The End of the World.. as we know it

Excuse the pessimism, but everything seems to be going to hell. There is precious little in the history of humanity to inspire confidence. Easiest thing to do; get used to the idea of premature death.

So let's all just roll over and do nothing.

Brilliant.

The U.S. now burns very little oil for electricity. It is too expensive for that purpose. Coal (unfortunately very dirty), natural gas, hydro and nuclear dominate.

Transportation is going to get significantly more expensive, but there will not be mass de-industrialization, because electricity will still be available.

Plug-in hybrids ought to be far more common, letting people do their daily business
running on non-petroleum based electricity. Cheaper night-time metering will
have to be universal. Air pollution laws will have to be relaxed to allow the more
efficient diesels to dominate. Diesel-electric hybrids will be the most complicated
and expensive engine systems, but very fuel efficient.

However long-haul automobile travel---e.g. the prototypical "road trip" or car-based family vacation will be significantly more rare and expensive.

Natural gas will get more expensive (though not as bad as oil) since it is a substitute for petroleum in fuel. CNG and LPG automobile conversions will be common for those who can't afford a new hybrid.

Imported goods will be significantly more expensive because of transportation costs---it will be a foolish luxury to eat foods or other bulky items produced far away. Air travel will turn back into a rare and expensive luxury service, and passenger boats and zepplins may make a comeback for long-haul travel. Think "1930's" style.

Oil sands will supply oil, but production rate cannot be increased even remotely high enough to counteract depletion of mideast conventional oil fields.

Interesting points, mbkennel.

I just heard on the news yesterday that SUV sales are already falling off. By 15% from last year. Soon only the richest and most foolish folks are gonna be able to afford to fill them.

When gas becomes too expensive for most to afford, folks out in the suburbs are gonna suffer. They won't be able to get to their jobs.

Food is gonna start getting harder and harder to come by also. All the family farms that used to grow our foods locally have been bought out by corporations. Having to ship it in is going to jack the prices up terribly. Anyone who's got any land at all should start growing their own fruit trees, vines, vegetables and spices.

[edit on 19-09-2003 by EastCoastKid]

It doesnt matter if we find alternatives or if coal is the main source of electricity.

The reason why "cheap oil" is disappearing is because the population and demand are rising..... Fast. And it will continue at an exponential rate.

Oil is like Microsoft Windows. We have to have it and its used on a widescale. Both need replacing but the alternatives cannot be implemented on a wide-scale, without lots of compromises.

Longer trips aren't allways a necessity. I like to travel, but having a nearby paintball game in the woods would be a nice escape. Nearby camping trips are an option.

And I think that if we really push for it, an alternative clean fuel can be made a viable reality. And we just might be able to travel anywhere without damaging the environment.

Troy

Hey, did anyone hear the pResident talking about energy policy last night at his "press conference?"

Does anybody think he even understands half of what he was saying?

The world has to come to the realisation that oil was/is the problem with our technology. It's dirty, it's exhaustible (it runs out), it's expensive to find and extract.

As someone mentioned here there are lots of things that rely on oil other than power generation such as plastics etc... However... we have the ability to create synthetics these days without the need for oil.

The real issue is the viable power alternative to oil.....

Well I have to say that there are alternatives that would be better than oil already here today... but the reason we haven't seen any major roll out of this technology is to do with MONEY and POWER....

The OIL companies and ultimately the Powerful people behind the board of those companies will not let any viable power technology take off in the world cause they would looses billions of $$$.

So I think the best thing for the world is that the OIL runs out and then there is no alternative other than to take up emerging technologies...

One tech I can talk about really works.. I've seen it with my own eyes...

Basically you take two super conducting magnets that are moulded into circular disks. then you slice the disks diagonally and attach the opposite peaces together. This gives you two disks with opposing poles.

Then all you need to do is place them facing each other in a vacuum and the circular magnets begin to turn through the M currents that exists between the two circular materials..

This will turn indefinitely... non-stop... almost a perpetual motion machine, but not quite as it will eventually wind down as the charge on the super conductors lessen.

I know this is hard to follow and I know it also works cause I have seen a working proto-type.

The spinning action can be used to generate electricity by attaching the axle the magnets are on to a turbine....

However, this technology requires the help of the semi conductor industry and they in turn require funding from the oil companies so yet again it's swings and round abouts...

the oil companies cold have a hand in releasing the tech but they are equally having a hand in suppressing it.


All the best,

NeoN HaZe/

SSsssshhhhh! We're not supposed to talk about that, NH!

Seriously though, you're exactly right.

