Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle

Source:
science.nasa.gov...
science.nasa.gov...



Above: Peaks in geomagnetic activity (red) foretell solar maxima (black) more than six years in advance.

Dec. 21, 2006: Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one.
see captionSolar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

Their forecast is based on historical records of geomagnetic storms.

Hathaway explains: "When a gust of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard enough, we call it a geomagnetic storm." In the extreme, these storms cause power outages and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. Auroras are a beautiful side-effect.

Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 years and noticed something useful:. "The amount of geomagnetic activity now tells us what the solar cycle is going to be like 6 to 8 years in the future," says Hathaway. A picture is worth a thousand words:

Last big one was in 1958 where there was not a s many cellphones or iPODS
wonder what the effects will be?

Cell phones and Nothern Lights aside, Sunspot activity has been shown to have a direct relatioship to global temperature:

www-das.uwyo.edu...

Intuitively one may assume the that total solar irradiance would decrease as the number of (optically dark) sunspots increased. However direct satellite measurements of irradiance have shown just the opposite to be the case. This means that more sunspots deliver more energy to the atmosphere, so that global temperatures should rise.

I also have a problem with:

We don't know why this works," says Hathaway. The underlying physics is a mystery. "But it does work."

Doesn't sound very scientific. One could just as easily say that, past a certain point, the steepness of the increase portends the beginning of a new ice age.

Either way it's interesting.

We don't know why this works," says Hathaway. The underlying physics is a mystery. "But it does work."

Whenever you hear something like this from the scientific community, it just means that the conclusion they have found is not tested enough to be used as scientific 'fact' yet. You have to remember that if a scientist states a conclusion, and that conclusion turns out to be incorrect, that scientists future is out the window. So they play it safe, and say things along the lines of "we don't know yet".

Combine this, mix it with global warming, toss in a pinch of mayan calendar.

Serves 6+billion.

Is this pimple gonna pop, are we on the edge, the turning point where we pay the piper because of our foul pipes?

Interesting indeed.