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A Civilian Experiment

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posted on Jan, 4 2007 @ 04:39 AM
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Count me in. Eastern Vancouver Island B.C. here. Over the years there have been numerous sightings locally but were dispelled as the usual 'weather balloons etc. Somehow the people who saw them have a very hard time buying into the official explanations. I look forward to seeing where this goes. G




posted on Jan, 4 2007 @ 04:46 AM
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Im sorry but what you propose we do is what most people interested in ufos
do all the time: which is looking up to the sky every now and then.

And for the want of a life im not going to spend 2,3 hours staring up at a grey
night sky trying to tell the difference between a plane and a supposed ufo.

Its hardly an experiment.



posted on Jan, 4 2007 @ 09:24 AM
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Byrd and the Sneakoid,

Skywatching and looking at stars can gain sightings, but because data gained is not related in any way, you lose any control of being able to interpret your data. Contacting certain groups may be beneficial in certain cirumstances, but more as a backup, not a basis.

Yes you may have a time, data and place but it just doesnt work.

Let me explain.

Say you want to get a reasonable estimate of how many red cars are on the road for example. You wouldn't sample by noting red cars no matter the time, date or location. You would be biasing your data. If you take a set time with set dates and locations, you can gain valuable interpretations of your data using statistical mathematics. Polls concerning politics are done a a very similar fashion. The idea is to keep your samples as random as possible. Results for even small surveys can give an incredibly accurate picture of trends within a population.

Thanks for the support everyone. There seems to be a lot of people interested already. Hopefully we can get many more involved.

I have decided to move foward and type up a set method which will be posted in the next few days. The website is going to take a while but if we can get enough people to help us reasonably soon we can start collating data almost immediately.

This is going to be long and possibly quite boring but the results have the potential to be amazing. You could just take a time out listen to music in the backyard while watching. Certain issues can be solved with a little discussion as I realise people are not robots and have committments.

Depending on our success, we could discover trends that are not immediately aparent. This has the potential to gain a great amount of insight into the area by comparing the data in different ways.

I am on the East coast of Australia too. Groupings of people in the same relative geographic locations are perfect for our goals (though isolated sampling will be fine). I'm excited about the possibilites.

One idea for the website is to give every sampler a unique code (to protect identities from a public website, and also to remain professional in our approach). A general long/lat position would be taken from everyone and plotted onto a map of the earth. There are so many ideas rushing through me right now. Using such coordinates coupled with google earth, we can locate airports and rule out certain flight paths, etcetera.

I will be will be back with the method for reviewal in the next few days. I'm sure you can understand that this will take a bit of time and I cant just mock it up right now as it will probably take a few drafts before most issues are considered.

Spread the word guys and girls, we can make this happen.





[edit on 4-1-2007 by seenitall]

[edit on 4-1-2007 by seenitall]

[edit on 4-1-2007 by seenitall]



posted on Jan, 4 2007 @ 09:53 AM
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your approach could in theory produce observable UFO patterns over time, to zero in on, so to speak, unfortunately, you require some kind of verification, due to hoaxsters and overly imaginative people, if you will.

if you're lucky, a cellphone camera is enough to produce at least some evidence (forging pics takes more effort than posting), there are cases where you need serious magnification and a tripod to see anything. f-ex. my last sighting was at high altitude,just one dim spot, barely visible to the naked eye and not quite discernible with 10x50 binoculars.



posted on Jan, 4 2007 @ 10:20 AM
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I understand what you're saying, and yes I have considered this. Verification is one of our major problems.

The use of a camera will help alleviate this issue a little. Getting as many people in the relative same geographical position watching at the same time will also help.

Hopefully we can get some interesting data though. Verification will be quite difficult though bad data can be minimised in a number of ways. This project is going to take a lot of work.

For example...

Lets say for example that we have 500 people across a relatively large geographical space and an unknown object passes over the entire area (yes I know this is an extremely ideal situation for our means, I'm just trying to explain). Now luckily these example samplers are ALL watching at the same time, and the object passes over for the whole hour of sampling. Now lets say that 200 people spot it, take a picture/video, get compass readings and record a time. Collating this data you could find out the general route of the object (cancelling out aircraft etc) and possibly even estimate a very rough speed (which can also be used to help in verification processes).