I think maybe bigOil are the ter'sts!

so whats stopping the oil companies from switching to alternatives? They can still profit off the new stuff, especially if it's in demand as much as oil.

The reason oil companies won't be switching to alternatives any time soon is that they have got a monopoly on oil; it's production and distribution. They don't have a monopoly on new techonologies. If there is a widespread shift in attitude towards fossil fuels, there would be many emerging alternatives. It is just as likely that a successful alternative will be developed (and patented) by some corporation/company/person that has nothing to do oil empires. To try and describe it better; with developed society using oil (and almost nothing else), the oil cororations know they have the entire market share, and no-one can 'bustle in'. There is no way they will be able to control and 'own' the entire market for new technologies.

Interesting times ahead. I notice that the topic is divided between those who feel it is too late for an entire world order based on oil, and those who put their faith in science.

[edit on 30-4-2005 by shadow_games]

Folks, oil isn't gonna run out just like that. If it starts to run low, the news will spread. You can't keep something secret like that for a long time with today's modern news media and so forth.

But personally, I think it is all way overblown. We'll still be using oil in 2065.

So, for those of you who see this as an issue of great importance, what are you doing now to make yourselves less dependent on oil?

Seems to me, the more independent we ourselves become, the less any of this will effect us. No?

Oil isnt running out.. We're digging deeper so it's becoming less economical to extract it. On top of that we have demand rising exponentially here in the US and India and China are stepping up to the plate as well. At our rate the demand on oil will not slow, only grow faster and faster... If oil can replenish (abiotic) there's nothing we can do to make it replenish faster and faster.. In 2065, if we're still getting a return on energy invested in extracting it, then it will be very expensive.

By that time, its probly gonna be way too expensive for the average person to even be able to purchase gasoline. Taking a 4-hour road trip (as we do now) will once again be an extravagence. Life will not be the same.

We've just got to move away from oil, it just makes sense. I think there are car companies besides the big names that are working on alternatives. And in reality, is a hybrid really that great? Aren't some cars allready pretty close to hybrid gas mileage numbers without being a hybrid?

Honestly, with enough will and persistence I think we can change this situation. If the oil companies want oil profits so bad then let them have it, the rest of the world should move on to something else. If they lose billions and go under, then that's just tough, they should have been helping to find a solution along with the rest of the world. Someone started the oil companies, and in the same way someone can start the "new fuel" industry.

Troy

4-hour road trips aren't going anywhere man. It would kill the auto industry, the fuel industry, and a whole ton of industries attached to the automobile.

No need to be such a doomsday-freak.

The reason there is no obvious replacement for oil today is not fundamentally MONEY and POWER: it is CHEMISTRY and PHYSICS.

liquid hydrocarbons are the best thing you could devise for local transportation: light, portable and high energy density.

oil companies don't have to suppress this hypothetical world-changing technology. There isn't any. Or there isn't any until 10 year oil futures are $150. (i.e. not just spot oil but long term future oil, so investors can hedge).

When that happens, everything will change.

In the USA the central change will be that people will switch to far more efficient cars.
In some ways it's good that the US population drives gas guzzlers. Because it will take little new technology to reduce oil consumption a significant amount.

That will help for a few years. But after that? Things will be much more of a problem.

At some point they will have to consider conversions of coal + natural gas to liquid hydrocarbons.

I think we have to go radically nuclear and butch up about the waste. It sucks rocks but everything else is worse.

there is no conspiracy among oil companies to suppress some world changing technology.

Suppose such a thing existed. Now, who exactly would have the money and technology and experience to develop it on a large scale? Uh.... let's say Exxon + General Electric?

The multinational oil companies right now are the bitches of the nationalized oil companies and corrupt governments of nasty places, because the amount of oil held by the capitalist companies in stable countries is very small.

So they kiss ass to murderous dictators and fundamentalists who want to nuke us. Do they really want to? No.

I think they would LOVE to tell Prince Bandar Al-Qaeda Mahmoud Bin Scuzzwad to eat camel # and die.

If they could make Saudi Arabia obsolete (and have a healthy profit margin) they would.

But they can't.

If you run the numbers and analyze things as a quantitative scientist, it's nukes or nothing.

Massive nuclear powered conversion of coal + natural gas to liquid hydrocarbons, and lots of hybrid electric cars plugged into the grid.

It's the only answer that can work instead of being a useless feel-good.

There is energy all around us, it's about harnessing it. I know some folks think there isn't a solution to oil. This type of thinking is part of the reason there hasn't been a solution brought into the open for everyone. No offense, but we need to think that it is possible first, and then we will bring about the solution.

Troy