they'd really have to do is sneak in lone planes with the nukes and be prepared to ditch in the gulf for a pickup arranged either with the USN or some civilian vessel- afterall, no sense sending in a destroyer to get sunk at the straight on the way out.

Those options seem less than workable.

That brings us to the obvious plans B and C.

B- Just use a ballistic missile.

C- America does it and Israel takes credit/blame, even if that really doesn't change the mind of anyone outside of America.


I think if we're talking a nuke, why not use a BM is the biggest question. The planes are only helpful because they might be less trackable than a BM and might avoid blame if not for the fact that Israel is one of only 2 obvious suspects, at least as far as I can put my finger on at the moment.


So as thin as every angle seems, I think we also have to strongly consider the propaganda aspects of such a leak. Israel could be leaking it to press America to act first, or to press America to act more decisively than we may have already secretly promised to.

For those who think its strange that Israel may have plans for the same and its that this information is available to the media, note that the BBC had an extensive documentary on the possibilities of a Israeli pre-emptive strike (conventional ofcourse) on Iranian nuclear facilities. Many Israeli officials (military and political) went on the record saying that this was a possibility and plans have been made and the option is open.
So there..

Now Israel has been wary of Islamic N-bombs forever.
I have a thread in which I propose that Pakistan is a more immediate nuclear threat than Iran esp since Iran is a decade or so from weaponsing its nuclear capabilities.
The thread gives detailed information of how wary Pakistan was of joint Indo-Israeli pre-emption, and the quaint notion of Pakistan having contingency retaliatory plans to take out Dimona!

Note:Apologies for the off-topic banter here and there !

Pakistan more of a nuclear threat to Israel than Iran

Will Iran have such daring counter plans on Dimona?
They have their spec-ops etc. so no ruling it out!
All your thoughts on my thread above and the possibilities of a retaliation on Dimona are welcome..

Agree with Mazzroth, Israel would not telegraph such a move. Soooo much easier for America to strike, they're just playing along. Second Carrier Group is enroute. As if we need it. Stealth B-2 Spirits out of Diego Garcia, Whiteman.

Potential Israeli Unilateral, just the reason we're looking for right? Done deal. Daniel Chapter 8 for believers!

No need to talk capability with the US. Just whining.

Most of the estimates, particularly those by the UCS are dead wrong. Even a small nuclear detonation would create a sufficiently large instantaneous blast globe (say 1,000-2,500ft across) to obliterate any chemical weapons within 'rather more than the room next door'.

Nor is is likely that a full 1.2MT detonation would be required. The B61-11 would give you sufficient strata coupling to destroy targets beneath 70ft of mixed RFC and Dirt at little more than .5-2KT. Depending on local population densities, there would certainly be downwind effects but /hardly/ 3 million casualties worth.

For comparison, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks were full airbursts in which the initial X-Ray + Thermal pulse flash vaporized an area half a mile across and the secondary blast fronts (when they met) another 5,000ft or so out sucked HUGE amounts of radiological uplift into the atmosphere.

Yet there were fewer total deaths at each sight than during the Tokyo fire bombings several months before.

As to strike radius, I agree with FredT in that I don't think the Israelis have the AAR capabilities to pull this off and _if they tried_ (without LO options) they would not be able to escape the combined response as a single A2A engagement on the return trip would destroy their fuel margins, even if they pushed a recovery force deep into Jordanian or Iraqi airspace.

OTOH, there are persistent rumors that the Israelis in fact tested a nuclear cruise missle over the southern Indian Ocean a few years back, all the way up to subcritical or low yield wardet 'hidden under storm clouds'. If they choose the hard kill route, it will almost certainly be with Cruise weapons derived from Popeye or Delilah and launched from their new 212 class sub and it need not be nuclear.

KNOWING THIS, all the would be criers over yields and downwind threats to civillian populace appear to me to just be trying to taint the cold facts of things with bad science and hysteria so as to meet the scope of their own peacenik agenda.

Given the danger that the Iranians represent (and have represented, for nigh on 25 years) as terrorist backers and bag men, showing uncertainty as 'humanist motivated' signs of wavering majority resolve is probably the worst thing that we could do.

If 'the world' went nuts over this yet Iran _KNEW_ the U.S., Saudi and Israel AS NATIONS would stand our ground as a 'you asked for this' unmoved body politics, it would be a greater incentive than any other economic or strategic blackmail or bribery to in fact cease the enrichment process.

God Knows, as usual, the NATO/EUians are worthless negotiators and the UN has two permanent seated members whose sole interests lie in making a profit from Americans chasing their WMD proliferation efforts all over the world.

Lastly, while the Iranians have definitely learned from Osirak the value of a distributed manufacturing approach with many lines of development vice one, I do have to wonder if there are not locussing methods available, either unique to the process of development (component brought together for weaponization or installation on a delivery system).

Or to a heavy structural facility to enable said process which could legitimately prevent the overall process from moving forward.

If there are not, if you really can put a gas diffusion/centrifuge capability in every toolshed and school gymnasium, it seems the only realistic alternatives to acceptance of yet another nuclear state are elimination of the scientists and outright decapitation of the leadership.

Again, neither of these actions require nuclear ceiling breach and some or all may be relevant to specific 'personalities' whose loss as program coordinators could be both 'inexplicable' and highly disruptive to the overall effort. Even as their vanishing into the black prison system could imply interrogation for a more complete data set on what is really happening, where (something I'm not convinced we have the full picture of, especially if it is in fact international through Pakland and Norkia).

Ideally, this would happen using indigenous personnel as a 9/11 lesson in reverse and be so singularly targeted so as to make the Iranians look like horses asses for 'failing to fear themselves'.

After their recent cluster bleep in handling the recent kidnappings, I increasingly doubt if Israel has the chutzpah or competencies to coordinate such an effort and of course the Americans always have sucked at HUMINT. But that is the 'indirect route' I would take.


KPl.

Yeah isreal should nuke iran and then that gives good reason for all arab and muslim nations to Nuke up, lets face they need a deterrant with current events getting worst.

Originally posted by reaper2

Yeah isreal should nuke iran and then that gives good reason for all arab and muslim nations to Nuke up, lets face they need a deterrant with current events getting worst.

No one thinks about this. People don't also think about Is Israel going to do this each and every time an Arab country wants to get Nuclear Technology?. Will we have to hear the propaganda and threats each time someone not on the Israeli friendly list will want Atomic power plants? This is just ridiculous.

Israel affords itself with whatever it wants. Missiles, Tanks, Rockets, Guns, Armor,Fighter jets, Attack Choppers,Nuclear Power plants, Heavy water plants, Nuclear weapons, Chemical weapons, Biological weapons and Arms sales to South African nations such as Angola. How is it that this 1 select country can do all this and then dictate who should and shouldn't have something on its "Do Not Have" List?

The Little Dictator of the Middle East cannot have its cake and eat it too for much longer. Will other leaders wonder if they will have to go through this crap too?

Originally posted by ch1466

Nor is is likely that a full 1.2MT detonation would be required...

It is not very plausible that Israel possesses N-weapons in the megaton range and definitely not ones that are deliverable by aerial platforms.

Israel is not stupid enough to start a nuclear war in the Middle East.

The backlash would be beyond words and press statements. Russia and China both have economic interests in that area, I strongly doubt Russia will allow anything to happen in the terms of military action against Iran.

It might be what we call "boardroom gossip". Lets hope there is not a nuclear strike.