The next step is to contact skywatchers, astronomers, possibly even UFO groups to gain additional verification of the sighting.

I know this is an extremely unlikely scenario and we are unfortunately likely to have much, much smaller numbers of participants.

Part of the reason for collating the data is to verify the information anyway. If multiple sightings can be verified to a reasonable extent then we will be on the way to success.

Photo analysis can also be considered, though it really depends on how large this project becomes. A lot of the work involved will be attempts at verification. This is why cooperation will be absolutely essential.

This project could become huge in theory. The larger the better.

The best part about all of this is that times are preset. If an object gets multiple hits in the database we hit the jackpot. If this happens numerous times, we have some solid data to work with and are well on the way to producing results. Obviously this will be an ongoing project and will take time but over time we may just get what we're after. Cooperation is the key and will go a very long way towards our potential success.

I know there are some slight problems but this is why I'm thinking this through as much as possible before posting a method.

Good idea, I haven't considered binoculars. I want as many people to be able to participate as possible though, so leeway will have to be made in the materials department. I'm sure you can understand my point. Having multiple people in similar areas should hopefully iron this issue out a little.

[edit on 4-1-2007 by seenitall]



posted on Jan, 4 2007 @ 11:53 AM
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This is great in theory ... but one problem.

You're taking, as data, human word.

Who's to say that some disinfo agent doesn't join your cause and record no UFO's when he saw 20? Or that I label 18 data points one night even though I saw nothing? I guess it goes hand in hand with some other posters ... how do you weed out the lies and the mistakes???

My guess is somewhere around 50% of all UFO sightings are actually planes or meteors rather than ETs or experimental craft. I can see you tracking down flight patterns, but assuming that's true, how can you weed out the meteors? Or space junk?

It sounds good on paper, but it's just like the typical eyewitness credibility issue ... you are damned to have erroneous data from the start.

However if this does get underway I will surely help ... I am human and I may err, but I would do my damn best to be sure I recorded my data accurately. It's everyone else that I'd worry about.

[edit on 4-1-2007 by Fiverz]



posted on Jan, 4 2007 @ 12:51 PM
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if your approach takes off, at leas the disinfo department will be working long shifts trying to take photos in the right locations at the right time. Disinfo agents may mislead sometimes but it takes effort in spades, seeing as lies have short legs


that said, i would gladly post UFO pics, location and approximate course if i managed to spot more, d'uh



posted on Jan, 4 2007 @ 02:09 PM
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What about UFO's that only show up on playback in any movie one is filming at those designated times yet were not seen at the time when those movies were recorded or when those photograph's were taken? Do those UFO's count or not?

Maybe there should be a special category for UFO's that are like this.



posted on Jan, 4 2007 @ 10:50 PM
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Points taken and they have been considered previously.

This isn't perfect. Without funding we are very limited in our methods. Ideally we would have access to a radar array and high quality recording equipment with infa-red filters. Just not going to happen though.

Keep up the discussion. I'm taking it as constructive criticism.

As of the moment, I have decided to scrap the N/S facing idea. Participants would need to make a list of times and days available. I'm busy right now but the next step is finding a randomisation program to apply to these times. Excel random number generator could be used but will probably not be appropriate for everyone.

We have a few options considering the length of the sampling period. At first were going to have to stick to 10 days over 2 weeks. The more participants we have, the longer we can stretch this out.

It would be also quite helpful if the were some ideas regarding fields for data.

Anything not thought to be an aircraft could have the following fields:

1: Colour
2: Headings
3: Time visible
4: Time sighted
5: Short Description
6: Additional Comments

Known aircraft should also be noted though only the headings and the time would be needed.

A compass, stopwatch, notepad, camera and pen would be neccessary. A video recorder and binoculars would be a significantly helpful.

Any suggestions would be appreciated.

A test run can be started in the next few days if people are ready and willing.

[edit on 4-1-2007 by seenitall]



posted on Jan, 5 2007 @ 06:58 PM
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Wow! Great seenitall! I'm ready when you are!

Just purchased a new compass and stopwatch -- have pen and leather notebook in hand and READY TO GO!



posted on Jan, 5 2007 @ 07:09 PM
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But once again:

What about UFO's that only show up on playback in any movie one is filming at those designated times yet were not seen at the time when those movies were recorded or when those photograph's were taken? Do those UFO's count or not?

Maybe there should be a special category for UFO's that are like this.



posted on Jan, 6 2007 @ 02:23 AM
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What's happened to this thread, It started off great and I thought there would be lots of interest. It seems to have died a death over the last 24 hrs.
I think that its a great idea but could have loads of niggling problems, a lot of commitment by people is needed and it has the potential to be a little embarasing when the wife enquires what you are up to.

I hope more people show an interest, even if it fails at least we had some imput in trying to solve this phenomenon.
I know that most people have a full time job and need thier eight hrs kip, but there must be many like me who don't and can spend a few hrs a week for a good cause. I would rather do this than S.E.T.I. waiting for ET to give us a call.
Back to the wife problem. I'm going to tell mine that I'm waiting for Halleys comet to pass overhead. She will still think that I'm mad but she will be none the wiser and it sounds good.

John.

[edit on 6-1-2007 by jon1]



posted on Jan, 6 2007 @ 12:24 PM
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I'm a little upset because seenitall has been posting quite a bit (a whole lot as a matter of fact) in other threads in this UFO forum during working hours for the past few days, yet in his most recent post in this thread he's saying that he's short on time and so on.... but will try to get things up and running...
The fact is, he started up this experiment proposal but then he seemed to have lost interest in it!
You've got several people from this board seenitall who want to participate in this experiment. If you are no longer interested in setting things up for it, then please let us know and we will assign that position to someone else here.



posted on Jan, 7 2007 @ 02:48 PM
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You can count me in.



posted on Jan, 7 2007 @ 07:10 PM
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Well it is mid-day here and tonight i'm going to do my first session and post the results regardless of whether the OP is still interested or not. I encourage the rest of you to do the same...

Just pick out a time slot that suits you the most, get your gear together and watch the skies. Post the start time, finish time, and everything else according to prior criteria.

Good luck to everyone!



posted on Jan, 8 2007 @ 05:46 PM
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C'mon people... just because the OP isn't interested doesn't mean this has to die away.

I did a 3 hour session last night, as promised, and have nothing out of the ordinary to report. I've got a couple of pages of analysis using the criteria higher up on this page, but they were all civilian aircraft.

If anyone else is still interested please post, or am i just wasting my time?



posted on Jan, 8 2007 @ 06:24 PM
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Count me in!! I love the idea but would agree to setting all the groundrules and particulars first.

Send me a u2u with info needed and so on!
I will check this thread every day from here on out till I see what's up!!

Peace til then of course, Mondo



posted on Jan, 8 2007 @ 08:15 PM
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Read through the thread in its entirety and the categories and facts to be recorded are all listed over several posts. Just use those (they seem fairly comprehensive) as well as logging the times you start and stop.

Don't worry about posting lists of spotted planes, but anything you class as 'unidentified' post the data on that (and a photo if you have a camera).
Good hunting!



posted on Jan, 9 2007 @ 02:20 AM
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Hi Folks.
I admire your enthusiasm for this project and I was the first to volunteer, but without many people willing to take part it won't be as intended. It was through masses of data that some sense could be made out of what we are seeing. the odd events that a few people see will just fade away with thousands of others that are reported.
No, Another thread has to be started with a different approach perhaps, I don't know.
If someone does take this onboard I will be first in line.
all the best.
john.
P.S. Before anyone suggests it, I can't take this onboard because a stroke has left me 10 pence short of a pound in the memory department.



posted on Jan, 9 2007 @ 02:29 AM
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Originally posted by jon1
Hi Folks.
I admire your enthusiasm for this project and I was the first to volunteer, but without many people willing to take part it won't be as intended. It was through masses of data that some sense could be made out of what we are seeing. the odd events that a few people see will just fade away with thousands of others that are reported.
No, Another thread has to be started with a different approach perhaps, I don't know.
If someone does take this onboard I will be first in line.
all the best.
john.
P.S. Before anyone suggests it, I can't take this onboard because a stroke has left me 10 pence short of a pound in the memory department.


Hey Jon.

Fair points, and i agree with you. I was hoping that by starting the research more would catch on but it doesn't seem that way so far.

I'll keep my own little observations going and catalogue it, and i'll post here if anything strange turns up. Apart from that all we can do is wait for a new project to come up i guess.

I can't take on the management either, namely because other things in life take the most of my time.




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